Rankings/Champaign-Urbana, IL

Champaign-Urbana, IL

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 16580Compare

Risk Rank: #8 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +22

69score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Champaign's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 8th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Champaign has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Recession.

Inventory has surged +38% YoY with days on market up -5% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp92

YoY permit change

Migrationp90

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +38% YoY with days on market up -5% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+37.8%p85

Days on Market YoY

-4.8%p38

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.5%p83

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.9%p65

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+44.3%p92

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.70p47

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p36

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.4%p82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$87Kp90

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+44.3%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal supply meeting deteriorating demand. Correction risk is rising — new units are entering a market where existing inventory is already building.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorRetail Trade 23.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Champaign's 3 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low0.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Champaign, IL shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Ford County contributes the most structural risk (Average, driven by price momentum), while Champaign County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Champaign CountyStabilizer	50	Average	87.4%	0	0	100
Ford CountyRisk Driver	50	Average	5.6%	100	100	0
Piatt County	50	Average	7.0%	50	50	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	66	99	45	49	88	87
2025-09	Hyp	64	97	45	49	78	87
2025-08	Rec	59	98	45	49	46	87
2025-06	Rec	56	90	45	39	47	87
2025-05	Exp	49	90	45	39	2	87
2025-03	Exp	43	44	45	34	17	87
2025-01	Rec	58	56	45	34	97	87
2024-11	Rec	54	83	45	36	40	87
2024-08	Rec	64	94	45	35	90	87
2024-07	Hyp	64	94	45	35	95	87
2024-05	Hyp	56	86	45	34	52	87
2024-04	Rec	52	81	45	34	37	87
2024-03	Exp	63	92	45	32	92	87
2024-01	Exp	64	100	45	32	88	87
2023-10	Exp	58	83	45	29	70	87
2023-08	Rec	54	58	45	28	78	87
2023-06	Rec	53	65	45	28	63	87
2023-04	Exp	60	79	45	28	87	87
2023-02	Exp	48	20	45	20	82	87
2022-12	Rec	54	42	45	20	99	87
2022-10	Rec	42	28	45	20	41	87
2022-09	Exp	48	41	45	23	61	87
2022-07	Exp	41	33	45	23	27	87
2022-04	Exp	40	3	45	20	56	87
2022-02	Rec	38	6	45	20	39	87
2021-12	Rec	38	18	45	20	31	84
2021-11	Exp	38	15	45	20	34	84
2021-09	Exp	42	13	45	20	61	84
2021-06	Exp	44	16	45	23	67	84
2021-05	Rec	44	16	45	23	69	84
2021-03	Rec	39	8	45	22	47	84
2021-02	Exp	39	7	45	22	46	84
2020-12	Exp	41	11	45	32	47	83
2020-11	Rec	41	10	45	32	44	83
2020-09	Rec	38	13	45	36	22	83
2020-06	Exp	39	4	45	36	36	83
2020-04	Exp	35	3	45	36	15	83
2020-03	Rec	35	3	45	40	11	83
2020-01	Rec	34	8	45	40	0	83
2019-11	Exp	38	1	45	41	28	83
2019-09	Exp	42	3	45	43	52	83
2019-06	Rec	40	7	45	46	32	83
2019-04	Rec	46	8	45	46	68	83
2019-03	Exp	46	7	45	45	65	83
2019-01	Exp	45	14	45	45	53	83

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023