Rankings/Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 16980Compare

Risk Rank: #201 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -12

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Chicago's housing market shows average risk, ranking 201st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Chicago has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump80

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp41

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-1.1%p48

Days on Market YoY

+5.9%p60

Months in status84

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p74

Months in status41

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.7%p80

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-6.9%p41

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.72p15

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.17p1

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.6%p36

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$7Mp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-6.9%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorRetail Trade 25.2%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Chicago's 13 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low6.0

13 of 13 counties scored

Chicago, IL-IN shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. DuPage County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Lake County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
McHenry County<5%	75	Elevated	3.3%	92	67	50
DuPage CountyRisk Driver	73	Elevated	9.9%	100	83	92
Kane County	64	Elevated	5.5%	67	33	75
Will County	62	Elevated	7.5%	58	92	42
Cook County	56	Elevated	55.3%	50	75	100
Lake County	56	Elevated	5.3%	8	58	83
Lake CountyStabilizer	50	Average	7.6%	75	50	67
Kendall County<5%	42	Below Average	1.5%	42	0	25
Grundy County<5%	40	Below Average	0.6%	17	100	17
Porter County<5%	36	Below Average	1.9%	0	17	58
Jasper County<5%	35	Below Average	0.4%	83	8	8
DeKalb County<5%	35	Below Average	1.1%	33	25	33
Newton County<5%	25	Low Risk	0.1%	25	42	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	54	81	74	0	53	99
2025-09	Rec	53	82	74	0	43	99
2025-06	Exp	56	85	74	1	58	99
2025-04	Exp	58	84	74	1	70	99
2025-01	Rec	56	73	74	1	68	99
2024-11	Rec	57	72	74	1	76	99
2024-10	Exp	55	72	74	1	65	99
2024-08	Exp	57	71	74	1	80	99
2024-05	Exp	57	69	74	1	80	99
2024-02	Exp	58	72	74	1	81	99
2023-11	Exp	55	73	74	0	67	99
2023-08	Rec	55	70	74	0	69	99
2023-06	Rec	50	57	74	0	54	99
2023-03	Rec	46	34	74	0	53	99
2023-02	Exp	46	35	74	0	48	99
2022-12	Exp	47	33	74	1	58	99
2022-11	Rec	45	33	74	1	45	99
2022-09	Rec	43	31	74	1	36	99
2022-08	Exp	42	30	74	1	30	99
2022-06	Exp	44	30	74	1	39	99
2022-03	Exp	41	19	74	1	33	99
2022-02	Rec	42	19	74	1	42	99
2021-12	Rec	40	18	74	1	27	99
2021-09	Exp	44	15	74	1	54	99
2021-07	Exp	44	14	74	1	58	99
2021-04	Exp	48	18	74	1	77	99
2021-03	Rec	48	14	74	1	79	99
2021-01	Rec	48	13	74	1	81	99
2020-12	Exp	48	14	74	0	81	99
2020-10	Exp	48	13	74	0	82	99
2020-08	Rec	47	8	74	0	82	99
2020-06	Rec	47	9	74	1	82	99
2020-03	Rec	47	16	74	1	72	99
2020-02	Exp	45	18	74	1	59	99
2019-12	Exp	47	21	74	0	70	100
2019-09	Rec	48	25	74	0	73	100
2019-07	Rec	48	23	74	0	70	100
2019-06	Exp	45	20	74	1	58	100
2019-04	Exp	47	21	74	1	66	100
2019-01	Exp	47	16	74	1	73	100

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023