Rankings/Charleston, WV

Charleston, WV

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 16620Compare

Risk Rank: #284 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -19

27score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Charleston experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Charleston's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 284th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+10% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p65 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p54 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p17 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+10.0%p59

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+7.5%p99

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum14

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth17

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita0

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability13

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment54

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration65

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.0%	p14
Permit Growth	-21.2%	p17
Permits/1K Pop	0.53	p0
Affordability	0.23	p13
Employment	+0.2%	p54
Net AGI Migration	-$12K	p65

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-21.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+10.0%

Days on Market YoY+0.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 11 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	23	11	4	12	48	64
2025-09	Exp	29	19	4	12	74	64
2025-07	Exp	33	46	4	12	70	64
2025-04	Rec	31	15	4	12	93	64
2025-02	Rec	46	94	4	16	96	64
2025-01	Hyp	46	97	4	16	93	64
2024-11	Hyp	46	99	4	18	90	64
2024-10	Ress	44	95	4	18	86	64
2024-08	Ress	43	91	4	13	84	64
2024-07	Hyp	43	95	4	13	81	64
2024-06	Exp	43	100	4	15	73	64
2024-04	Exp	43	100	4	15	75	64
2024-01	Rec	27	3	4	10	80	64
2023-11	Rec	33	68	4	20	44	64
2023-10	Exp	33	86	4	20	24	64
2023-08	Exp	30	51	4	16	45	64
2023-07	Rec	28	45	4	16	41	64
2023-05	Rec	31	13	4	16	88	64
2023-04	Exp	24	11	4	16	50	64
2023-02	Exp	36	59	4	24	63	64
2022-11	Rec	26	3	4	18	69	64
2022-09	Rec	30	0	4	20	94	64
2022-08	Exp	30	0	4	20	90	64
2022-06	Exp	29	2	4	23	83	64
2022-04	Rec	30	2	4	23	84	64
2022-02	Rec	28	1	4	23	78	64
2022-01	Exp	29	1	4	23	81	64
2021-11	Exp	32	6	3	19	92	70
2021-08	Exp	30	7	3	19	80	70
2021-05	Exp	30	9	3	20	75	70
2021-04	Rec	29	11	3	20	72	70
2021-02	Rec	32	25	3	25	67	70
2020-12	Exp	28	11	3	36	49	71
2020-10	Exp	31	14	3	36	64	71
2020-09	Rec	35	25	3	42	67	71
2020-07	Rec	34	19	3	42	66	71
2020-04	Rec	35	43	3	41	54	71
2020-01	Exp	33	19	3	44	60	71
2019-11	Exp	35	0	3	43	89	73
2019-08	Exp	36	2	3	45	95	73
2019-06	Rec	36	1	3	41	95	73
2019-04	Rec	36	0	3	41	98	73
2019-03	Exp	37	0	3	47	97	73
2019-01	Exp	37	0	3	47	100	73

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022