Rankings/Charleston, WV

Charleston, WV

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 16620Compare

Risk Rank: #269 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -18

28score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Charleston's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 269th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+10% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Charleston experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp54

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp18

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+10.0%p59

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+6.4%p99

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.8%p15

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-21.2%p18

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.53p0

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p12

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.2%p54

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$13Kp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-21.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 55.7%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	23	11	4	12	48	64
2025-09	Exp	29	19	4	12	74	64
2025-07	Exp	33	46	4	12	70	64
2025-04	Rec	31	15	4	12	93	64
2025-02	Rec	46	94	4	16	96	64
2025-01	Hyp	46	97	4	16	93	64
2024-11	Hyp	46	99	4	18	90	64
2024-10	Ress	44	95	4	18	86	64
2024-08	Ress	43	91	4	13	84	64
2024-07	Hyp	43	95	4	13	81	64
2024-06	Exp	43	100	4	15	73	64
2024-04	Exp	43	100	4	15	75	64
2024-01	Rec	27	3	4	10	80	64
2023-11	Rec	33	68	4	20	44	64
2023-10	Exp	33	86	4	20	24	64
2023-08	Exp	30	51	4	16	45	64
2023-07	Rec	28	45	4	16	41	64
2023-05	Rec	31	13	4	16	88	64
2023-04	Exp	24	11	4	16	50	64
2023-02	Exp	36	59	4	24	63	64
2022-11	Rec	26	3	4	18	69	64
2022-09	Rec	30	0	4	20	94	64
2022-08	Exp	30	0	4	20	90	64
2022-06	Exp	29	2	4	23	83	64
2022-04	Rec	30	2	4	23	84	64
2022-02	Rec	28	1	4	23	78	64
2022-01	Exp	29	1	4	23	81	64
2021-11	Exp	32	6	3	19	92	70
2021-08	Exp	30	7	3	19	80	70
2021-05	Exp	30	9	3	20	75	70
2021-04	Rec	29	11	3	20	72	70
2021-02	Rec	32	25	3	25	67	70
2020-12	Exp	28	11	3	36	49	71
2020-10	Exp	31	14	3	36	64	71
2020-09	Rec	35	25	3	42	67	71
2020-07	Rec	34	19	3	42	66	71
2020-04	Rec	35	43	3	41	54	71
2020-01	Exp	33	19	3	44	60	71
2019-11	Exp	35	0	3	43	89	73
2019-08	Exp	36	2	3	45	95	73
2019-06	Rec	36	1	3	41	95	73
2019-04	Rec	36	0	3	41	98	73
2019-03	Exp	37	0	3	47	97	73
2019-01	Exp	37	0	3	47	100	73

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023