Rankings/Charlottesville, VA

Charlottesville, VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 16820Compare

Risk Rank: #190 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -5

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Charlottesville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 190th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Charlottesville experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up -6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump86

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capitap65

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp63

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up -6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+27.5%p77

Days on Market YoY

-6.0%p35

Months in status1

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.0%p48

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+2.9%p86

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-15.1%p23

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.56p65

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p29

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+2.3%p5

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$8Kp63

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-15.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 45.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Charlottesville's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Charlottesville city carries the most risk (High Risk) while Fluvanna County anchors the lower end.

Moderate17.8

5 of 5 counties scored

Charlottesville, VA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Charlottesville city contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Fluvanna County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Charlottesville cityRisk Driver	81	High Risk	20.3%	25	100	100
Greene County	56	Elevated	9.4%	75	50	25
Nelson County	44	Below Average	6.6%	100	25	50
Albemarle County	38	Below Average	51.2%	50	0	75
Fluvanna CountyStabilizer	31	Below Average	12.5%	0	75	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Hyp	49	63	51	29	16	63
2025-12	Ress	53	59	64	28	36	63
2025-10	Ress	43	47	40	26	23	59
2025-09	Hyp	45	45	40	26	33	59
2025-08	Rec	43	45	40	26	21	59
2025-07	Hyp	43	43	40	26	25	59
2025-06	Ress	50	69	40	30	36	59
2025-04	Ress	50	59	40	30	45	59
2025-03	Hyp	51	79	40	31	34	59
2025-02	Rec	51	85	40	31	26	59
2024-12	Exp	45	66	40	27	13	59
2024-10	Exp	44	60	40	27	14	59
2024-09	Hyp	46	67	40	27	15	59
2024-08	Exp	43	65	40	27	1	59
2024-06	Exp	44	73	40	29	1	59
2024-03	Exp	38	40	40	25	1	59
2024-02	Rec	37	28	40	25	5	59
2023-12	Rec	40	36	40	24	14	59
2023-11	Exp	40	45	40	24	7	59
2023-09	Exp	42	61	40	24	6	59
2023-08	Rec	48	70	40	24	32	59
2023-06	Rec	51	69	40	24	47	59
2023-05	Hyp	47	63	40	24	32	59
2023-03	Hyp	51	86	40	27	29	59
2023-02	Ress	51	88	40	27	28	59
2022-12	Ress	50	79	40	33	26	59
2022-10	Hyp	56	78	40	33	62	59
2022-09	Rec	52	65	40	30	56	59
2022-08	Exp	52	57	40	30	63	59
2022-06	Exp	50	62	40	33	38	59
2022-03	Exp	42	23	40	27	40	59
2022-01	Rec	45	24	40	27	53	59
2021-11	Rec	36	14	40	26	35	34
2021-10	Exp	36	14	40	26	38	34
2021-08	Exp	33	15	40	29	15	34
2021-05	Rec	38	15	40	31	47	34
2021-03	Rec	43	12	40	32	78	34
2021-02	Exp	44	14	40	32	81	34
2020-12	Exp	41	9	40	27	78	28
2020-11	Rec	42	7	40	27	84	28
2020-09	Rec	44	8	40	29	92	28
2020-06	Rec	48	38	40	31	88	28
2020-03	Rec	42	31	40	32	56	28
2019-12	Rec	54	89	40	35	3	95
2019-09	Exp	48	52	40	33	4	95
2019-07	Exp	48	40	40	33	13	95
2019-06	Rec	48	31	40	35	25	95
2019-04	Rec	42	7	40	35	10	95
2019-03	Exp	43	2	40	31	24	95
2019-01	Exp	46	5	40	31	41	95

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023