Rankings/Canton-Massillon, OH

Canton-Massillon, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 15940Compare

Risk Rank: #96 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +12

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Canton's housing market shows average risk, ranking 96th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Canton experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump88

12-month HPI change

Employmentp82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp73

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+15.1%p65

Days on Market YoY

+6.1%p60

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.1%p62

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.4%p88

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+16.8%p73

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.65p12

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p22

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.6%p82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$11Kp47

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+16.8%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Heavy building into softening demand. The construction pipeline may outrun absorption — watch for inventory acceleration in coming months.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 20.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	54	89	77	20	82	47
2025-12	Rec	52	76	84	19	74	47
2025-10	Hyp	48	96	51	20	71	41
2025-08	Rec	42	93	51	20	42	41
2025-06	Hyp	41	65	51	16	64	41
2025-05	Ress	42	73	51	16	61	41
2025-03	Ress	44	90	51	18	55	41
2025-02	Hyp	43	86	51	18	55	41
2025-01	Rec	44	79	51	18	67	41
2024-11	Exp	40	63	51	15	63	41
2024-09	Exp	38	84	51	17	26	41
2024-08	Hyp	37	85	51	17	23	41
2024-07	Exp	35	83	51	17	12	41
2024-05	Exp	32	57	51	14	21	41
2024-04	Rec	30	51	51	14	17	41
2024-02	Rec	36	70	51	17	29	41
2024-01	Exp	37	74	51	17	33	41
2023-11	Exp	36	63	51	19	35	41
2023-08	Rec	40	64	51	18	59	41
2023-06	Rec	48	85	51	20	87	41
2023-04	Ress	48	81	51	20	90	41
2023-02	Ress	44	54	51	19	92	41
2022-12	Hyp	41	34	51	14	98	41
2022-10	Rec	40	31	51	14	98	41
2022-08	Hyp	38	17	51	13	100	41
2022-07	Exp	37	15	51	13	97	41
2022-05	Exp	37	13	51	13	98	41
2022-02	Exp	40	31	51	15	98	41
2022-01	Rec	40	32	51	15	95	41
2021-11	Rec	40	30	51	16	84	53
2021-10	Exp	40	28	51	16	86	53
2021-08	Exp	43	45	51	18	86	53
2021-05	Exp	37	40	51	16	53	53
2021-04	Rec	32	39	51	16	26	53
2021-02	Rec	36	39	51	16	52	53
2021-01	Exp	37	40	51	16	56	53
2020-11	Exp	41	57	51	16	54	59
2020-10	Rec	41	53	51	17	58	59
2020-08	Rec	35	27	51	15	52	59
2020-06	Exp	36	31	51	15	53	59
2020-04	Exp	46	63	51	15	79	59
2020-03	Rec	49	73	51	15	91	59
2020-01	Rec	46	67	51	15	75	59
2019-11	Exp	50	82	51	16	87	54
2019-09	Exp	50	87	51	16	85	54
2019-06	Rec	41	28	51	14	93	54
2019-04	Rec	42	37	51	14	86	54
2019-03	Exp	43	41	51	14	93	54
2019-01	Exp	44	45	51	14	95	54

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023