Rankings/Boulder, CO

Boulder, CO

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 14500Compare

Risk Rank: #239 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -14

36score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Boulder's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 239th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Boulder experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp74

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap62

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp38

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

-2.9%p45

Days on Market YoY

-1.6%p44

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.2%p88

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.8%p4

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-22.1%p12

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.16p62

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.28p38

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.3%p74

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$67Kp26

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-22.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorProfessional & Technical 17.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	52	34	86	47	42	26
2025-12	Exp	46	11	78	49	44	26
2025-11	Rec	47	6	49	46	54	67
2025-09	Rec	43	6	49	46	29	67
2025-07	Hyp	53	6	49	46	92	67
2025-05	Hyp	58	35	49	55	81	67
2025-03	Ress	60	42	49	57	88	67
2025-01	Ress	57	24	49	57	86	67
2024-12	Rec	56	10	49	55	93	67
2024-11	Hyp	56	8	49	55	96	67
2024-09	Ress	58	11	49	60	98	67
2024-07	Ress	57	16	49	60	89	67
2024-04	Ress	54	4	49	56	91	67
2024-02	Rec	57	26	49	61	81	67
2024-01	Ress	55	35	49	61	59	67
2023-11	Hyp	54	21	49	64	65	67
2023-09	Rec	48	8	49	63	41	67
2023-07	Rec	53	13	49	63	67	67
2023-06	Hyp	56	14	49	70	77	67
2023-04	Hyp	54	10	49	69	71	67
2023-02	Ress	50	6	49	65	54	67
2022-12	Ress	55	30	49	63	61	67
2022-09	Hyp	58	53	49	63	58	67
2022-08	Ress	57	46	49	63	57	67
2022-06	Ress	60	77	49	73	37	67
2022-04	Exp	58	75	49	73	22	67
2022-02	Rec	54	68	49	67	17	67
2021-12	Rec	43	55	49	61	7	28
2021-09	Exp	47	61	49	63	22	28
2021-07	Exp	44	58	49	63	7	28
2021-05	Rec	56	46	49	64	92	28
2021-03	Rec	46	11	49	60	69	28
2020-12	Rec	45	13	49	55	76	20
2020-09	Rec	44	7	49	57	70	20
2020-07	Exp	43	7	49	57	68	20
2020-05	Exp	36	4	49	57	29	20
2020-04	Rec	37	3	49	57	36	20
2020-02	Rec	36	6	49	60	24	20
2019-11	Rec	34	7	49	61	18	13
2019-10	Hyp	34	8	49	61	17	13
2019-09	Rec	32	7	49	61	6	13
2019-07	Hyp	35	11	49	61	19	13
2019-05	Hyp	36	29	49	62	5	13
2019-03	Ress	42	51	49	63	17	13
2019-01	Ress	44	63	49	63	19	13

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023