Rankings/Burlington-South Burlington, VT

Burlington-South Burlington, VT

NeutralTier 1CBSA 15540Compare

Risk Rank: #80 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +15

55score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Burlington's housing market shows average risk, ranking 80th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Burlington experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and permits per capita, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp83

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap62

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp54

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+21.2%p71

Days on Market YoY

+15.8%p76

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.1%p63

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+0.9%p33

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+26.6%p83

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.38p62

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p52

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.5%p46

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$2Kp54

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+26.6%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant overbuilding into weak demand. This is the highest-risk metro combination — new supply is delivering into a market that is already struggling to absorb existing inventory.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorRetail Trade 22.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Hyp	58	35	78	52	66	54
2025-11	Hyp	56	77	33	57	69	40
2025-10	Rec	51	75	33	57	41	40
2025-09	Hyp	47	81	33	57	15	40
2025-07	Hyp	48	85	33	57	15	40
2025-06	Ress	40	55	33	52	5	40
2025-04	Ress	44	35	33	52	45	40
2025-03	Hyp	46	48	33	53	44	40
2025-01	Hyp	48	71	33	53	35	40
2024-11	Ress	57	91	33	51	69	40
2024-09	Ress	57	77	33	51	85	40
2024-08	Hyp	52	60	33	51	73	40
2024-07	Ress	50	42	33	51	76	40
2024-05	Ress	61	89	33	55	90	40
2024-02	Rec	50	67	33	48	51	40
2024-01	Hyp	52	66	33	48	70	40
2023-11	Hyp	43	59	33	20	49	40
2023-10	Exp	42	68	33	20	32	40
2023-08	Rec	47	89	33	25	38	40
2023-06	Rec	44	78	33	22	35	40
2023-05	Hyp	48	88	33	22	50	40
2023-04	Rec	48	94	33	22	39	40
2023-03	Ress	50	96	33	23	47	40
2023-01	Ress	48	96	33	23	38	40
2022-12	Rec	54	74	33	33	88	40
2022-11	Exp	50	67	33	33	67	40
2022-09	Exp	54	78	33	38	78	40
2022-06	Exp	47	40	33	30	80	40
2022-03	Exp	40	24	33	27	55	40
2021-12	Exp	42	42	33	24	62	37
2021-11	Rec	46	44	33	24	81	37
2021-09	Rec	44	35	33	23	76	37
2021-08	Exp	39	37	33	23	48	37
2021-06	Exp	34	30	33	23	25	37
2021-03	Rec	46	55	33	24	73	37
2021-01	Rec	48	53	33	24	84	37
2020-12	Exp	49	51	33	28	85	40
2020-10	Exp	46	42	33	28	73	40
2020-09	Rec	45	31	33	27	83	40
2020-07	Rec	45	26	33	28	85	40
2020-05	Exp	44	26	33	27	84	40
2020-03	Exp	46	26	33	28	95	40
2020-02	Rec	44	24	33	28	80	40
2019-12	Rec	45	30	33	28	75	45
2019-11	Exp	46	30	33	28	80	45
2019-09	Exp	48	43	33	29	82	45
2019-08	Rec	50	47	33	29	88	45
2019-06	Rec	41	21	33	28	61	45
2019-03	Exp	41	14	33	30	64	45
2019-01	Exp	42	23	33	30	61	45

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023