US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Cleveland, OH

Cleveland, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17410Compare
Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12
54score
Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Recovery
Expansion
Hypersupply
Recession
In Expansion for 1 month

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Cleveland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is not yet assessed and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration
p94 (highest risk decile)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Price Momentum
p84 (elevated risk)
12-month HPI change
Permit Growth
p69 (moderate)
YoY permit change

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced
Rent vs. Price Growth
-0.1%p63
Months in status26
Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.
Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum84

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth69

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita17

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability7

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment55

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration94

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

MetricValuePctile
Price Momentum+4.6%p84
Permit Growth+8.7%p69
Permits/1K Pop1.82p17
Affordability0.21p7
Employment+0.1%p55
Net AGI Migration-$369Kp94
National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable
Bank Lending Standards
-5.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-74 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+189 bpsElevated
Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.91High
Completion-Permit Divergence
-3.2 ppNormal
Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4
Internal Structure

Cleveland's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Geauga County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Lake County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.8
6 of 6 counties scored

Cleveland, OH shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Geauga County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Lake County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)
CountyScore
Geauga CountyRisk Driver
80
Ashtabula County
53
Lorain County
47
Medina County
47
Cuyahoga County
40
Lake CountyStabilizer
33
Score History
First scoring month — history will build with each monthly refresh.
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2025-Q3
Permits2025-12
Income2024
Employment2025-12
Migration2022