Rankings/Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 16740Compare

Risk Rank: #269 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -8

35score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Charlotte experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 7 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Charlotte's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 269th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 7 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p81 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p58 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p43 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +31% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+30.8%p80

Days on Market YoY

+14.3%p74

Months in status21

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.9%p50

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum43

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth20

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita81

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability58

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment1

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration6

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.0%	p43
Permit Growth	-18.2%	p20
Permits/1K Pop	7.63	p81
Affordability	0.28	p58
Employment	+2.7%	p1
Net AGI Migration	+$759K	p6

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-18.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+30.8%

Days on Market YoY+14.3%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 21 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Charlotte's 11 counties show moderate divergence — Gaston County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Iredell County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.1

11 of 11 counties scored

Charlotte, NC-SC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Gaston County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Iredell County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Gaston CountyRisk Driver	73	Elevated	9.1%	70	80	70
Union County	63	Elevated	9.1%	80	30	80
York County	57	Elevated	9.1%	40	70	60
Mecklenburg County	57	Elevated	9.1%	60	10	100
Cabarrus County	53	Average	9.1%	10	60	90
Anson County	50	Average	9.1%	100	50	0
Lincoln County	50	Average	9.1%	90	40	20
Lancaster County	50	Average	9.1%	30	90	30
Rowan County	37	Below Average	9.1%	50	20	40
Chester County	37	Below Average	9.1%	0	100	10
Iredell CountyStabilizer	23	Low Risk	9.1%	20	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	38	47	27	57	2	6
2025-09	Hyp	38	49	27	57	1	6
2025-06	Hyp	39	50	27	60	4	6
2025-05	Ress	40	44	27	60	15	6
2025-03	Ress	38	41	27	56	13	6
2025-01	Hyp	43	43	27	56	36	6
2024-11	Hyp	42	31	27	56	41	6
2024-08	Ress	45	37	27	59	51	6
2024-06	Ress	47	62	27	59	42	6
2024-03	Hyp	46	60	27	58	40	6
2024-02	Exp	46	59	27	58	35	6
2023-12	Exp	45	62	27	59	25	6
2023-09	Exp	42	42	27	56	31	6
2023-08	Rec	42	41	27	56	30	6
2023-06	Rec	43	49	27	55	30	6
2023-05	Hyp	45	58	27	55	35	6
2023-03	Hyp	49	79	27	57	36	6
2023-02	Ress	49	80	27	57	33	6
2022-12	Ress	50	88	27	58	29	6
2022-09	Ress	48	91	27	57	16	6
2022-06	Ress	47	88	27	54	20	6
2022-05	Hyp	49	88	27	54	28	6
2022-04	Exp	50	88	27	54	38	6
2022-02	Rec	51	86	27	51	46	6
2021-12	Rec	53	84	27	49	63	7
2021-11	Exp	51	82	27	49	54	7
2021-09	Exp	48	76	27	46	45	7
2021-06	Exp	47	76	27	44	37	7
2021-04	Rec	47	77	27	44	39	7
2021-02	Rec	42	71	27	42	17	7
2020-12	Exp	42	74	27	46	12	7
2020-10	Exp	44	82	27	46	15	7
2020-09	Rec	45	80	27	44	22	7
2020-07	Rec	44	78	27	44	17	7
2020-06	Exp	45	77	27	44	27	7
2020-04	Exp	45	74	27	44	27	7
2020-03	Rec	43	76	27	44	14	7
2020-01	Rec	42	75	27	44	12	7
2019-10	Rec	42	70	27	43	20	4
2019-07	Rec	42	76	27	42	14	4
2019-04	Exp	42	76	27	43	14	4
2019-02	Exp	42	82	27	41	11	4
2019-01	Hyp	43	84	27	41	13	4

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022