Rankings/Clarksville, TN-KY

Clarksville, TN-KY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17300Compare

Risk Rank: #85 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +10

55score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Clarksville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 85th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Clarksville experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump92

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capitap83

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp77

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+10.0%p59

Days on Market YoY

-1.9%p44

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.8%p25

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+3.8%p92

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-17.1%p23

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.74p83

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.32p77

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.6%p28

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$69Kp26

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-17.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 37.6%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	59	66	59	71	45	26
2025-10	Rec	58	79	37	74	49	27
2025-08	Hyp	58	71	37	74	54	27
2025-06	Hyp	44	42	37	69	6	27
2025-03	Ress	46	32	37	67	28	27
2025-01	Ress	44	26	37	67	21	27
2024-12	Hyp	41	26	37	69	3	27
2024-10	Hyp	40	21	37	69	2	27
2024-07	Hyp	43	37	37	72	3	27
2024-06	Ress	43	26	37	69	17	27
2024-04	Ress	47	53	37	69	14	27
2024-03	Hyp	48	58	37	71	11	27
2024-02	Exp	47	47	37	71	18	27
2023-12	Exp	52	39	37	76	47	27
2023-10	Rec	49	37	37	76	35	27
2023-08	Rec	47	43	37	76	18	27
2023-07	Hyp	48	51	37	76	13	27
2023-05	Hyp	45	24	37	71	26	27
2023-03	Ress	49	51	37	75	21	27
2023-01	Ress	51	66	37	75	18	27
2022-10	Hyp	55	83	37	74	25	27
2022-09	Ress	54	83	37	72	22	27
2022-07	Ress	55	85	37	72	28	27
2022-04	Hyp	60	94	37	74	42	27
2022-03	Rec	60	93	37	70	53	27
2022-01	Rec	60	87	37	70	58	27
2021-12	Exp	65	86	37	69	81	32
2021-10	Exp	64	86	37	69	74	32
2021-07	Exp	59	69	37	65	67	32
2021-05	Rec	52	66	37	62	31	32
2021-03	Rec	52	76	37	62	20	32
2020-12	Rec	48	60	37	68	8	35
2020-09	Rec	55	97	37	69	9	35
2020-06	Rec	53	91	37	65	8	35
2020-03	Rec	55	99	37	67	11	35
2020-01	Exp	55	99	37	67	8	35
2019-11	Exp	59	84	37	65	41	42
2019-08	Exp	49	43	37	64	25	42
2019-05	Rec	58	69	37	66	52	42
2019-03	Rec	46	20	37	60	35	42
2019-01	Rec	44	20	37	60	22	42

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023