Rankings/Burlington-South Burlington, VT

Burlington-South Burlington, VT

NeutralTier 1CBSA 15540Compare

Risk Rank: #71 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +2

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Burlington experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Burlington's housing market shows average risk, ranking 71st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p78 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p68 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p65 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+26% YoY) and days on market are up +1% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+26.4%p76

Days on Market YoY

+1.4%p50

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.1%p22

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum78

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth68

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita65

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability58

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment32

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration40

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.0%	p78
Permit Growth	+8.1%	p68
Permits/1K Pop	5.47	p65
Affordability	0.28	p58
Employment	+0.7%	p32
Net AGI Migration	+$39K	p40

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+8.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+26.4%

Days on Market YoY+1.4%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Burlington's counties diverge significantly — Chittenden County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Grand Isle County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High26.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Burlington, VT shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Chittenden County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Grand Isle County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Chittenden CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	50	100	100
Franklin County	50	Average	33.3%	100	0	50
Grand Isle CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	56	77	33	57	69	40
2025-10	Rec	51	75	33	57	41	40
2025-09	Hyp	47	81	33	57	15	40
2025-07	Hyp	48	85	33	57	15	40
2025-06	Ress	40	55	33	52	5	40
2025-04	Ress	44	35	33	52	45	40
2025-03	Hyp	46	48	33	53	44	40
2025-01	Hyp	48	71	33	53	35	40
2024-11	Ress	57	91	33	51	69	40
2024-09	Ress	57	77	33	51	85	40
2024-08	Hyp	52	60	33	51	73	40
2024-07	Ress	50	42	33	51	76	40
2024-05	Ress	61	89	33	55	90	40
2024-02	Rec	50	67	33	48	51	40
2024-01	Hyp	52	66	33	48	70	40
2023-11	Hyp	43	59	33	20	49	40
2023-10	Exp	42	68	33	20	32	40
2023-08	Rec	47	89	33	25	38	40
2023-06	Rec	44	78	33	22	35	40
2023-05	Hyp	48	88	33	22	50	40
2023-04	Rec	48	94	33	22	39	40
2023-03	Ress	50	96	33	23	47	40
2023-01	Ress	48	96	33	23	38	40
2022-12	Rec	54	74	33	33	88	40
2022-11	Exp	50	67	33	33	67	40
2022-09	Exp	54	78	33	38	78	40
2022-06	Exp	47	40	33	30	80	40
2022-03	Exp	40	24	33	27	55	40
2021-12	Exp	42	42	33	24	62	37
2021-11	Rec	46	44	33	24	81	37
2021-09	Rec	44	35	33	23	76	37
2021-08	Exp	39	37	33	23	48	37
2021-06	Exp	34	30	33	23	25	37
2021-03	Rec	46	55	33	24	73	37
2021-01	Rec	48	53	33	24	84	37
2020-12	Exp	49	51	33	28	85	40
2020-10	Exp	46	42	33	28	73	40
2020-09	Rec	45	31	33	27	83	40
2020-07	Rec	45	26	33	28	85	40
2020-05	Exp	44	26	33	27	84	40
2020-03	Exp	46	26	33	28	95	40
2020-02	Rec	44	24	33	28	80	40
2019-12	Rec	45	30	33	28	75	45
2019-11	Exp	46	30	33	28	80	45
2019-09	Exp	48	43	33	29	82	45
2019-08	Rec	50	47	33	29	88	45
2019-06	Rec	41	21	33	28	61	45
2019-03	Exp	41	14	33	30	64	45
2019-01	Exp	42	23	33	30	61	45

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022