Rankings/Clarksville, TN-KY

Clarksville, TN-KY

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 17300Compare

Risk Rank: #19 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +23

64score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Clarksville experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Clarksville's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 19th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by price momentum and permits per capita. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p88 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capita

p88 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p75 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking -1% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.8%p61

Days on Market YoY

-1.4%p45

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-5.7%p7

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum88

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth60

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita88

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability75

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment45

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration27

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.1%	p88
Permit Growth	+3.9%	p60
Permits/1K Pop	8.68	p88
Affordability	0.31	p75
Employment	+0.4%	p45
Net AGI Migration	+$87K	p27

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+3.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+11.8%

Days on Market YoY-1.4%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Clarksville's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Trigg County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Montgomery County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.8Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Clarksville, TN-KY shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Trigg County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Montgomery County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Trigg CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	25.0%	33	100	67
Stewart County	56	Elevated	25.0%	100	67	0
Christian County	44	Below Average	25.0%	67	33	33
Montgomery CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	25.0%	0	0	100

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	58	85	37	74	44	27
2025-09	Rec	55	77	37	74	30	27
2025-08	Hyp	58	71	37	74	54	27
2025-06	Hyp	44	42	37	69	6	27
2025-03	Ress	46	32	37	67	28	27
2025-01	Ress	44	26	37	67	21	27
2024-12	Hyp	41	26	37	69	3	27
2024-10	Hyp	40	21	37	69	2	27
2024-07	Hyp	43	37	37	72	3	27
2024-06	Ress	43	26	37	69	17	27
2024-04	Ress	47	53	37	69	14	27
2024-03	Hyp	48	58	37	71	11	27
2024-02	Exp	47	47	37	71	18	27
2023-12	Exp	52	39	37	76	47	27
2023-10	Rec	49	37	37	76	35	27
2023-08	Rec	47	43	37	76	18	27
2023-07	Hyp	48	51	37	76	13	27
2023-05	Hyp	45	24	37	71	26	27
2023-03	Ress	49	51	37	75	21	27
2023-01	Ress	51	66	37	75	18	27
2022-10	Hyp	55	83	37	74	25	27
2022-09	Ress	54	83	37	72	22	27
2022-07	Ress	55	85	37	72	28	27
2022-04	Hyp	60	94	37	74	42	27
2022-03	Rec	60	93	37	70	53	27
2022-01	Rec	60	87	37	70	58	27
2021-12	Exp	65	86	37	69	81	32
2021-10	Exp	64	86	37	69	74	32
2021-07	Exp	59	69	37	65	67	32
2021-05	Rec	52	66	37	62	31	32
2021-03	Rec	52	76	37	62	20	32
2020-12	Rec	48	60	37	68	8	35
2020-09	Rec	55	97	37	69	9	35
2020-06	Rec	53	91	37	65	8	35
2020-03	Rec	55	99	37	67	11	35
2020-01	Exp	55	99	37	67	8	35
2019-11	Exp	59	84	37	65	41	42
2019-08	Exp	49	43	37	64	25	42
2019-05	Rec	58	69	37	66	52	42
2019-03	Rec	46	20	37	60	35	42
2019-01	Rec	44	20	37	60	22	42

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022