Chico, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 17020Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +5

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Chico's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Chico experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +14% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permit growth, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp84

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp61

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap57

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +14% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+11.1%p60

Days on Market YoY

+13.9%p74

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.2%p93

Months in status18

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.6%p13

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+5.4%p61

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.79p57

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.33p84

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p30

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$24Kp42

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 25%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	42	10	48	84	20	38
2025-09	Hyp	42	9	48	84	21	38
2025-07	Rec	39	7	48	84	4	38
2025-06	Hyp	49	56	48	89	9	38
2025-04	Ress	52	34	48	89	48	38
2025-02	Ress	44	26	48	86	14	38
2025-01	Hyp	46	35	48	86	16	38
2024-11	Hyp	48	6	48	85	57	38
2024-08	Ress	52	23	48	86	62	38
2024-06	Ress	61	56	48	88	83	38
2024-04	Hyp	54	32	48	88	66	38
2024-03	Exp	54	14	48	87	80	38
2024-02	Rec	56	16	48	87	90	38
2023-12	Rec	58	27	48	87	96	38
2023-11	Exp	57	21	48	87	93	38
2023-09	Exp	52	3	48	85	83	38
2023-08	Rec	54	6	48	85	91	38
2023-06	Rec	56	11	48	88	95	38
2023-03	Hyp	55	2	48	87	99	38
2023-01	Ress	52	1	48	87	86	38
2022-11	Ress	51	1	48	84	84	38
2022-10	Hyp	50	2	48	84	74	38
2022-08	Ress	53	0	48	82	99	38
2022-06	Ress	53	7	48	89	85	38
2022-04	Hyp	48	4	48	89	55	38
2022-03	Exp	45	12	48	90	27	38
2022-02	Rec	48	13	48	90	44	38
2021-12	Rec	49	16	48	82	34	64
2021-10	Exp	50	19	48	82	39	64
2021-08	Exp	49	20	48	85	28	64
2021-06	Rec	59	31	48	87	72	64
2021-04	Rec	55	29	48	87	49	64
2021-03	Exp	64	38	48	90	92	64
2021-01	Exp	63	42	48	90	84	64
2020-10	Exp	62	19	48	88	95	72
2020-09	Rec	62	14	48	89	95	72
2020-07	Rec	57	9	48	89	70	72
2020-04	Exp	60	14	48	89	81	72
2020-02	Exp	62	14	48	89	93	72
2019-12	Ress	78	89	48	90	95	95
2019-11	Rec	80	99	48	90	96	95
2019-09	Rec	80	100	48	91	99	95
2019-08	Exp	80	100	48	91	99	95
2019-06	Exp	81	100	48	92	99	95
2019-04	Rec	81	100	48	92	99	95
2019-02	Rec	78	100	48	92	85	95
2019-01	Rec	80	99	48	92	99	95

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023