Rankings/Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17140Compare

Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— 0

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Cincinnati experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 3 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Cincinnati's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p91 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p86 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p64 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+20.7%p70

Days on Market YoY

+1.9%p51

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.5%p58

Months in status25

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum57

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth64

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita41

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability12

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.9%	p57
Permit Growth	+6.1%	p64
Permits/1K Pop	3.26	p41
Affordability	0.22	p12
Employment	-0.5%	p86
Net AGI Migration	-$251K	p91

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+6.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+20.7%

Days on Market YoY+1.9%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Cincinnati's 13 counties show moderate divergence — Kenton County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Grant County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.5

13 of 15 counties scored

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Kenton County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Grant County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Kenton CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	7.7%	42	100	83
Warren County	72	Elevated	7.7%	67	83	67
Brown County	61	Elevated	7.7%	92	50	42
Butler County	55	Average	7.7%	33	75	58
Campbell County	53	Average	7.7%	58	0	100
Bracken CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Gallatin County	50	Average	7.7%	83	67	0
Boone County	50	Average	7.7%	8	92	50
Ohio County	50	Average	7.7%	100	42	8
Pendleton CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Dearborn County	47	Average	7.7%	75	33	33
Clermont County	47	Average	7.7%	50	17	75
Hamilton County	42	Below Average	7.7%	25	8	92
Franklin County	28	Below Average	7.7%	0	58	25
Grant CountyStabilizer	20	Low Risk	7.7%	17	25	17

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	58	60	66	11	81	91
2025-09	Rec	57	66	66	11	67	91
2025-08	Hyp	54	65	66	11	54	91
2025-06	Hyp	52	71	66	11	37	91
2025-04	Ress	51	65	66	11	34	91
2025-02	Ress	57	72	66	11	63	91
2025-01	Hyp	62	74	66	11	88	91
2024-11	Hyp	56	65	66	11	66	91
2024-09	Ress	56	68	66	10	65	91
2024-07	Ress	60	77	66	10	74	91
2024-06	Hyp	62	80	66	11	82	91
2024-04	Rec	61	73	66	11	84	91
2024-03	Hyp	62	71	66	12	90	91
2024-01	Hyp	62	77	66	12	84	91
2023-11	Exp	60	85	66	11	71	91
2023-09	Exp	59	79	66	9	68	91
2023-08	Rec	58	78	66	9	66	91
2023-06	Rec	56	78	66	9	56	91
2023-04	Ress	54	69	66	9	50	91
2023-02	Hyp	51	58	66	10	40	91
2023-01	Exp	52	63	66	10	45	91
2022-11	Exp	52	54	66	9	51	91
2022-10	Rec	50	55	66	9	43	91
2022-08	Rec	51	55	66	10	47	91
2022-07	Exp	51	54	66	10	48	91
2022-05	Exp	52	55	66	10	52	91
2022-02	Exp	50	41	66	9	56	91
2021-12	Rec	48	30	66	7	57	92
2021-10	Rec	46	32	66	7	41	92
2021-09	Exp	48	34	66	6	53	92
2021-07	Exp	48	34	66	6	54	92
2021-04	Rec	44	35	66	6	30	92
2021-02	Rec	49	49	66	6	44	92
2020-12	Exp	52	59	66	7	52	93
2020-10	Exp	54	64	66	7	56	93
2020-09	Rec	55	74	66	6	53	93
2020-07	Rec	55	72	66	6	55	93
2020-06	Exp	54	63	66	5	56	93
2020-04	Exp	56	67	66	5	69	93
2020-03	Rec	55	70	66	5	56	93
2020-01	Rec	52	65	66	5	46	93
2019-10	Rec	53	66	66	5	53	92
2019-07	Rec	57	72	66	5	67	92
2019-04	Exp	52	54	66	5	57	92
2019-02	Exp	53	56	66	5	61	92
2019-01	Exp	53	58	66	5	61	92

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022