Rankings/Charlottesville, VA

Charlottesville, VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 16820Compare

Risk Rank: #97 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +8

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Charlottesville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 97th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Charlottesville experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +31% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap70

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp64

YoY permit change

Migrationp63

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +31% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+31.3%p80

Days on Market YoY

+14.1%p74

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.5%p57

Months in status34

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.5%p59

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+6.2%p64

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.11p70

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.25p28

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.6%p36

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$8Kp63

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+6.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 45.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Charlottesville's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Albemarle County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Greene County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9

5 of 5 counties scored

Charlottesville, VA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Albemarle County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Greene County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Albemarle CountyRisk Driver	69	Elevated	51.2%	75	50	75
Fluvanna County	62	Elevated	12.5%	50	100	50
Charlottesville city	56	Elevated	20.3%	100	25	100
Nelson County	38	Below Average	6.6%	25	75	25
Greene CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	9.4%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	40	38	40	26	14	59
2025-09	Hyp	45	45	40	26	33	59
2025-08	Rec	43	45	40	26	21	59
2025-07	Hyp	43	43	40	26	25	59
2025-06	Ress	50	69	40	30	36	59
2025-04	Ress	50	59	40	30	45	59
2025-03	Hyp	51	79	40	31	34	59
2025-02	Rec	51	85	40	31	26	59
2024-12	Exp	45	66	40	27	13	59
2024-10	Exp	44	60	40	27	14	59
2024-09	Hyp	46	67	40	27	15	59
2024-08	Exp	43	65	40	27	1	59
2024-06	Exp	44	73	40	29	1	59
2024-03	Exp	38	40	40	25	1	59
2024-02	Rec	37	28	40	25	5	59
2023-12	Rec	40	36	40	24	14	59
2023-11	Exp	40	45	40	24	7	59
2023-09	Exp	42	61	40	24	6	59
2023-08	Rec	48	70	40	24	32	59
2023-06	Rec	51	69	40	24	47	59
2023-05	Hyp	47	63	40	24	32	59
2023-03	Hyp	51	86	40	27	29	59
2023-02	Ress	51	88	40	27	28	59
2022-12	Ress	50	79	40	33	26	59
2022-10	Hyp	56	78	40	33	62	59
2022-09	Rec	52	65	40	30	56	59
2022-08	Exp	52	57	40	30	63	59
2022-06	Exp	50	62	40	33	38	59
2022-03	Exp	42	23	40	27	40	59
2022-01	Rec	45	24	40	27	53	59
2021-11	Rec	36	14	40	26	35	34
2021-10	Exp	36	14	40	26	38	34
2021-08	Exp	33	15	40	29	15	34
2021-05	Rec	38	15	40	31	47	34
2021-03	Rec	43	12	40	32	78	34
2021-02	Exp	44	14	40	32	81	34
2020-12	Exp	41	9	40	27	78	28
2020-11	Rec	42	7	40	27	84	28
2020-09	Rec	44	8	40	29	92	28
2020-06	Rec	48	38	40	31	88	28
2020-03	Rec	42	31	40	32	56	28
2019-12	Rec	54	89	40	35	3	95
2019-09	Exp	48	52	40	33	4	95
2019-07	Exp	48	40	40	33	13	95
2019-06	Rec	48	31	40	35	25	95
2019-04	Rec	42	7	40	35	10	95
2019-03	Exp	43	2	40	31	24	95
2019-01	Exp	46	5	40	31	41	95

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023