Rankings/Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 15380Compare

Risk Rank: #140 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -11

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Buffalo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 140th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Buffalo experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump91

12-month HPI change

Migrationp91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp57

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+2.8%p52

Days on Market YoY

+4.9%p58

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.6%p25

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Market Pricing

Typical Home Value$290,979+4.4%

Typical Rent$1,357/mo+2.8%

Gross Rental Yield5.6%

Price Cuts18.7% of listings

Sale-to-List102.1%-0.6pp YoY

Price Tiers YoYBottom +4.7% · Top +4.5%

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.5%p91

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-13.8%p29

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.05p5

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p57

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p25

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$259Kp91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-13.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorGovernment 15.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	56	92	60	58	30	91
2025-09	Rec	57	88	60	58	37	91
2025-08	Exp	54	89	60	58	21	91
2025-06	Exp	60	86	60	56	59	91
2025-05	Rec	58	87	60	56	48	91
2025-03	Rec	54	72	60	49	49	91
2025-02	Ress	55	76	60	49	47	91
2025-01	Exp	52	81	60	48	25	91
2024-12	Hyp	61	91	60	51	66	91
2024-11	Exp	60	88	60	51	67	91
2024-09	Exp	62	85	60	51	80	91
2024-08	Hyp	61	79	60	51	78	91
2024-07	Exp	58	68	60	51	75	91
2024-05	Exp	56	69	60	48	63	91
2024-02	Rec	55	62	60	42	68	91
2023-12	Rec	57	72	60	43	68	91
2023-11	Exp	56	70	60	43	65	91
2023-09	Exp	54	79	60	44	46	91
2023-08	Rec	55	72	60	44	58	91
2023-06	Rec	53	54	60	40	69	91
2023-03	Rec	55	54	60	38	82	91
2023-02	Ress	54	52	60	38	77	91
2023-01	Hyp	51	50	60	38	62	91
2022-11	Hyp	52	45	60	31	78	91
2022-10	Rec	49	42	60	31	65	91
2022-08	Rec	51	45	60	34	69	91
2022-07	Exp	51	42	60	34	71	91
2022-05	Exp	46	24	60	30	63	91
2022-03	Rec	46	37	60	31	48	91
2022-01	Rec	43	30	60	31	38	91
2021-11	Exp	51	42	61	38	66	92
2021-09	Exp	55	59	61	40	73	92
2021-06	Exp	42	48	61	36	9	92
2021-03	Exp	60	76	61	38	89	92
2020-12	Exp	63	89	61	35	93	92
2020-11	Rec	61	86	61	35	88	92
2020-09	Rec	59	72	61	33	88	92
2020-06	Rec	58	61	61	32	96	92
2020-03	Rec	57	62	61	30	89	92
2019-12	Exp	61	88	61	32	87	91
2019-10	Exp	60	76	61	32	92	91
2019-09	Rec	60	78	61	33	89	91
2019-07	Rec	57	61	61	33	91	91
2019-04	Rec	53	63	61	30	67	91
2019-03	Exp	50	47	61	28	65	91
2019-01	Exp	52	53	61	28	71	91

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022