Rankings/Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 15980Compare

Risk Rank: #252 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -15

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Cape Coral experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Cape Coral's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 252nd of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p99 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p61 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p35 (below average risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+3.5%p52

Days on Market YoY

+8.2%p64

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.8%p76

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum1

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth31

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita99

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability61

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment35

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration3

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-5.4%	p1
Permit Growth	-12.3%	p31
Permits/1K Pop	16.56	p99
Affordability	0.29	p61
Employment	+0.6%	p35
Net AGI Migration	+$2M	p3

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-12.3%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+3.5%

Days on Market YoY+8.2%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	42	0	67	60	22	3
2025-09	Rec	48	0	67	60	58	3
2025-08	Hyp	48	0	67	60	62	3
2025-06	Hyp	48	0	67	64	57	3
2025-04	Ress	53	0	67	64	83	3
2025-02	Ress	55	0	67	74	87	3
2025-01	Hyp	54	0	67	74	78	3
2024-11	Hyp	55	1	67	80	80	3
2024-08	Hyp	45	1	67	80	20	3
2024-05	Hyp	44	0	67	82	12	3
2024-04	Ress	43	1	67	82	5	3
2024-02	Ress	43	2	67	84	2	3
2024-01	Hyp	42	1	67	84	1	3
2023-12	Ress	46	9	67	94	3	3
2023-10	Ress	47	18	67	94	0	3
2023-09	Hyp	52	11	67	94	41	3
2023-07	Hyp	54	14	67	94	45	3
2023-04	Hyp	60	50	67	96	42	3
2023-03	Ress	63	76	67	95	39	3
2023-01	Ress	68	82	67	95	64	3
2022-11	Hyp	73	88	67	94	88	3
2022-09	Ress	62	99	67	94	9	3
2022-07	Ress	62	99	67	94	8	3
2022-04	Exp	62	100	67	92	10	3
2022-02	Exp	63	100	67	93	18	3
2021-11	Exp	60	99	67	88	3	3
2021-08	Exp	60	95	67	86	7	3
2021-05	Rec	61	92	67	82	23	3
2021-03	Rec	57	79	67	80	13	3
2020-12	Rec	60	85	67	79	29	3
2020-09	Rec	52	45	67	77	24	3
2020-06	Exp	57	77	67	78	20	3
2020-04	Exp	63	71	67	78	62	3
2020-03	Rec	50	30	67	75	24	3
2020-01	Rec	46	20	67	75	13	3
2019-10	Rec	44	16	67	77	4	3
2019-07	Rec	45	13	67	76	11	3
2019-04	Rec	48	30	67	76	12	3
2019-02	Hyp	50	34	67	79	18	3
2019-01	Exp	50	28	67	78	23	3

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022