Rankings/Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 14460Compare

Risk Rank: #140 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -7

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Boston's housing market shows average risk, ranking 140th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Boston experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp98

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp72

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump66

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+25.4%p75

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.8%p37

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.0%p66

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-16.7%p22

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.88p19

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.24p24

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.2%p72

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$4Mp98

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-16.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 17.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Boston's 7 counties show moderate divergence — Rockingham County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Essex County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.4

7 of 7 counties scored

Boston, MA-NH shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Rockingham County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Essex County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Rockingham CountyRisk Driver	71	Elevated	6.4%	100	83	17
Strafford County<5%	67	Elevated	2.7%	67	100	0
Suffolk County	62	Elevated	15.8%	83	0	100
Plymouth County	46	Average	10.8%	50	50	33
Norfolk County	42	Below Average	14.7%	33	67	50
Middlesex County	37	Below Average	33.1%	0	33	83
Essex CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	16.4%	17	17	67

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	58	70	53	22	84	98
2025-10	Rec	58	72	53	22	80	98
2025-09	Hyp	58	69	53	22	83	98
2025-07	Rec	57	70	53	22	75	98
2025-06	Ress	59	73	53	23	84	98
2025-04	Hyp	58	70	53	23	82	98
2025-02	Exp	58	65	53	21	87	98
2025-01	Rec	58	66	53	21	86	98
2024-11	Rec	57	60	53	21	85	98
2024-10	Hyp	56	60	53	21	82	98
2024-08	Hyp	60	73	53	21	88	98
2024-05	Exp	59	75	53	21	85	98
2024-03	Exp	57	72	53	21	75	98
2023-12	Exp	57	77	53	22	67	98
2023-09	Exp	56	67	53	22	74	98
2023-08	Rec	56	62	53	22	74	98
2023-06	Rec	55	57	53	21	77	98
2023-03	Hyp	50	38	53	21	65	98
2023-02	Ress	50	37	53	21	67	98
2022-12	Ress	50	33	53	23	65	98
2022-11	Hyp	49	30	53	23	65	98
2022-10	Rec	49	30	53	23	67	98
2022-08	Exp	48	33	53	24	58	98
2022-06	Exp	46	31	53	24	48	98
2022-03	Exp	44	29	53	24	37	98
2022-01	Rec	44	31	53	24	36	98
2021-11	Rec	44	35	53	20	35	98
2021-09	Exp	45	44	53	21	32	98
2021-07	Exp	43	44	53	21	16	98
2021-04	Exp	45	44	53	21	31	98
2021-03	Rec	54	43	53	22	86	98
2021-01	Rec	54	44	53	22	85	98
2020-12	Exp	53	42	53	20	84	98
2020-10	Exp	54	44	53	20	89	98
2020-08	Rec	55	47	53	20	89	98
2020-06	Rec	56	46	53	20	94	98
2020-04	Exp	53	45	53	20	81	98
2020-02	Exp	46	45	53	21	37	98
2020-01	Rec	46	44	53	21	38	98
2019-11	Rec	46	38	53	21	39	98
2019-08	Rec	45	39	53	20	34	98
2019-05	Rec	46	41	53	20	42	98
2019-04	Hyp	47	40	53	20	45	98
2019-02	Hyp	49	51	53	21	49	98
2019-01	Hyp	50	50	53	21	52	98

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023