Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
Executive Summary
Cape Coral's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 234th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.
Cape Coral experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.
Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.
Cycle Phase
Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while price momentum provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
Sharp CoolingRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.
Employment Concentration
Employment
DiversifiedInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 42 |
| 2025-09 | 48 |
| 2025-08 | 48 |
| 2025-06 | 48 |
| 2025-04 | 53 |
| 2025-02 | 55 |
| 2025-01 | 54 |
| 2024-11 | 55 |
| 2024-08 | 45 |
| 2024-05 | 44 |
| 2024-04 | 43 |
| 2024-02 | 43 |
| 2024-01 | 42 |
| 2023-12 | 46 |
| 2023-10 | 47 |
| 2023-09 | 52 |
| 2023-07 | 54 |
| 2023-04 | 60 |
| 2023-03 | 63 |
| 2023-01 | 68 |
| 2022-11 | 73 |
| 2022-09 | 62 |
| 2022-07 | 62 |
| 2022-04 | 62 |
| 2022-02 | 63 |
| 2021-11 | 60 |
| 2021-08 | 60 |
| 2021-05 | 61 |
| 2021-03 | 57 |
| 2020-12 | 60 |
| 2020-09 | 52 |
| 2020-06 | 57 |
| 2020-04 | 63 |
| 2020-03 | 50 |
| 2020-01 | 46 |
| 2019-10 | 44 |
| 2019-07 | 45 |
| 2019-04 | 48 |
| 2019-02 | 50 |
| 2019-01 | 50 |