Rankings/College Station-Bryan, TX

College Station-Bryan, TX

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 17780Compare

Risk Rank: #2 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +24

76score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

College Station's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 2nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

College Station experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +10% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-4.5% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp97

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap96

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp95

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +10% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+21.0%p71

Days on Market YoY

+9.7%p67

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Compressed↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-4.5%p12

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.7%p91

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+74.7%p95

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

13.45p96

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.40p97

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.5%p13

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$5Kp61

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+74.7%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Building is elevated but demand is cooling. Early warning of supply-demand imbalance — if liquidity continues to soften, this pipeline could become a problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 40.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

College Station's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Brazos County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Burleson County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.4Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

College Station, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Brazos County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Burleson County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Brazos CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	87.1%	0	100	100
Burleson CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	6.8%	100	50	0
Robertson County	38	Below Average	6.2%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	72	72	91	97	20	61
2025-12	Exp	59	40	67	96	3	61
2025-10	Rec	54	5	91	94	6	43
2025-08	Rec	52	4	91	94	1	43
2025-05	Rec	69	99	91	98	2	43
2025-03	Ress	57	26	91	95	5	43
2025-02	Hyp	56	20	91	95	7	43
2024-12	Hyp	56	15	91	95	7	43
2024-09	Hyp	58	29	91	96	10	43
2024-06	Hyp	58	30	91	96	9	43
2024-05	Ress	57	26	91	96	2	43
2024-03	Ress	63	51	91	96	16	43
2024-01	Hyp	63	52	91	96	14	43
2023-11	Ress	67	74	91	98	13	43
2023-09	Ress	62	57	91	97	5	43
2023-08	Hyp	60	40	91	97	8	43
2023-06	Hyp	63	60	91	98	4	43
2023-03	Hyp	66	79	91	97	7	43
2023-01	Ress	66	72	91	97	13	43
2022-11	Ress	60	44	91	87	9	43
2022-09	Hyp	65	77	91	90	4	43
2022-08	Ress	64	72	91	90	3	43
2022-06	Ress	58	37	91	86	8	43
2022-05	Exp	59	47	91	86	3	43
2022-03	Exp	61	58	91	86	7	43
2022-01	Rec	64	62	91	86	20	43
2021-11	Rec	61	41	91	97	4	49
2021-10	Exp	59	34	91	97	3	49
2021-08	Exp	64	53	91	97	12	49
2021-06	Rec	58	18	91	97	10	49
2021-04	Rec	60	18	91	97	25	49
2021-01	Rec	57	4	91	98	20	49
2020-10	Rec	60	16	91	87	32	52
2020-07	Rec	57	10	91	88	18	52
2020-04	Rec	57	6	91	88	24	52
2020-01	Rec	66	78	91	90	3	52
2019-12	Exp	60	34	91	89	8	58
2019-10	Exp	55	5	91	89	5	58
2019-09	Hyp	58	14	91	90	14	58
2019-08	Exp	58	15	91	90	13	58
2019-07	Rec	60	17	91	90	21	58
2019-05	Rec	62	38	91	92	14	58
2019-04	Hyp	63	45	91	92	12	58
2019-02	Hyp	55	6	91	88	5	58
2019-01	Rec	59	8	91	88	26	58

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023