Rankings/Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17140Compare

Risk Rank: #39 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +2

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Cincinnati's housing market shows average risk, ranking 39th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Cincinnati experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp95

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp64

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+20.7%p70

Days on Market YoY

+1.9%p51

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.2%p46

Months in status25

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.6%p63

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+6.1%p64

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

3.26p40

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.22p11

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.5%p86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$188Kp95

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+6.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Internal Structure

Cincinnati's 13 counties show moderate divergence — Warren County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Hamilton County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.6

13 of 15 counties scored

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Warren County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Hamilton County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Warren CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	11.1%	67	83	67
Kenton County	71	Elevated	7.6%	42	100	83
Boone County	62	Elevated	6.2%	8	92	50
Gallatin County<5%	60	Elevated	0.4%	83	67	0
Brown County<5%	58	Elevated	1.9%	92	50	42
Clermont County	54	Average	9.4%	50	17	75
Butler County	52	Average	17.5%	33	75	58
Pendleton CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Bracken CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Campbell County<5%	48	Average	4.2%	58	0	100
Dearborn County<5%	40	Below Average	2.3%	75	33	33
Ohio County<5%	40	Below Average	0.3%	100	42	8
Grant County<5%	32	Below Average	1.1%	17	25	17
Hamilton CountyStabilizer	31	Below Average	37.0%	25	8	92
Franklin County<5%	27	Below Average	1.0%	0	58	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	58	60	66	11	81	91
2025-09	Rec	57	66	66	11	67	91
2025-08	Hyp	54	65	66	11	54	91
2025-06	Hyp	52	71	66	11	37	91
2025-04	Ress	51	65	66	11	34	91
2025-02	Ress	57	72	66	11	63	91
2025-01	Hyp	62	74	66	11	88	91
2024-11	Hyp	56	65	66	11	66	91
2024-09	Ress	56	68	66	10	65	91
2024-07	Ress	60	77	66	10	74	91
2024-06	Hyp	62	80	66	11	82	91
2024-04	Rec	61	73	66	11	84	91
2024-03	Hyp	62	71	66	12	90	91
2024-01	Hyp	62	77	66	12	84	91
2023-11	Exp	60	85	66	11	71	91
2023-09	Exp	59	79	66	9	68	91
2023-08	Rec	58	78	66	9	66	91
2023-06	Rec	56	78	66	9	56	91
2023-04	Ress	54	69	66	9	50	91
2023-02	Hyp	51	58	66	10	40	91
2023-01	Exp	52	63	66	10	45	91
2022-11	Exp	52	54	66	9	51	91
2022-10	Rec	50	55	66	9	43	91
2022-08	Rec	51	55	66	10	47	91
2022-07	Exp	51	54	66	10	48	91
2022-05	Exp	52	55	66	10	52	91
2022-02	Exp	50	41	66	9	56	91
2021-12	Rec	48	30	66	7	57	92
2021-10	Rec	46	32	66	7	41	92
2021-09	Exp	48	34	66	6	53	92
2021-07	Exp	48	34	66	6	54	92
2021-04	Rec	44	35	66	6	30	92
2021-02	Rec	49	49	66	6	44	92
2020-12	Exp	52	59	66	7	52	93
2020-10	Exp	54	64	66	7	56	93
2020-09	Rec	55	74	66	6	53	93
2020-07	Rec	55	72	66	6	55	93
2020-06	Exp	54	63	66	5	56	93
2020-04	Exp	56	67	66	5	69	93
2020-03	Rec	55	70	66	5	56	93
2020-01	Rec	52	65	66	5	46	93
2019-10	Rec	53	66	66	5	53	92
2019-07	Rec	57	72	66	5	67	92
2019-04	Exp	52	54	66	5	57	92
2019-02	Exp	53	56	66	5	61	92
2019-01	Exp	53	58	66	5	61	92

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023