Rankings/Canton-Massillon, OH

Canton-Massillon, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 15940Compare

Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +18

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Canton experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Canton's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p90 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p84 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Employment

p74 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+9.2%p58

Days on Market YoY

+2.3%p53

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.4%p42

Months in status44

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum90

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth84

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita13

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability21

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment74

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration42

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.2%	p90
Permit Growth	+23.2%	p84
Permits/1K Pop	1.63	p13
Affordability	0.24	p21
Employment	-0.2%	p74
Net AGI Migration	+$30K	p42

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+23.2%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+9.2%

Days on Market YoY+2.3%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	47	94	51	20	68	41
2025-10	Hyp	48	96	51	20	71	41
2025-08	Rec	42	93	51	20	42	41
2025-06	Hyp	41	65	51	16	64	41
2025-05	Ress	42	73	51	16	61	41
2025-03	Ress	44	90	51	18	55	41
2025-02	Hyp	43	86	51	18	55	41
2025-01	Rec	44	79	51	18	67	41
2024-11	Exp	40	63	51	15	63	41
2024-09	Exp	38	84	51	17	26	41
2024-08	Hyp	37	85	51	17	23	41
2024-07	Exp	35	83	51	17	12	41
2024-05	Exp	32	57	51	14	21	41
2024-04	Rec	30	51	51	14	17	41
2024-02	Rec	36	70	51	17	29	41
2024-01	Exp	37	74	51	17	33	41
2023-11	Exp	36	63	51	19	35	41
2023-08	Rec	40	64	51	18	59	41
2023-06	Rec	48	85	51	20	87	41
2023-04	Ress	48	81	51	20	90	41
2023-02	Ress	44	54	51	19	92	41
2022-12	Hyp	41	34	51	14	98	41
2022-10	Rec	40	31	51	14	98	41
2022-08	Hyp	38	17	51	13	100	41
2022-07	Exp	37	15	51	13	97	41
2022-05	Exp	37	13	51	13	98	41
2022-02	Exp	40	31	51	15	98	41
2022-01	Rec	40	32	51	15	95	41
2021-11	Rec	40	30	51	16	84	53
2021-10	Exp	40	28	51	16	86	53
2021-08	Exp	43	45	51	18	86	53
2021-05	Exp	37	40	51	16	53	53
2021-04	Rec	32	39	51	16	26	53
2021-02	Rec	36	39	51	16	52	53
2021-01	Exp	37	40	51	16	56	53
2020-11	Exp	41	57	51	16	54	59
2020-10	Rec	41	53	51	17	58	59
2020-08	Rec	35	27	51	15	52	59
2020-06	Exp	36	31	51	15	53	59
2020-04	Exp	46	63	51	15	79	59
2020-03	Rec	49	73	51	15	91	59
2020-01	Rec	46	67	51	15	75	59
2019-11	Exp	50	82	51	16	87	54
2019-09	Exp	50	87	51	16	85	54
2019-06	Rec	41	28	51	14	93	54
2019-04	Rec	42	37	51	14	86	54
2019-03	Exp	43	41	51	14	93	54
2019-01	Exp	44	45	51	14	95	54

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022