Rankings/Bowling Green, KY

Bowling Green, KY

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 14540Compare

Risk Rank: #9 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +14

68score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Bowling Green's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 9th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Bowling Green experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and price momentum, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap84

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump82

12-month HPI change

Employmentp75

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+9.9%p59

Days on Market YoY

-2.5%p43

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.4%p29

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.8%p82

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+6.4%p65

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.87p84

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p57

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.2%p75

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$12Kp46

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

+6.4%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorManufacturing 33.7%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	70	56	91	52	73	53
2025-09	Rec	70	55	91	52	74	53
2025-08	Hyp	69	49	91	52	76	53
2025-06	Ress	74	80	91	59	71	53
2025-04	Ress	64	73	91	59	18	53
2025-03	Hyp	58	39	91	52	23	53
2025-01	Rec	56	38	91	52	12	53
2024-11	Hyp	57	39	91	49	17	53
2024-09	Hyp	61	62	91	53	13	53
2024-06	Hyp	56	38	91	52	8	53
2024-04	Ress	64	24	91	52	68	53
2024-02	Ress	63	31	91	54	54	53
2023-12	Hyp	55	7	91	56	30	53
2023-11	Ress	53	6	91	56	21	53
2023-09	Ress	56	29	91	58	11	53
2023-08	Hyp	60	52	91	58	10	53
2023-06	Hyp	67	94	91	60	12	53
2023-04	Ress	65	91	91	60	3	53
2023-02	Ress	65	91	91	62	1	53
2022-11	Hyp	68	94	91	61	13	53
2022-10	Rec	67	90	91	61	12	53
2022-08	Rec	60	54	91	47	22	53
2022-07	Hyp	64	63	91	47	38	53
2022-06	Exp	63	64	91	47	32	53
2022-04	Exp	64	59	91	47	43	53
2022-03	Rec	70	56	91	48	82	53
2022-01	Rec	69	52	91	48	79	53
2021-11	Exp	65	58	91	44	56	49
2021-09	Exp	61	26	91	39	66	49
2021-06	Exp	51	18	91	40	16	49
2021-05	Rec	49	17	91	40	4	49
2021-03	Rec	54	16	91	42	30	49
2021-02	Exp	57	16	91	42	53	49
2020-12	Exp	57	15	91	53	43	47
2020-11	Rec	60	14	91	53	62	47
2020-09	Rec	60	12	91	55	63	47
2020-06	Rec	62	9	91	55	76	47
2020-03	Rec	65	11	91	56	92	47
2019-12	Rec	63	18	91	58	78	41
2019-09	Rec	65	36	91	60	70	41
2019-07	Hyp	67	48	91	60	71	41
2019-05	Ress	65	31	91	59	75	41
2019-03	Ress	61	30	91	59	52	41
2019-02	Hyp	62	35	91	59	55	41
2019-01	Rec	60	40	91	59	37	41

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023