Rankings/Columbia, SC

Columbia, SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17900Compare

Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -2

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Columbia experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Columbia's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p79 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentum

p66 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p55 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +13% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+12.5%p62

Days on Market YoY

+13.2%p72

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.7%p75

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum66

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth55

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita79

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability44

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment29

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration52

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.4%	p66
Permit Growth	+0.7%	p55
Permits/1K Pop	7.14	p79
Affordability	0.27	p44
Employment	+0.8%	p29
Net AGI Migration	+$9K	p52

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+0.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+12.5%

Days on Market YoY+13.2%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Columbia's counties diverge significantly — Richland County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Calhoun County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High19.0

6 of 6 counties scored

Columbia, SC shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Richland County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by affordability), while Calhoun County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Richland CountyRisk Driver	87	High Risk	16.7%	80	80	100
Saluda County	60	Elevated	16.7%	100	40	40
Lexington County	47	Average	16.7%	40	20	80
Kershaw County	40	Below Average	16.7%	60	0	60
Calhoun CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	16.7%	0	100	0
Fairfield County	33	Below Average	16.7%	20	60	20

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	51	57	59	43	19	52
2025-10	Hyp	50	50	59	43	22	52
2025-09	Rec	52	54	59	43	29	52
2025-07	Hyp	49	59	59	43	5	52
2025-05	Hyp	50	63	59	41	11	52
2025-02	Hyp	52	63	59	40	21	52
2025-01	Rec	54	64	59	40	35	52
2024-12	Hyp	56	84	59	44	18	52
2024-10	Hyp	53	75	59	44	13	52
2024-07	Ress	54	60	59	42	38	52
2024-05	Ress	50	48	59	40	27	52
2024-02	Hyp	52	61	59	39	26	52
2023-12	Hyp	54	73	59	43	19	52
2023-11	Exp	52	64	59	43	19	52
2023-09	Rec	54	63	59	42	31	52
2023-07	Rec	55	81	59	42	22	52
2023-06	Hyp	59	85	59	42	40	52
2023-04	Hyp	61	88	59	42	48	52
2023-03	Ress	58	71	59	38	54	52
2023-01	Ress	57	72	59	38	47	52
2022-10	Hyp	60	88	59	44	42	52
2022-08	Ress	56	76	59	37	37	52
2022-06	Ress	54	62	59	36	42	52
2022-05	Hyp	57	61	59	36	58	52
2022-04	Exp	56	60	59	36	54	52
2022-02	Exp	57	56	59	35	66	52
2021-11	Exp	56	43	59	36	59	62
2021-08	Exp	59	43	59	38	76	62
2021-05	Rec	59	39	59	37	80	62
2021-03	Rec	49	36	59	37	23	62
2020-12	Exp	48	35	59	33	36	50
2020-10	Exp	46	23	59	33	37	50
2020-09	Rec	51	38	59	35	46	50
2020-07	Rec	49	39	59	35	34	50
2020-04	Rec	47	41	59	34	23	50
2020-01	Exp	47	24	59	34	40	50
2019-11	Exp	52	53	59	36	37	48
2019-08	Exp	55	64	59	37	45	48
2019-06	Rec	57	55	59	36	66	48
2019-04	Rec	60	55	59	36	83	48
2019-03	Exp	60	58	59	37	82	48
2019-01	Exp	58	40	59	37	89	48

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022