Rankings/Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 16980Compare

Risk Rank: #194 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -12

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Chicago has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Chicago's housing market shows average risk, ranking 194th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p99 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p80 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p41 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-1.1%p48

Days on Market YoY

+5.9%p60

Months in status84

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.1%p80

Months in status41

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum80

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth41

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita15

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability1

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment36

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.1%	p80
Permit Growth	-6.9%	p41
Permits/1K Pop	1.72	p15
Affordability	0.17	p1
Employment	+0.6%	p36
Net AGI Migration	-$7M	p99

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-6.9%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY-1.1%

Days on Market YoY+5.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 84 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Chicago's counties diverge significantly — DuPage County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Kendall County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High21.8

13 of 13 counties scored

Chicago, IL-IN shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. DuPage County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Kendall County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
DuPage CountyRisk Driver	92	High Risk	7.7%	100	83	92
Cook County	75	Elevated	7.7%	50	75	100
McHenry County	70	Elevated	7.7%	92	67	50
Lake County	64	Elevated	7.7%	75	50	67
Will County	64	Elevated	7.7%	58	92	42
Kane County	58	Elevated	7.7%	67	33	75
Lake County	50	Average	7.7%	8	58	83
Grundy County	45	Below Average	7.7%	17	100	17
Jasper County	33	Below Average	7.7%	83	8	8
DeKalb County	30	Below Average	7.7%	33	25	33
Porter County	25	Low Risk	7.7%	0	17	58
Kendall CountyStabilizer	22	Low Risk	7.7%	42	0	25
Newton County	22	Low Risk	7.7%	25	42	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	54	81	74	0	53	99
2025-09	Rec	53	82	74	0	43	99
2025-06	Exp	56	85	74	1	58	99
2025-04	Exp	58	84	74	1	70	99
2025-01	Rec	56	73	74	1	68	99
2024-11	Rec	57	72	74	1	76	99
2024-10	Exp	55	72	74	1	65	99
2024-08	Exp	57	71	74	1	80	99
2024-05	Exp	57	69	74	1	80	99
2024-02	Exp	58	72	74	1	81	99
2023-11	Exp	55	73	74	0	67	99
2023-08	Rec	55	70	74	0	69	99
2023-06	Rec	50	57	74	0	54	99
2023-03	Rec	46	34	74	0	53	99
2023-02	Exp	46	35	74	0	48	99
2022-12	Exp	47	33	74	1	58	99
2022-11	Rec	45	33	74	1	45	99
2022-09	Rec	43	31	74	1	36	99
2022-08	Exp	42	30	74	1	30	99
2022-06	Exp	44	30	74	1	39	99
2022-03	Exp	41	19	74	1	33	99
2022-02	Rec	42	19	74	1	42	99
2021-12	Rec	40	18	74	1	27	99
2021-09	Exp	44	15	74	1	54	99
2021-07	Exp	44	14	74	1	58	99
2021-04	Exp	48	18	74	1	77	99
2021-03	Rec	48	14	74	1	79	99
2021-01	Rec	48	13	74	1	81	99
2020-12	Exp	48	14	74	0	81	99
2020-10	Exp	48	13	74	0	82	99
2020-08	Rec	47	8	74	0	82	99
2020-06	Rec	47	9	74	1	82	99
2020-03	Rec	47	16	74	1	72	99
2020-02	Exp	45	18	74	1	59	99
2019-12	Exp	47	21	74	0	70	100
2019-09	Rec	48	25	74	0	73	100
2019-07	Rec	48	23	74	0	70	100
2019-06	Exp	45	20	74	1	58	100
2019-04	Exp	47	21	74	1	66	100
2019-01	Exp	47	16	74	1	73	100

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022