Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
Cycle Phase
Brownsville experienced a market correction from late 2023 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.
Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals
Brownsville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 120th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.
Executive Summary
Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and migration. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.
Top Risk Drivers (This Month)
Market Signals
Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
Factor Breakdown
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Underlying Values
| Metric | Value | Pctile |
|---|---|---|
| Price Momentum | +1.0% | p27 |
| Permit Growth | +3.6% | p59 |
| Permits/1K Pop | 5.18 | p62 |
| Affordability | 0.34 | p88 |
| Employment | +1.6% | p7 |
| Net AGI Migration | -$20K | p70 |
National ContextDoes not affect score
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local SignalsDoes not affect score
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
NormalRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.
Liquidity
Liquidity
Internal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 56 |
| 2025-09 | 56 |
| 2025-06 | 50 |
| 2025-05 | 54 |
| 2025-03 | 62 |
| 2024-12 | 56 |
| 2024-09 | 64 |
| 2024-06 | 67 |
| 2024-04 | 67 |
| 2024-01 | 70 |
| 2023-11 | 66 |
| 2023-09 | 68 |
| 2023-06 | 62 |
| 2023-03 | 68 |
| 2023-02 | 67 |
| 2022-12 | 55 |
| 2022-09 | 68 |
| 2022-06 | 71 |
| 2022-05 | 67 |
| 2022-04 | 67 |
| 2022-02 | 67 |
| 2021-11 | 61 |
| 2021-08 | 52 |
| 2021-05 | 59 |
| 2021-03 | 56 |
| 2020-12 | 49 |
| 2020-09 | 64 |
| 2020-06 | 62 |
| 2020-03 | 64 |
| 2020-02 | 62 |
| 2019-12 | 63 |
| 2019-09 | 64 |
| 2019-07 | 70 |
| 2019-06 | 65 |
| 2019-04 | 58 |
| 2019-03 | 70 |
| 2019-01 | 69 |