Rankings/Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 15980Compare

Risk Rank: #239 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -12

36score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Cape Coral's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 239th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (-16% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Cape Coral experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is declining (-16% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap97

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp55

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-16% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-16.2%p30

Days on Market YoY

-10.4%p28

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.4%p82

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-1.7%p1

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-25.6%p9

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

13.76p97

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.30p55

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.5%p49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$1Mp2

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-25.6%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorGovernment 14.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	44	45	7	62	52	2
2025-12	Rec	39	1	31	64	36	2
2025-09	Rec	48	0	67	60	58	3
2025-08	Hyp	48	0	67	60	62	3
2025-06	Hyp	48	0	67	64	57	3
2025-04	Ress	53	0	67	64	83	3
2025-02	Ress	55	0	67	74	87	3
2025-01	Hyp	54	0	67	74	78	3
2024-11	Hyp	55	1	67	80	80	3
2024-08	Hyp	45	1	67	80	20	3
2024-05	Hyp	44	0	67	82	12	3
2024-04	Ress	43	1	67	82	5	3
2024-02	Ress	43	2	67	84	2	3
2024-01	Hyp	42	1	67	84	1	3
2023-12	Ress	46	9	67	94	3	3
2023-10	Ress	47	18	67	94	0	3
2023-09	Hyp	52	11	67	94	41	3
2023-07	Hyp	54	14	67	94	45	3
2023-04	Hyp	60	50	67	96	42	3
2023-03	Ress	63	76	67	95	39	3
2023-01	Ress	68	82	67	95	64	3
2022-11	Hyp	73	88	67	94	88	3
2022-09	Ress	62	99	67	94	9	3
2022-07	Ress	62	99	67	94	8	3
2022-04	Exp	62	100	67	92	10	3
2022-02	Exp	63	100	67	93	18	3
2021-11	Exp	60	99	67	88	3	3
2021-08	Exp	60	95	67	86	7	3
2021-05	Rec	61	92	67	82	23	3
2021-03	Rec	57	79	67	80	13	3
2020-12	Rec	60	85	67	79	29	3
2020-09	Rec	52	45	67	77	24	3
2020-06	Exp	57	77	67	78	20	3
2020-04	Exp	63	71	67	78	62	3
2020-03	Rec	50	30	67	75	24	3
2020-01	Rec	46	20	67	75	13	3
2019-10	Rec	44	16	67	77	4	3
2019-07	Rec	45	13	67	76	11	3
2019-04	Rec	48	30	67	76	12	3
2019-02	Hyp	50	34	67	79	18	3
2019-01	Exp	50	28	67	78	23	3

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023