Rankings/Burlington-South Burlington, VT

Burlington-South Burlington, VT

NeutralTier 1CBSA 15540Compare

Risk Rank: #72 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +8

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Burlington's housing market shows average risk, ranking 72nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Burlington experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+29% YoY) and days on market are up +2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and employment, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp87

YoY permit change

Employmentp68

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap60

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+29% YoY) and days on market are up +2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+28.7%p79

Days on Market YoY

+1.8%p51

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.0%p64

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.1%p26

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+34.5%p87

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.96p60

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p45

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.1%p68

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$2Kp54

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+34.5%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Heavy building into softening demand. The construction pipeline may outrun absorption — watch for inventory acceleration in coming months.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorRetail Trade 22.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	55	33	83	52	46	54
2025-12	Hyp	49	29	68	48	33	54
2025-10	Rec	51	75	33	57	41	40
2025-09	Hyp	47	81	33	57	15	40
2025-07	Hyp	48	85	33	57	15	40
2025-06	Ress	40	55	33	52	5	40
2025-04	Ress	44	35	33	52	45	40
2025-03	Hyp	46	48	33	53	44	40
2025-01	Hyp	48	71	33	53	35	40
2024-11	Ress	57	91	33	51	69	40
2024-09	Ress	57	77	33	51	85	40
2024-08	Hyp	52	60	33	51	73	40
2024-07	Ress	50	42	33	51	76	40
2024-05	Ress	61	89	33	55	90	40
2024-02	Rec	50	67	33	48	51	40
2024-01	Hyp	52	66	33	48	70	40
2023-11	Hyp	43	59	33	20	49	40
2023-10	Exp	42	68	33	20	32	40
2023-08	Rec	47	89	33	25	38	40
2023-06	Rec	44	78	33	22	35	40
2023-05	Hyp	48	88	33	22	50	40
2023-04	Rec	48	94	33	22	39	40
2023-03	Ress	50	96	33	23	47	40
2023-01	Ress	48	96	33	23	38	40
2022-12	Rec	54	74	33	33	88	40
2022-11	Exp	50	67	33	33	67	40
2022-09	Exp	54	78	33	38	78	40
2022-06	Exp	47	40	33	30	80	40
2022-03	Exp	40	24	33	27	55	40
2021-12	Exp	42	42	33	24	62	37
2021-11	Rec	46	44	33	24	81	37
2021-09	Rec	44	35	33	23	76	37
2021-08	Exp	39	37	33	23	48	37
2021-06	Exp	34	30	33	23	25	37
2021-03	Rec	46	55	33	24	73	37
2021-01	Rec	48	53	33	24	84	37
2020-12	Exp	49	51	33	28	85	40
2020-10	Exp	46	42	33	28	73	40
2020-09	Rec	45	31	33	27	83	40
2020-07	Rec	45	26	33	28	85	40
2020-05	Exp	44	26	33	27	84	40
2020-03	Exp	46	26	33	28	95	40
2020-02	Rec	44	24	33	28	80	40
2019-12	Rec	45	30	33	28	75	45
2019-11	Exp	46	30	33	28	80	45
2019-09	Exp	48	43	33	29	82	45
2019-08	Rec	50	47	33	29	88	45
2019-06	Rec	41	21	33	28	61	45
2019-03	Exp	41	14	33	30	64	45
2019-01	Exp	42	23	33	30	61	45

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023