Rankings/Columbus, GA-AL

Columbus, GA-AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17980Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -12

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Columbus experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Columbus's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and migration. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p93 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p84 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p49 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+13.7%p63

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p65

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum93

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth15

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita17

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability49

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment28

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration84

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.8%	p93
Permit Growth	-22.7%	p15
Permits/1K Pop	1.85	p17
Affordability	0.27	p49
Employment	+0.8%	p28
Net AGI Migration	-$72K	p84

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-22.7%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+13.7%

Days on Market YoY+0.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Columbus's counties diverge significantly — Muscogee County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Harris County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High23.6Limited data

3 of 7 counties scored

Columbus, GA-AL shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Muscogee County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Harris County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Muscogee CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	0	100	100
Russell County	67	Elevated	33.3%	100	50	50
Marion CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Chattahoochee CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Talbot CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Stewart CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Harris CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	50	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	54	86	57	48	28	83
2025-09	Ress	52	76	57	48	28	83
2025-07	Ress	54	77	57	48	40	83
2025-06	Hyp	56	74	57	45	58	83
2025-04	Ress	57	75	57	45	59	83
2025-02	Ress	46	10	57	38	65	83
2025-01	Hyp	47	10	57	38	71	83
2024-11	Hyp	63	79	57	43	95	83
2024-08	Ress	63	79	57	42	94	83
2024-06	Ress	62	72	57	41	94	83
2024-03	Ress	66	94	57	46	97	83
2024-01	Hyp	64	82	57	46	96	83
2023-12	Exp	56	45	57	46	84	83
2023-10	Exp	58	70	57	46	70	83
2023-08	Rec	60	83	57	51	67	83
2023-06	Rec	58	50	57	46	91	83
2023-03	Hyp	58	60	57	47	76	83
2023-02	Ress	60	61	57	47	93	83
2022-12	Ress	52	16	57	34	99	83
2022-11	Exp	51	11	57	34	99	83
2022-10	Ress	50	9	57	34	98	83
2022-09	Exp	51	14	57	38	93	83
2022-07	Exp	50	17	57	38	83	83
2022-06	Ress	52	21	57	41	89	83
2022-05	Exp	53	22	57	41	91	83
2022-03	Exp	52	17	57	40	95	83
2022-02	Rec	52	14	57	40	99	83
2021-12	Rec	54	34	57	35	92	86
2021-10	Exp	55	39	57	35	90	86
2021-08	Exp	53	25	57	34	96	86
2021-05	Exp	51	13	57	33	97	86
2021-04	Rec	51	14	57	34	93	86
2021-02	Rec	50	49	57	38	48	86
2021-01	Exp	52	65	57	38	45	86
2020-11	Exp	45	38	57	44	33	75
2020-10	Rec	43	27	57	44	32	75
2020-08	Rec	47	52	57	45	32	75
2020-05	Exp	51	87	57	46	19	75
2020-03	Exp	47	45	57	43	43	75
2020-02	Rec	49	51	57	43	47	75
2019-12	Rec	58	82	57	46	70	69
2019-11	Exp	55	67	57	46	72	69
2019-09	Exp	54	44	57	46	85	69
2019-08	Rec	53	46	57	47	79	69
2019-06	Rec	51	22	57	44	95	69
2019-03	Rec	46	15	57	42	75	69
2019-01	Rec	44	9	57	42	69	69

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022