US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Cleveland, OH

Cleveland, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17410Compare
Risk Rank: #138 of 274Month: 2026-05
50score
Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Cleveland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 138th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Cleveland has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession
1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp97
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Permit Growthp80
YoY permit change
Price Momentump49
12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced
Rent vs. Price Growth
+2.3%p89
Months in status1
Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumNeutral
+1.6%p49

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated
+22.1%p80

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk
1.99p18

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk
0.22p7

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral
+0.2%p47

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk
-$353Kp97

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable
Bank Lending Standards
-3.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-38 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+199 bpsElevated
Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.90Elevated
Completion-Permit Divergence
-5.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2
Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified
Largest SectorHealth Care 18.2%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

Cleveland's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Medina County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Lake County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.1Limited data
6 of 6 counties scored

Cleveland, OH shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Medina County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Lake County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)
CountyScore
Medina CountyRisk Driver
70
Cuyahoga County
65
Lorain County
50
Geauga County<5%
45
Ashtabula County<5%
40
Lake CountyStabilizer
30
Score History
MonthScore
2025-1256
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2026-Q1
Permits2026-05
Income2024
Employment2026-05
Migration2023