Rankings/Charleston, WV

Charleston, WV

NeutralTier 1CBSA 16620Compare

Risk Rank: #174 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +17

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Charleston's housing market shows average risk, ranking 174th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Charleston experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-0% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-3.1% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump99

12-month HPI change

Employmentp85

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-0% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-0.3%p48

Days on Market YoY

-7.8%p32

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.1%p21

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+7.4%p99

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-32.9%p6

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.45p0

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.26p20

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.7%p85

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$13Kp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-32.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 55.7%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	46	99	6	18	83	67
2025-12	Rec	28	15	18	12	54	67
2025-09	Exp	29	19	4	12	74	64
2025-07	Exp	33	46	4	12	70	64
2025-04	Rec	31	15	4	12	93	64
2025-02	Rec	46	94	4	16	96	64
2025-01	Hyp	46	97	4	16	93	64
2024-11	Hyp	46	99	4	18	90	64
2024-10	Ress	44	95	4	18	86	64
2024-08	Ress	43	91	4	13	84	64
2024-07	Hyp	43	95	4	13	81	64
2024-06	Exp	43	100	4	15	73	64
2024-04	Exp	43	100	4	15	75	64
2024-01	Rec	27	3	4	10	80	64
2023-11	Rec	33	68	4	20	44	64
2023-10	Exp	33	86	4	20	24	64
2023-08	Exp	30	51	4	16	45	64
2023-07	Rec	28	45	4	16	41	64
2023-05	Rec	31	13	4	16	88	64
2023-04	Exp	24	11	4	16	50	64
2023-02	Exp	36	59	4	24	63	64
2022-11	Rec	26	3	4	18	69	64
2022-09	Rec	30	0	4	20	94	64
2022-08	Exp	30	0	4	20	90	64
2022-06	Exp	29	2	4	23	83	64
2022-04	Rec	30	2	4	23	84	64
2022-02	Rec	28	1	4	23	78	64
2022-01	Exp	29	1	4	23	81	64
2021-11	Exp	32	6	3	19	92	70
2021-08	Exp	30	7	3	19	80	70
2021-05	Exp	30	9	3	20	75	70
2021-04	Rec	29	11	3	20	72	70
2021-02	Rec	32	25	3	25	67	70
2020-12	Exp	28	11	3	36	49	71
2020-10	Exp	31	14	3	36	64	71
2020-09	Rec	35	25	3	42	67	71
2020-07	Rec	34	19	3	42	66	71
2020-04	Rec	35	43	3	41	54	71
2020-01	Exp	33	19	3	44	60	71
2019-11	Exp	35	0	3	43	89	73
2019-08	Exp	36	2	3	45	95	73
2019-06	Rec	36	1	3	41	95	73
2019-04	Rec	36	0	3	41	98	73
2019-03	Exp	37	0	3	47	97	73
2019-01	Exp	37	0	3	47	100	73

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023