Rankings/College Station-Bryan, TX

College Station-Bryan, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17780Compare

Risk Rank: #137 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

College Station experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

College Station's housing market shows average risk, ranking 137th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p94 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p89 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p67 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking -11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+12.3%p62

Days on Market YoY

-11.1%p27

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+6.2%p99

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum5

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth67

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita89

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability94

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment3

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration43

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-1.8%	p5
Permit Growth	+7.5%	p67
Permits/1K Pop	8.86	p89
Affordability	0.36	p94
Employment	+2.2%	p3
Net AGI Migration	+$27K	p43

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+7.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+12.3%

Days on Market YoY-11.1%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 6 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

College Station's counties diverge significantly — Brazos County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Burleson County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High26.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

College Station, TX shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Brazos County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Burleson County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Brazos CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	100	50	100
Robertson County	50	Average	33.3%	0	100	50
Burleson CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	50	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	53	4	91	94	4	43
2025-10	Rec	54	5	91	94	6	43
2025-08	Rec	52	4	91	94	1	43
2025-05	Rec	69	99	91	98	2	43
2025-03	Ress	57	26	91	95	5	43
2025-02	Hyp	56	20	91	95	7	43
2024-12	Hyp	56	15	91	95	7	43
2024-09	Hyp	58	29	91	96	10	43
2024-06	Hyp	58	30	91	96	9	43
2024-05	Ress	57	26	91	96	2	43
2024-03	Ress	63	51	91	96	16	43
2024-01	Hyp	63	52	91	96	14	43
2023-11	Ress	67	74	91	98	13	43
2023-09	Ress	62	57	91	97	5	43
2023-08	Hyp	60	40	91	97	8	43
2023-06	Hyp	63	60	91	98	4	43
2023-03	Hyp	66	79	91	97	7	43
2023-01	Ress	66	72	91	97	13	43
2022-11	Ress	60	44	91	87	9	43
2022-09	Hyp	65	77	91	90	4	43
2022-08	Ress	64	72	91	90	3	43
2022-06	Ress	58	37	91	86	8	43
2022-05	Exp	59	47	91	86	3	43
2022-03	Exp	61	58	91	86	7	43
2022-01	Rec	64	62	91	86	20	43
2021-11	Rec	61	41	91	97	4	49
2021-10	Exp	59	34	91	97	3	49
2021-08	Exp	64	53	91	97	12	49
2021-06	Rec	58	18	91	97	10	49
2021-04	Rec	60	18	91	97	25	49
2021-01	Rec	57	4	91	98	20	49
2020-10	Rec	60	16	91	87	32	52
2020-07	Rec	57	10	91	88	18	52
2020-04	Rec	57	6	91	88	24	52
2020-01	Rec	66	78	91	90	3	52
2019-12	Exp	60	34	91	89	8	58
2019-10	Exp	55	5	91	89	5	58
2019-09	Hyp	58	14	91	90	14	58
2019-08	Exp	58	15	91	90	13	58
2019-07	Rec	60	17	91	90	21	58
2019-05	Rec	62	38	91	92	14	58
2019-04	Hyp	63	45	91	92	12	58
2019-02	Hyp	55	6	91	88	5	58
2019-01	Rec	59	8	91	88	26	58

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022