Rankings/Charleston-North Charleston, SC

Charleston-North Charleston, SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 16700Compare

Risk Rank: #217 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -10

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Charleston experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Charleston's housing market shows average risk, ranking 217th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p99 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p89 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p31 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+22% YoY) and days on market are up +10% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+22.4%p72

Days on Market YoY

+9.7%p67

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.6%p84

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum22

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth31

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita89

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability99

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment10

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration5

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.7%	p22
Permit Growth	-12.9%	p31
Permits/1K Pop	8.97	p89
Affordability	0.40	p99
Employment	+1.4%	p10
Net AGI Migration	+$790K	p5

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-12.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+22.4%

Days on Market YoY+9.7%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Charleston's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Charleston County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Berkeley County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Charleston, SC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Charleston County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Berkeley County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Charleston CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	100	0	100
Dorchester County	50	Average	33.3%	50	50	50
Berkeley CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	47	30	44	99	12	5
2025-10	Ress	47	39	44	99	6	5
2025-08	Rec	49	54	44	99	2	5
2025-07	Hyp	51	65	44	99	2	5
2025-05	Hyp	48	51	44	98	1	5
2025-04	Ress	47	44	44	98	1	5
2025-02	Ress	56	85	44	99	9	5
2025-01	Hyp	56	83	44	99	12	5
2024-12	Rec	53	68	44	98	10	5
2024-11	Hyp	52	67	44	98	7	5
2024-09	Hyp	49	48	44	98	7	5
2024-08	Ress	51	62	44	98	8	5
2024-06	Ress	56	94	44	98	7	5
2024-03	Hyp	56	91	44	98	5	5
2024-01	Exp	55	88	44	98	5	5
2023-11	Exp	56	96	44	97	3	5
2023-09	Rec	54	85	44	96	2	5
2023-07	Rec	53	80	44	96	3	5
2023-06	Hyp	52	73	44	96	2	5
2023-04	Hyp	53	83	44	96	1	5
2023-03	Ress	54	84	44	94	3	5
2023-01	Ress	54	83	44	94	4	5
2022-10	Ress	54	85	44	96	4	5
2022-07	Ress	55	88	44	96	6	5
2022-06	Hyp	55	83	44	96	12	5
2022-05	Exp	55	82	44	96	11	5
2022-03	Exp	56	80	44	96	20	5
2022-02	Rec	56	79	44	96	21	5
2021-12	Rec	57	71	43	95	36	7
2021-11	Exp	55	70	43	95	24	7
2021-09	Exp	53	64	43	96	17	7
2021-06	Exp	54	65	43	96	21	7
2021-05	Rec	55	65	43	96	26	7
2021-03	Rec	54	47	43	96	39	7
2020-12	Rec	53	41	43	94	41	7
2020-09	Rec	61	68	43	95	62	7
2020-06	Rec	58	48	43	95	62	7
2020-03	Rec	55	48	43	96	43	7
2019-12	Rec	49	39	43	95	19	6
2019-09	Rec	52	72	43	96	4	6
2019-06	Rec	54	70	43	96	19	6
2019-05	Exp	53	60	43	96	22	6
2019-03	Exp	49	49	43	96	10	6
2019-01	Exp	48	43	43	96	12	6

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022