Rankings/Chattanooga, TN-GA

Chattanooga, TN-GA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 16860Compare

Risk Rank: #217 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -13

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Chattanooga experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Chattanooga's housing market shows average risk, ranking 217th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p82 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p63 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentum

p39 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+23% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+22.6%p72

Days on Market YoY

+7.3%p62

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.1%p64

Months in status18

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum39

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth24

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita63

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability82

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment33

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration19

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.9%	p39
Permit Growth	-15.7%	p24
Permits/1K Pop	5.28	p63
Affordability	0.32	p82
Employment	+0.7%	p33
Net AGI Migration	+$187K	p19

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-15.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+22.6%

Days on Market YoY+7.3%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Chattanooga's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Hamilton County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Catoosa County anchors the lower end.

Moderate10.8

6 of 6 counties scored

Chattanooga, TN-GA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Hamilton County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Catoosa County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Hamilton CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	16.7%	80	20	100
Sequatchie County	60	Elevated	16.7%	60	100	20
Dade County	53	Average	16.7%	100	60	0
Catoosa CountyStabilizer	40	Below Average	16.7%	0	80	40
Walker County	40	Below Average	16.7%	40	0	80
Marion County	40	Below Average	16.7%	20	40	60

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	58	42	73	82	60	20
2025-10	Rec	59	43	73	82	66	20
2025-08	Hyp	59	40	73	82	68	20
2025-06	Hyp	60	47	73	82	68	20
2025-05	Ress	60	40	73	82	76	20
2025-03	Ress	55	28	73	82	60	20
2025-01	Hyp	58	38	73	82	64	20
2024-11	Hyp	51	34	73	82	29	20
2024-10	Ress	48	34	73	82	13	20
2024-08	Ress	52	58	73	82	11	20
2024-06	Hyp	57	89	73	83	6	20
2024-04	Ress	56	83	73	83	5	20
2024-02	Ress	56	77	73	82	13	20
2024-01	Hyp	54	67	73	82	15	20
2023-11	Exp	57	85	73	86	7	20
2023-09	Rec	55	79	73	84	4	20
2023-07	Rec	53	71	73	84	1	20
2023-06	Hyp	54	76	73	83	1	20
2023-04	Hyp	54	81	73	83	0	20
2023-02	Ress	56	91	73	84	1	20
2022-12	Ress	50	66	73	72	1	20
2022-09	Hyp	54	82	73	73	6	20
2022-08	Ress	54	82	73	73	10	20
2022-06	Ress	55	75	73	71	23	20
2022-05	Hyp	58	75	73	71	38	20
2022-04	Exp	58	76	73	71	40	20
2022-02	Exp	64	82	73	71	68	20
2021-12	Rec	68	77	74	73	93	23
2021-10	Rec	66	78	74	73	78	23
2021-09	Exp	63	77	74	72	64	23
2021-07	Exp	64	75	74	72	68	23
2021-05	Rec	64	78	74	71	71	23
2021-03	Rec	57	76	74	67	31	23
2021-02	Exp	56	78	74	67	28	23
2020-12	Exp	58	81	74	77	20	28
2020-11	Rec	59	81	74	77	24	28
2020-09	Rec	62	89	74	78	34	28
2020-06	Exp	59	78	74	77	30	28
2020-04	Exp	62	80	74	77	41	28
2020-03	Rec	62	73	74	75	50	28
2020-01	Rec	63	77	74	75	54	28
2019-10	Rec	59	64	74	75	43	27
2019-07	Rec	61	83	74	75	38	27
2019-05	Exp	58	72	74	74	34	27
2019-03	Exp	56	68	74	73	28	27
2019-02	Hyp	56	73	74	73	20	27
2019-01	Exp	56	77	74	73	18	27

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022