Rankings/Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 16740Compare

Risk Rank: #256 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -6

32score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Charlotte's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 256th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Charlotte experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap77

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp53

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump22

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+15.5%p65

Days on Market YoY

+7.0%p62

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p65

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+0.9%p22

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-15.6%p22

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.10p77

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.30p53

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.5%p12

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$561Kp5

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-15.6%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 17.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Charlotte's 11 counties show moderate divergence — Union County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Cabarrus County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.9

11 of 11 counties scored

Charlotte, NC-SC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Union County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permits per capita), while Cabarrus County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Union CountyRisk Driver	90	High Risk	9.1%	80	90	90
Rowan County	62	Elevated	5.4%	100	100	40
Gaston County	62	Elevated	8.5%	30	70	70
Iredell County	58	Elevated	7.1%	90	20	60
Chester County<5%	58	Elevated	1.2%	70	80	10
York County	50	Average	10.6%	60	40	50
Lancaster County<5%	48	Average	3.8%	20	50	30
Mecklenburg County	42	Below Average	41.7%	50	0	100
Cabarrus CountyStabilizer	40	Below Average	8.5%	40	10	80
Lincoln County<5%	32	Below Average	3.4%	10	60	20
Anson County<5%	8	Low Risk	0.8%	0	30	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	32	20	18	55	13	5
2025-12	Hyp	34	44	21	55	1	5
2025-10	Hyp	38	47	27	57	2	6
2025-07	Hyp	39	48	27	57	6	6
2025-05	Ress	40	44	27	60	15	6
2025-03	Ress	38	41	27	56	13	6
2025-01	Hyp	43	43	27	56	36	6
2024-11	Hyp	42	31	27	56	41	6
2024-08	Ress	45	37	27	59	51	6
2024-06	Ress	47	62	27	59	42	6
2024-03	Hyp	46	60	27	58	40	6
2024-02	Exp	46	59	27	58	35	6
2023-12	Exp	45	62	27	59	25	6
2023-09	Exp	42	42	27	56	31	6
2023-08	Rec	42	41	27	56	30	6
2023-06	Rec	43	49	27	55	30	6
2023-05	Hyp	45	58	27	55	35	6
2023-03	Hyp	49	79	27	57	36	6
2023-02	Ress	49	80	27	57	33	6
2022-12	Ress	50	88	27	58	29	6
2022-09	Ress	48	91	27	57	16	6
2022-06	Ress	47	88	27	54	20	6
2022-05	Hyp	49	88	27	54	28	6
2022-04	Exp	50	88	27	54	38	6
2022-02	Rec	51	86	27	51	46	6
2021-12	Rec	53	84	27	49	63	7
2021-11	Exp	51	82	27	49	54	7
2021-09	Exp	48	76	27	46	45	7
2021-06	Exp	47	76	27	44	37	7
2021-04	Rec	47	77	27	44	39	7
2021-02	Rec	42	71	27	42	17	7
2020-12	Exp	42	74	27	46	12	7
2020-10	Exp	44	82	27	46	15	7
2020-09	Rec	45	80	27	44	22	7
2020-07	Rec	44	78	27	44	17	7
2020-06	Exp	45	77	27	44	27	7
2020-04	Exp	45	74	27	44	27	7
2020-03	Rec	43	76	27	44	14	7
2020-01	Rec	42	75	27	44	12	7
2019-10	Rec	42	70	27	43	20	4
2019-07	Rec	42	76	27	42	14	4
2019-04	Exp	42	76	27	43	14	4
2019-02	Exp	42	82	27	41	11	4
2019-01	Hyp	43	84	27	41	13	4

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023