Rankings/Chambersburg, PA

Chambersburg, PA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 16540Compare

Risk Rank: #8 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +42

69score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Chambersburg experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Chambersburg's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 8th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p96 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p88 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Employment

p84 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+2.6%p51

Days on Market YoY

+37.5%p91

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-5.1%p10

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum96

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth88

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita71

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability28

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment84

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration45

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+7.0%	p96
Permit Growth	+33.7%	p88
Permits/1K Pop	6.30	p71
Affordability	0.25	p28
Employment	-0.5%	p84
Net AGI Migration	+$21K	p45

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+33.7%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+2.6%

Days on Market YoY+37.5%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	54	95	22	27	84	45
2025-10	Ress	54	92	22	27	87	45
2025-08	Hyp	46	88	22	27	43	45
2025-06	Hyp	34	44	22	22	22	45
2025-05	Ress	33	54	22	22	9	45
2025-03	Ress	26	14	22	20	4	45
2025-02	Hyp	24	7	22	20	2	45
2025-01	Ress	24	4	22	20	4	45
2024-11	Ress	32	57	22	21	1	45
2024-10	Hyp	37	85	22	21	0	45
2024-09	Ress	39	95	22	23	1	45
2024-07	Ress	35	69	22	23	3	45
2024-06	Hyp	36	63	22	22	16	45
2024-05	Rec	41	72	22	22	36	45
2024-03	Hyp	54	97	22	28	81	45
2024-02	Exp	55	89	22	28	99	45
2023-12	Exp	39	11	22	10	99	45
2023-09	Rec	44	39	22	14	99	45
2023-07	Rec	44	33	22	14	99	45
2023-04	Rec	43	35	22	11	97	45
2023-01	Ress	47	85	22	17	67	45
2022-11	Ress	43	69	22	15	57	45
2022-10	Exp	40	65	22	15	47	45
2022-08	Exp	44	72	22	16	63	45
2022-05	Ress	37	30	22	12	66	45
2022-04	Rec	35	31	22	12	53	45
2022-02	Ress	34	10	22	10	71	45
2021-12	Rec	39	13	22	15	89	46
2021-10	Exp	41	22	22	15	95	46
2021-08	Exp	38	23	22	14	78	46
2021-05	Exp	34	17	22	14	58	46
2021-04	Rec	32	16	22	14	48	46
2021-02	Rec	42	59	22	18	63	46
2021-01	Exp	43	61	22	19	64	46
2020-11	Exp	34	27	22	16	47	45
2020-10	Rec	34	25	22	17	49	45
2020-08	Rec	35	22	22	16	56	45
2020-05	Rec	38	31	22	18	62	45
2020-02	Rec	37	6	22	17	83	45
2019-11	Exp	36	16	22	17	72	39
2019-09	Exp	37	33	22	17	64	39
2019-06	Rec	37	47	22	18	47	39
2019-04	Rec	38	49	22	18	54	39
2019-03	Exp	35	53	22	20	29	39
2019-01	Exp	37	24	22	20	69	39

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022