Rankings/Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17140Compare

Risk Rank: #54 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +5

59score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Cincinnati's housing market shows average risk, ranking 54th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Cincinnati experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +17% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp94

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp85

YoY permit change

Price Momentump63

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +17% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+17.1%p67

Days on Market YoY

+13.5%p73

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.3%p60

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.9%p63

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+29.0%p85

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.83p47

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p11

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p54

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$188Kp94

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+29.0%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant overbuilding into weak demand. This is the highest-risk metro combination — new supply is delivering into a market that is already struggling to absorb existing inventory.

Internal Structure

Cincinnati's 13 counties show moderate divergence — Clermont County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Boone County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.4

13 of 15 counties scored

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Clermont County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Boone County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Clermont CountyRisk Driver	94	High Risk	9.4%	92	100	83
Warren County	73	Elevated	11.1%	67	75	67
Hamilton County	58	Elevated	37.0%	50	92	92
Dearborn County<5%	56	Elevated	2.3%	58	83	42
Kenton County	56	Elevated	7.6%	42	50	75
Franklin County<5%	52	Average	1.0%	100	58	25
Campbell County<5%	50	Average	4.2%	75	8	100
Pendleton CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Bracken CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Butler County	48	Average	17.5%	83	17	58
Grant County<5%	40	Below Average	1.1%	8	67	17
Boone CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	6.2%	25	0	50
Brown County<5%	36	Below Average	1.9%	17	42	33
Gallatin County<5%	31	Below Average	0.4%	0	33	0
Ohio County<5%	18	Low Risk	0.3%	33	25	8

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	56	75	82	11	25	95
2025-12	Hyp	60	63	64	11	86	95
2025-09	Rec	57	66	66	11	67	91
2025-08	Hyp	54	65	66	11	54	91
2025-06	Hyp	52	71	66	11	37	91
2025-04	Ress	51	65	66	11	34	91
2025-02	Ress	57	72	66	11	63	91
2025-01	Hyp	62	74	66	11	88	91
2024-11	Hyp	56	65	66	11	66	91
2024-09	Ress	56	68	66	10	65	91
2024-07	Ress	60	77	66	10	74	91
2024-06	Hyp	62	80	66	11	82	91
2024-04	Rec	61	73	66	11	84	91
2024-03	Hyp	62	71	66	12	90	91
2024-01	Hyp	62	77	66	12	84	91
2023-11	Exp	60	85	66	11	71	91
2023-09	Exp	59	79	66	9	68	91
2023-08	Rec	58	78	66	9	66	91
2023-06	Rec	56	78	66	9	56	91
2023-04	Ress	54	69	66	9	50	91
2023-02	Hyp	51	58	66	10	40	91
2023-01	Exp	52	63	66	10	45	91
2022-11	Exp	52	54	66	9	51	91
2022-10	Rec	50	55	66	9	43	91
2022-08	Rec	51	55	66	10	47	91
2022-07	Exp	51	54	66	10	48	91
2022-05	Exp	52	55	66	10	52	91
2022-02	Exp	50	41	66	9	56	91
2021-12	Rec	48	30	66	7	57	92
2021-10	Rec	46	32	66	7	41	92
2021-09	Exp	48	34	66	6	53	92
2021-07	Exp	48	34	66	6	54	92
2021-04	Rec	44	35	66	6	30	92
2021-02	Rec	49	49	66	6	44	92
2020-12	Exp	52	59	66	7	52	93
2020-10	Exp	54	64	66	7	56	93
2020-09	Rec	55	74	66	6	53	93
2020-07	Rec	55	72	66	6	55	93
2020-06	Exp	54	63	66	5	56	93
2020-04	Exp	56	67	66	5	69	93
2020-03	Rec	55	70	66	5	56	93
2020-01	Rec	52	65	66	5	46	93
2019-10	Rec	53	66	66	5	53	92
2019-07	Rec	57	72	66	5	67	92
2019-04	Exp	52	54	66	5	57	92
2019-02	Exp	53	56	66	5	61	92
2019-01	Exp	53	58	66	5	61	92

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023