Rankings/Charleston-North Charleston, SC

Charleston-North Charleston, SC

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 16700Compare

Risk Rank: #21 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +14

64score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Charleston's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 21st of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Charleston experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and price momentum, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp100

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump91

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capitap88

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+11.5%p61

Days on Market YoY

+2.0%p51

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p64

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+3.3%p91

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-7.8%p36

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

9.02p88

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.42p100

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.1%p66

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$765Kp3

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-7.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorGovernment 17.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Charleston's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Dorchester County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Berkeley County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Charleston, SC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Dorchester County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Berkeley County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Charleston County	62	Elevated	50.4%	100	50	100
Dorchester CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	20.0%	0	100	50
Berkeley CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	29.6%	50	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	58	86	30	100	38	3
2025-12	Rec	41	13	31	99	11	3
2025-10	Ress	47	39	44	99	6	5
2025-08	Rec	49	54	44	99	2	5
2025-07	Hyp	51	65	44	99	2	5
2025-05	Hyp	48	51	44	98	1	5
2025-04	Ress	47	44	44	98	1	5
2025-02	Ress	56	85	44	99	9	5
2025-01	Hyp	56	83	44	99	12	5
2024-12	Rec	53	68	44	98	10	5
2024-11	Hyp	52	67	44	98	7	5
2024-09	Hyp	49	48	44	98	7	5
2024-08	Ress	51	62	44	98	8	5
2024-06	Ress	56	94	44	98	7	5
2024-03	Hyp	56	91	44	98	5	5
2024-01	Exp	55	88	44	98	5	5
2023-11	Exp	56	96	44	97	3	5
2023-09	Rec	54	85	44	96	2	5
2023-07	Rec	53	80	44	96	3	5
2023-06	Hyp	52	73	44	96	2	5
2023-04	Hyp	53	83	44	96	1	5
2023-03	Ress	54	84	44	94	3	5
2023-01	Ress	54	83	44	94	4	5
2022-10	Ress	54	85	44	96	4	5
2022-07	Ress	55	88	44	96	6	5
2022-06	Hyp	55	83	44	96	12	5
2022-05	Exp	55	82	44	96	11	5
2022-03	Exp	56	80	44	96	20	5
2022-02	Rec	56	79	44	96	21	5
2021-12	Rec	57	71	43	95	36	7
2021-11	Exp	55	70	43	95	24	7
2021-09	Exp	53	64	43	96	17	7
2021-06	Exp	54	65	43	96	21	7
2021-05	Rec	55	65	43	96	26	7
2021-03	Rec	54	47	43	96	39	7
2020-12	Rec	53	41	43	94	41	7
2020-09	Rec	61	68	43	95	62	7
2020-06	Rec	58	48	43	95	62	7
2020-03	Rec	55	48	43	96	43	7
2019-12	Rec	49	39	43	95	19	6
2019-09	Rec	52	72	43	96	4	6
2019-06	Rec	54	70	43	96	19	6
2019-05	Exp	53	60	43	96	22	6
2019-03	Exp	49	49	43	96	10	6
2019-01	Exp	48	43	43	96	12	6

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023