Rankings/Chambersburg, PA

Chambersburg, PA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 16540Compare

Risk Rank: #268 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -20

26score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Chambersburg's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 268th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Chambersburg experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +39% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and migration, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap60

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp43

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp25

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +39% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+21.0%p71

Days on Market YoY

+38.9%p92

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.1%p87

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.1%p10

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-17.9%p18

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

5.08p60

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p25

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+3.0%p1

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$22Kp43

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-17.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 14.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	33	12	49	25	4	43
2026-05	Rec	36	33	41	25	8	43
2025-11	Rec	54	95	22	27	84	45
2025-10	Ress	54	92	22	27	87	45
2025-08	Hyp	46	88	22	27	43	45
2025-06	Hyp	34	44	22	22	22	45
2025-05	Ress	33	54	22	22	9	45
2025-03	Ress	26	14	22	20	4	45
2025-02	Hyp	24	7	22	20	2	45
2025-01	Ress	24	4	22	20	4	45
2024-11	Ress	32	57	22	21	1	45
2024-10	Hyp	37	85	22	21	0	45
2024-09	Ress	39	95	22	23	1	45
2024-07	Ress	35	69	22	23	3	45
2024-06	Hyp	36	63	22	22	16	45
2024-05	Rec	41	72	22	22	36	45
2024-03	Hyp	54	97	22	28	81	45
2024-02	Exp	55	89	22	28	99	45
2023-12	Exp	39	11	22	10	99	45
2023-09	Rec	44	39	22	14	99	45
2023-07	Rec	44	33	22	14	99	45
2023-04	Rec	43	35	22	11	97	45
2023-01	Ress	47	85	22	17	67	45
2022-11	Ress	43	69	22	15	57	45
2022-10	Exp	40	65	22	15	47	45
2022-08	Exp	44	72	22	16	63	45
2022-05	Ress	37	30	22	12	66	45
2022-04	Rec	35	31	22	12	53	45
2022-02	Ress	34	10	22	10	71	45
2021-12	Rec	39	13	22	15	89	46
2021-10	Exp	41	22	22	15	95	46
2021-08	Exp	38	23	22	14	78	46
2021-05	Exp	34	17	22	14	58	46
2021-04	Rec	32	16	22	14	48	46
2021-02	Rec	42	59	22	18	63	46
2021-01	Exp	43	61	22	19	64	46
2020-11	Exp	34	27	22	16	47	45
2020-10	Rec	34	25	22	17	49	45
2020-08	Rec	35	22	22	16	56	45
2020-05	Rec	38	31	22	18	62	45
2020-02	Rec	37	6	22	17	83	45
2019-11	Exp	36	16	22	17	72	39
2019-09	Exp	37	33	22	17	64	39
2019-06	Rec	37	47	22	18	47	39
2019-04	Rec	38	49	22	18	54	39
2019-03	Exp	35	53	22	20	29	39
2019-01	Exp	37	24	22	20	69	39

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023