Rankings/Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 15380Compare

Risk Rank: #106 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -7

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Buffalo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 106th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Buffalo experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up -3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp96

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp72

YoY permit change

Employmentp66

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up -3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+27.7%p78

Days on Market YoY

-3.3%p40

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.7%p91

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.5%p19

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+15.0%p72

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.17p8

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p55

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.1%p66

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$251Kp96

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+15.0%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Heavy building into softening demand. The construction pipeline may outrun absorption — watch for inventory acceleration in coming months.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorGovernment 15.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Hyp	52	32	58	55	63	96
2025-12	Rec	50	90	29	56	26	96
2025-10	Rec	58	87	60	58	44	91
2025-08	Exp	54	89	60	58	21	91
2025-06	Exp	60	86	60	56	59	91
2025-05	Rec	58	87	60	56	48	91
2025-03	Rec	54	72	60	49	49	91
2025-02	Ress	55	76	60	49	47	91
2025-01	Exp	52	81	60	48	25	91
2024-12	Hyp	61	91	60	51	66	91
2024-11	Exp	60	88	60	51	67	91
2024-09	Exp	62	85	60	51	80	91
2024-08	Hyp	61	79	60	51	78	91
2024-07	Exp	58	68	60	51	75	91
2024-05	Exp	56	69	60	48	63	91
2024-02	Rec	55	62	60	42	68	91
2023-12	Rec	57	72	60	43	68	91
2023-11	Exp	56	70	60	43	65	91
2023-09	Exp	54	79	60	44	46	91
2023-08	Rec	55	72	60	44	58	91
2023-06	Rec	53	54	60	40	69	91
2023-03	Rec	55	54	60	38	82	91
2023-02	Ress	54	52	60	38	77	91
2023-01	Hyp	51	50	60	38	62	91
2022-11	Hyp	52	45	60	31	78	91
2022-10	Rec	49	42	60	31	65	91
2022-08	Rec	51	45	60	34	69	91
2022-07	Exp	51	42	60	34	71	91
2022-05	Exp	46	24	60	30	63	91
2022-03	Rec	46	37	60	31	48	91
2022-01	Rec	43	30	60	31	38	91
2021-11	Exp	51	42	61	38	66	92
2021-09	Exp	55	59	61	40	73	92
2021-06	Exp	42	48	61	36	9	92
2021-03	Exp	60	76	61	38	89	92
2020-12	Exp	63	89	61	35	93	92
2020-11	Rec	61	86	61	35	88	92
2020-09	Rec	59	72	61	33	88	92
2020-06	Rec	58	61	61	32	96	92
2020-03	Rec	57	62	61	30	89	92
2019-12	Exp	61	88	61	32	87	91
2019-10	Exp	60	76	61	32	92	91
2019-09	Rec	60	78	61	33	89	91
2019-07	Rec	57	61	61	33	91	91
2019-04	Rec	53	63	61	30	67	91
2019-03	Exp	50	47	61	28	65	91
2019-01	Exp	52	53	61	28	71	91

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023