Rankings/Burlington, NC

Burlington, NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 15500Compare

Risk Rank: #234 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

41score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Burlington experienced a market correction from late 2024 through mid-2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Burlington's housing market shows average risk, ranking 234th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p94 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p45 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Migration

p37 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +17% YoY with days on market up +25% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+16.7%p66

Days on Market YoY

+24.6%p85

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.5%p90

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum26

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth18

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita94

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability45

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment25

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration37

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.8%	p26
Permit Growth	-20.8%	p18
Permits/1K Pop	11.40	p94
Affordability	0.27	p45
Employment	+0.8%	p25
Net AGI Migration	+$46K	p37

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-20.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+16.7%

Days on Market YoY+24.6%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	46	48	30	44	20	37
2025-10	Exp	50	72	30	44	20	37
2025-09	Hyp	47	58	30	44	19	37
2025-08	Rec	48	42	30	44	39	37
2025-07	Hyp	48	28	30	44	53	37
2025-05	Hyp	42	15	30	39	37	37
2025-04	Ress	40	19	30	39	20	37
2025-02	Ress	53	64	30	54	36	37
2024-11	Ress	48	24	30	40	60	37
2024-10	Hyp	56	51	30	40	83	37
2024-09	Ress	62	90	30	50	69	37
2024-07	Ress	52	76	30	50	26	37
2024-06	Hyp	50	52	30	47	35	37
2024-05	Ress	45	41	30	47	21	37
2024-03	Ress	55	87	30	53	26	37
2024-02	Hyp	56	92	30	53	28	37
2024-01	Rec	52	94	30	53	2	37
2023-12	Hyp	40	45	30	32	1	37
2023-11	Ress	39	35	30	32	4	37
2023-09	Ress	40	42	30	35	1	37
2023-08	Hyp	42	48	30	35	3	37
2023-06	Hyp	49	86	30	38	6	37
2023-03	Ress	46	77	30	33	6	37
2023-01	Ress	54	87	30	33	40	37
2022-10	Hyp	65	99	30	49	81	37
2022-08	Ress	63	91	30	44	78	37
2022-06	Ress	63	90	30	40	87	37
2022-05	Exp	65	90	30	40	97	37
2022-03	Rec	61	82	30	34	88	37
2022-01	Rec	60	78	30	34	84	37
2021-12	Exp	56	76	30	23	73	41
2021-10	Exp	52	79	30	23	45	41
2021-07	Exp	49	81	30	22	22	41
2021-04	Rec	46	69	30	18	22	41
2021-02	Rec	47	72	30	19	26	41
2020-12	Exp	42	41	30	10	34	41
2020-10	Exp	40	32	30	10	34	41
2020-09	Rec	40	22	30	10	40	41
2020-07	Rec	44	28	30	10	56	41
2020-04	Exp	51	79	30	10	48	41
2020-02	Exp	50	80	30	10	45	41
2019-12	Rec	41	73	30	10	6	32
2019-10	Rec	36	35	30	10	12	32
2019-09	Exp	39	62	30	10	6	32
2019-07	Exp	44	95	30	10	1	32
2019-04	Exp	39	31	30	8	36	32
2019-01	Exp	44	68	30	8	31	32

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022