US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Columbia, MO

Columbia, MO

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 17860Compare
Risk Rank: #258 of 274Month: 2026-06
32score
Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Columbia's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 258th of 274 metros. Fundamentals suggest limited near-term risk.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp76
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Permits per Capitap56
Permits per 1,000 residents
Price Momentump23
12-month HPI change
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumBelow Avg
+0.6%p23

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk
-23.6%p14

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral
4.72p56

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk
0.24p15

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk
+2.0%p8

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated
-$28Kp76

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable
Bank Lending Standards
-3.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-38 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+199 bpsElevated
Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.90Elevated
Completion-Permit Divergence
-5.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2
Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal
YoY Permit Growth
-23.6%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data
Largest SectorGovernment 48.1%
7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History
MonthScore
2026-0537
2025-1242
2025-1065
2025-0965
2025-0863
2025-0658
2025-0460
2025-0269
2025-0166
2024-1264
2024-1068
2024-0871
2024-0673
2024-0472
2024-0368
2024-0168
2023-1169
2023-0971
2023-0872
2023-0671
2023-0568
2023-0365
2023-0263
2022-1261
2022-0960
2022-0670
2022-0568
2022-0466
2022-0260
2022-0166
2021-1159
2021-1060
2021-0853
2021-0558
2021-0348
2021-0147
2020-1252
2020-1053
2020-0852
2020-0655
2020-0559
2020-0361
2020-0262
2019-1260
2019-0957
2019-0858
2019-0660
2019-0558
2019-0358
2019-0162
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2026-Q1
Permits2026-06
Income2024
Employment2026-06
Migration2023