Rankings/Boulder, CO

Boulder, CO

NeutralTier 1CBSA 14500Compare

Risk Rank: #120 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Boulder experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Boulder's housing market shows average risk, ranking 120th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and migration. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p78 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Migration

p68 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p66 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +5% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+14.3%p64

Days on Market YoY

+4.9%p58

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p74

Months in status38

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum6

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth78

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita66

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability47

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment44

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration68

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-1.5%	p6
Permit Growth	+16.4%	p78
Permits/1K Pop	5.56	p66
Affordability	0.27	p47
Employment	+0.4%	p44
Net AGI Migration	-$17K	p68

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+16.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+14.3%

Days on Market YoY+4.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	47	6	49	46	54	67
2025-09	Rec	43	6	49	46	29	67
2025-07	Hyp	53	6	49	46	92	67
2025-05	Hyp	58	35	49	55	81	67
2025-03	Ress	60	42	49	57	88	67
2025-01	Ress	57	24	49	57	86	67
2024-12	Rec	56	10	49	55	93	67
2024-11	Hyp	56	8	49	55	96	67
2024-09	Ress	58	11	49	60	98	67
2024-07	Ress	57	16	49	60	89	67
2024-04	Ress	54	4	49	56	91	67
2024-02	Rec	57	26	49	61	81	67
2024-01	Ress	55	35	49	61	59	67
2023-11	Hyp	54	21	49	64	65	67
2023-09	Rec	48	8	49	63	41	67
2023-07	Rec	53	13	49	63	67	67
2023-06	Hyp	56	14	49	70	77	67
2023-04	Hyp	54	10	49	69	71	67
2023-02	Ress	50	6	49	65	54	67
2022-12	Ress	55	30	49	63	61	67
2022-09	Hyp	58	53	49	63	58	67
2022-08	Ress	57	46	49	63	57	67
2022-06	Ress	60	77	49	73	37	67
2022-04	Exp	58	75	49	73	22	67
2022-02	Rec	54	68	49	67	17	67
2021-12	Rec	43	55	49	61	7	28
2021-09	Exp	47	61	49	63	22	28
2021-07	Exp	44	58	49	63	7	28
2021-05	Rec	56	46	49	64	92	28
2021-03	Rec	46	11	49	60	69	28
2020-12	Rec	45	13	49	55	76	20
2020-09	Rec	44	7	49	57	70	20
2020-07	Exp	43	7	49	57	68	20
2020-05	Exp	36	4	49	57	29	20
2020-04	Rec	37	3	49	57	36	20
2020-02	Rec	36	6	49	60	24	20
2019-11	Rec	34	7	49	61	18	13
2019-10	Hyp	34	8	49	61	17	13
2019-09	Rec	32	7	49	61	6	13
2019-07	Hyp	35	11	49	61	19	13
2019-05	Hyp	36	29	49	62	5	13
2019-03	Ress	42	51	49	63	17	13
2019-01	Ress	44	63	49	63	19	13

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022