Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
Executive Summary
Brownsville's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 10th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (-11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.
Brownsville experienced a market correction from late 2023 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.
Inventory is declining (-11% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.
Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.
Cycle Phase
Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by affordability and employment, while price momentum provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is declining (-11% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
SurgeRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.
Employment Concentration
Employment
ConcentratedInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 62 |
| 2025-12 | 51 |
| 2025-11 | 56 |
| 2025-09 | 56 |
| 2025-06 | 50 |
| 2025-05 | 54 |
| 2025-03 | 62 |
| 2024-12 | 56 |
| 2024-09 | 64 |
| 2024-06 | 67 |
| 2024-04 | 67 |
| 2024-01 | 70 |
| 2023-11 | 66 |
| 2023-09 | 68 |
| 2023-06 | 62 |
| 2023-03 | 68 |
| 2023-02 | 67 |
| 2022-12 | 55 |
| 2022-09 | 68 |
| 2022-06 | 71 |
| 2022-05 | 67 |
| 2022-04 | 67 |
| 2022-02 | 67 |
| 2021-11 | 61 |
| 2021-08 | 52 |
| 2021-05 | 59 |
| 2021-03 | 56 |
| 2020-12 | 49 |
| 2020-09 | 64 |
| 2020-06 | 62 |
| 2020-03 | 64 |
| 2020-02 | 62 |
| 2019-12 | 63 |
| 2019-09 | 64 |
| 2019-07 | 70 |
| 2019-06 | 65 |
| 2019-04 | 58 |
| 2019-03 | 70 |
| 2019-01 | 69 |