Rankings/Columbia, SC

Columbia, SC

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 17900Compare

Risk Rank: #34 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +11

61score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Columbia's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 34th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Columbia experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump82

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capitap82

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp71

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+17.4%p67

Days on Market YoY

+4.9%p58

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.6%p40

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+2.8%p82

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+11.5%p71

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.63p82

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p45

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.4%p38

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$9Kp48

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+11.5%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Heavy building into softening demand. The construction pipeline may outrun absorption — watch for inventory acceleration in coming months.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 41.5%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Columbia's 6 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low4.2Limited data

6 of 6 counties scored

Columbia, SC shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Lexington County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Kershaw County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Lexington CountyRisk Driver	70	Elevated	35.9%	60	80	80
Richland County	70	Elevated	49.7%	40	40	100
Kershaw CountyStabilizer	55	Average	8.0%	20	60	60
Fairfield County<5%	45	Below Average	2.4%	100	20	20
Saluda County<5%	40	Below Average	2.3%	0	100	40
Calhoun County<5%	20	Low Risk	1.7%	80	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	52	59	55	42	30	48
2025-10	Hyp	50	50	59	43	22	52
2025-09	Rec	52	54	59	43	29	52
2025-07	Hyp	49	59	59	43	5	52
2025-05	Hyp	50	63	59	41	11	52
2025-02	Hyp	52	63	59	40	21	52
2025-01	Rec	54	64	59	40	35	52
2024-12	Hyp	56	84	59	44	18	52
2024-10	Hyp	53	75	59	44	13	52
2024-07	Ress	54	60	59	42	38	52
2024-05	Ress	50	48	59	40	27	52
2024-02	Hyp	52	61	59	39	26	52
2023-12	Hyp	54	73	59	43	19	52
2023-11	Exp	52	64	59	43	19	52
2023-09	Rec	54	63	59	42	31	52
2023-07	Rec	55	81	59	42	22	52
2023-06	Hyp	59	85	59	42	40	52
2023-04	Hyp	61	88	59	42	48	52
2023-03	Ress	58	71	59	38	54	52
2023-01	Ress	57	72	59	38	47	52
2022-10	Hyp	60	88	59	44	42	52
2022-08	Ress	56	76	59	37	37	52
2022-06	Ress	54	62	59	36	42	52
2022-05	Hyp	57	61	59	36	58	52
2022-04	Exp	56	60	59	36	54	52
2022-02	Exp	57	56	59	35	66	52
2021-11	Exp	56	43	59	36	59	62
2021-08	Exp	59	43	59	38	76	62
2021-05	Rec	59	39	59	37	80	62
2021-03	Rec	49	36	59	37	23	62
2020-12	Exp	48	35	59	33	36	50
2020-10	Exp	46	23	59	33	37	50
2020-09	Rec	51	38	59	35	46	50
2020-07	Rec	49	39	59	35	34	50
2020-04	Rec	47	41	59	34	23	50
2020-01	Exp	47	24	59	34	40	50
2019-11	Exp	52	53	59	36	37	48
2019-08	Exp	55	64	59	37	45	48
2019-06	Rec	57	55	59	36	66	48
2019-04	Rec	60	55	59	36	83	48
2019-03	Exp	60	58	59	37	82	48
2019-01	Exp	58	40	59	37	89	48

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023