Rankings/Charlottesville, VA

Charlottesville, VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 16820Compare

Risk Rank: #168 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +2

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Charlottesville experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 3 months·Previously: Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Charlottesville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 168th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and permit growth. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p71 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p64 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Migration

p59 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +31% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+31.3%p80

Days on Market YoY

+14.1%p74

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.9%p86

Months in status34

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum28

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth64

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita71

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability27

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment35

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration59

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.0%	p28
Permit Growth	+6.2%	p64
Permits/1K Pop	6.11	p71
Affordability	0.25	p27
Employment	+0.6%	p35
Net AGI Migration	-$1K	p59

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+6.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY+31.3%

Days on Market YoY+14.1%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Charlottesville's counties diverge significantly — Charlottesville city (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Greene County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High27.4

5 of 5 counties scored

Charlottesville, VA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Charlottesville city contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Greene County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Charlottesville cityRisk Driver	75	Elevated	20.0%	100	25	100
Albemarle County	67	Elevated	20.0%	75	50	75
Fluvanna County	67	Elevated	20.0%	50	100	50
Nelson County	42	Below Average	20.0%	25	75	25
Greene CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	20.0%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	40	38	40	26	14	59
2025-09	Hyp	45	45	40	26	33	59
2025-08	Rec	43	45	40	26	21	59
2025-07	Hyp	43	43	40	26	25	59
2025-06	Ress	50	69	40	30	36	59
2025-04	Ress	50	59	40	30	45	59
2025-03	Hyp	51	79	40	31	34	59
2025-02	Rec	51	85	40	31	26	59
2024-12	Exp	45	66	40	27	13	59
2024-10	Exp	44	60	40	27	14	59
2024-09	Hyp	46	67	40	27	15	59
2024-08	Exp	43	65	40	27	1	59
2024-06	Exp	44	73	40	29	1	59
2024-03	Exp	38	40	40	25	1	59
2024-02	Rec	37	28	40	25	5	59
2023-12	Rec	40	36	40	24	14	59
2023-11	Exp	40	45	40	24	7	59
2023-09	Exp	42	61	40	24	6	59
2023-08	Rec	48	70	40	24	32	59
2023-06	Rec	51	69	40	24	47	59
2023-05	Hyp	47	63	40	24	32	59
2023-03	Hyp	51	86	40	27	29	59
2023-02	Ress	51	88	40	27	28	59
2022-12	Ress	50	79	40	33	26	59
2022-10	Hyp	56	78	40	33	62	59
2022-09	Rec	52	65	40	30	56	59
2022-08	Exp	52	57	40	30	63	59
2022-06	Exp	50	62	40	33	38	59
2022-03	Exp	42	23	40	27	40	59
2022-01	Rec	45	24	40	27	53	59
2021-11	Rec	36	14	40	26	35	34
2021-10	Exp	36	14	40	26	38	34
2021-08	Exp	33	15	40	29	15	34
2021-05	Rec	38	15	40	31	47	34
2021-03	Rec	43	12	40	32	78	34
2021-02	Exp	44	14	40	32	81	34
2020-12	Exp	41	9	40	27	78	28
2020-11	Rec	42	7	40	27	84	28
2020-09	Rec	44	8	40	29	92	28
2020-06	Rec	48	38	40	31	88	28
2020-03	Rec	42	31	40	32	56	28
2019-12	Rec	54	89	40	35	3	95
2019-09	Exp	48	52	40	33	4	95
2019-07	Exp	48	40	40	33	13	95
2019-06	Rec	48	31	40	35	25	95
2019-04	Rec	42	7	40	35	10	95
2019-03	Exp	43	2	40	31	24	95
2019-01	Exp	46	5	40	31	41	95

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022