Columbia, MO
Executive Summary
Columbia's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 226th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.
Columbia experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.
Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.
Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.
Cycle Phase
Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while permit growth provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
CoolingRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.
Employment Concentration
Employment
Limited dataInternal Structure
Columbia's counties diverge significantly — Boone County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Cooper County, making the metro average potentially misleading.
Columbia, MO shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Boone County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Cooper County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).
| County | Score ▼ |
|---|---|
Boone CountyRisk Driver | 88 |
Howard County<5% | 38 |
Cooper CountyStabilizer | 25 |
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 61 |
| 2025-09 | 65 |
| 2025-08 | 63 |
| 2025-06 | 58 |
| 2025-04 | 60 |
| 2025-02 | 69 |
| 2025-01 | 66 |
| 2024-12 | 64 |
| 2024-10 | 68 |
| 2024-08 | 71 |
| 2024-06 | 73 |
| 2024-04 | 72 |
| 2024-03 | 68 |
| 2024-01 | 68 |
| 2023-11 | 69 |
| 2023-09 | 71 |
| 2023-08 | 72 |
| 2023-06 | 71 |
| 2023-05 | 68 |
| 2023-03 | 65 |
| 2023-02 | 63 |
| 2022-12 | 61 |
| 2022-09 | 60 |
| 2022-06 | 70 |
| 2022-05 | 68 |
| 2022-04 | 66 |
| 2022-02 | 60 |
| 2022-01 | 66 |
| 2021-11 | 59 |
| 2021-10 | 60 |
| 2021-08 | 53 |
| 2021-05 | 58 |
| 2021-03 | 48 |
| 2021-01 | 47 |
| 2020-12 | 52 |
| 2020-10 | 53 |
| 2020-08 | 52 |
| 2020-06 | 55 |
| 2020-05 | 59 |
| 2020-03 | 61 |
| 2020-02 | 62 |
| 2019-12 | 60 |
| 2019-09 | 57 |
| 2019-08 | 58 |
| 2019-06 | 60 |
| 2019-05 | 58 |
| 2019-03 | 58 |
| 2019-01 | 62 |