Rankings/Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 15380Compare

Risk Rank: #137 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -11

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Buffalo experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Buffalo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 137th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and migration. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p92 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p91 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p59 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+2.8%p52

Days on Market YoY

+4.9%p58

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.8%p25

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum92

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth29

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita5

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability59

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment25

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.8%	p92
Permit Growth	-13.8%	p29
Permits/1K Pop	1.05	p5
Affordability	0.28	p59
Employment	+0.8%	p25
Net AGI Migration	-$259K	p91

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-13.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+2.8%

Days on Market YoY+4.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 10 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	56	92	60	58	30	91
2025-09	Rec	57	88	60	58	37	91
2025-08	Exp	54	89	60	58	21	91
2025-06	Exp	60	86	60	56	59	91
2025-05	Rec	58	87	60	56	48	91
2025-03	Rec	54	72	60	49	49	91
2025-02	Ress	55	76	60	49	47	91
2025-01	Exp	52	81	60	48	25	91
2024-12	Hyp	61	91	60	51	66	91
2024-11	Exp	60	88	60	51	67	91
2024-09	Exp	62	85	60	51	80	91
2024-08	Hyp	61	79	60	51	78	91
2024-07	Exp	58	68	60	51	75	91
2024-05	Exp	56	69	60	48	63	91
2024-02	Rec	55	62	60	42	68	91
2023-12	Rec	57	72	60	43	68	91
2023-11	Exp	56	70	60	43	65	91
2023-09	Exp	54	79	60	44	46	91
2023-08	Rec	55	72	60	44	58	91
2023-06	Rec	53	54	60	40	69	91
2023-03	Rec	55	54	60	38	82	91
2023-02	Ress	54	52	60	38	77	91
2023-01	Hyp	51	50	60	38	62	91
2022-11	Hyp	52	45	60	31	78	91
2022-10	Rec	49	42	60	31	65	91
2022-08	Rec	51	45	60	34	69	91
2022-07	Exp	51	42	60	34	71	91
2022-05	Exp	46	24	60	30	63	91
2022-03	Rec	46	37	60	31	48	91
2022-01	Rec	43	30	60	31	38	91
2021-11	Exp	51	42	61	38	66	92
2021-09	Exp	55	59	61	40	73	92
2021-06	Exp	42	48	61	36	9	92
2021-03	Exp	60	76	61	38	89	92
2020-12	Exp	63	89	61	35	93	92
2020-11	Rec	61	86	61	35	88	92
2020-09	Rec	59	72	61	33	88	92
2020-06	Rec	58	61	61	32	96	92
2020-03	Rec	57	62	61	30	89	92
2019-12	Exp	61	88	61	32	87	91
2019-10	Exp	60	76	61	32	92	91
2019-09	Rec	60	78	61	33	89	91
2019-07	Rec	57	61	61	33	91	91
2019-04	Rec	53	63	61	30	67	91
2019-03	Exp	50	47	61	28	65	91
2019-01	Exp	52	53	61	28	71	91

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022