US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Cleveland, OH

Cleveland, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17410Compare
Risk Rank: #69 of 287Month: 2025-12
56score
Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Cleveland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 69th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession
1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp97
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Price Momentump88
12-month HPI change
Permit Growthp68
YoY permit change

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced
Rent vs. Price Growth
-0.8%p52
Months in status26
Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumHigh Risk
+5.3%p88

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated
+8.7%p68

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk
1.82p17

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk
0.21p8

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral
+0.1%p56

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk
-$369Kp97

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable
Bank Lending Standards
-5.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-76 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+191 bpsElevated
Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.92High
Completion-Permit Divergence
+1.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1
Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified
Largest SectorHealth Care 18.2%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

Cleveland's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Lorain County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Cuyahoga County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.1Limited data
6 of 6 counties scored

Cleveland, OH shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Lorain County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Cuyahoga County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)
CountyScore
Geauga County<5%
75
Lorain CountyRisk Driver
60
Medina County
55
Ashtabula County<5%
45
Lake County
35
Cuyahoga CountyStabilizer
30
Score History
First scoring month — history will build with each monthly refresh.
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2025-Q4
Permits2025-12
Income2024
Employment2025-12
Migration2022