Rankings/Champaign-Urbana, IL

Champaign-Urbana, IL

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 16580Compare

Risk Rank: #2 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +29

76score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Champaign has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Recession.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Champaign's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 2nd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p100 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p92 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Migration

p87 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +38% YoY with days on market up -5% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+37.8%p85

Days on Market YoY

-4.8%p38

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.0%p24

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum100

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth92

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita48

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability50

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration87

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+8.7%	p100
Permit Growth	+44.3%	p92
Permits/1K Pop	3.70	p48
Affordability	0.27	p50
Employment	-0.4%	p82
Net AGI Migration	-$116K	p87

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+44.3%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal supply meeting deteriorating demand. Correction risk is rising — new units are entering a market where existing inventory is already building.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+37.8%

Days on Market YoY-4.8%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Champaign's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Ford County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Champaign County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Champaign, IL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Ford County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Champaign County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Ford CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	100	100	0
Piatt County	50	Average	33.3%	50	50	50
Champaign CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	0	0	100

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	66	99	45	49	88	87
2025-09	Hyp	64	97	45	49	78	87
2025-08	Rec	59	98	45	49	46	87
2025-06	Rec	56	90	45	39	47	87
2025-05	Exp	49	90	45	39	2	87
2025-03	Exp	43	44	45	34	17	87
2025-01	Rec	58	56	45	34	97	87
2024-11	Rec	54	83	45	36	40	87
2024-08	Rec	64	94	45	35	90	87
2024-07	Hyp	64	94	45	35	95	87
2024-05	Hyp	56	86	45	34	52	87
2024-04	Rec	52	81	45	34	37	87
2024-03	Exp	63	92	45	32	92	87
2024-01	Exp	64	100	45	32	88	87
2023-10	Exp	58	83	45	29	70	87
2023-08	Rec	54	58	45	28	78	87
2023-06	Rec	53	65	45	28	63	87
2023-04	Exp	60	79	45	28	87	87
2023-02	Exp	48	20	45	20	82	87
2022-12	Rec	54	42	45	20	99	87
2022-10	Rec	42	28	45	20	41	87
2022-09	Exp	48	41	45	23	61	87
2022-07	Exp	41	33	45	23	27	87
2022-04	Exp	40	3	45	20	56	87
2022-02	Rec	38	6	45	20	39	87
2021-12	Rec	38	18	45	20	31	84
2021-11	Exp	38	15	45	20	34	84
2021-09	Exp	42	13	45	20	61	84
2021-06	Exp	44	16	45	23	67	84
2021-05	Rec	44	16	45	23	69	84
2021-03	Rec	39	8	45	22	47	84
2021-02	Exp	39	7	45	22	46	84
2020-12	Exp	41	11	45	32	47	83
2020-11	Rec	41	10	45	32	44	83
2020-09	Rec	38	13	45	36	22	83
2020-06	Exp	39	4	45	36	36	83
2020-04	Exp	35	3	45	36	15	83
2020-03	Rec	35	3	45	40	11	83
2020-01	Rec	34	8	45	40	0	83
2019-11	Exp	38	1	45	41	28	83
2019-09	Exp	42	3	45	43	52	83
2019-06	Rec	40	7	45	46	32	83
2019-04	Rec	46	8	45	46	68	83
2019-03	Exp	46	7	45	45	65	83
2019-01	Exp	45	14	45	45	53	83

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022