Rankings/Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 14460Compare

Risk Rank: #137 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -7

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Boston experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Boston's housing market shows average risk, ranking 137th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p98 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p72 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p65 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+25.4%p75

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.2%p45

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum65

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth22

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita19

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability24

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment72

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration98

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.4%	p65
Permit Growth	-16.7%	p22
Permits/1K Pop	1.88	p19
Affordability	0.24	p24
Employment	-0.2%	p72
Net AGI Migration	-$4M	p98

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-16.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+25.4%

Days on Market YoY+0.0%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Boston's 7 counties show moderate divergence — Rockingham County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Essex County anchors the lower end.

Moderate11.1

7 of 7 counties scored

Boston, MA-NH shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Rockingham County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Essex County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Rockingham CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	14.3%	100	83	17
Suffolk County	61	Elevated	14.3%	83	0	100
Strafford County	56	Elevated	14.3%	67	100	0
Norfolk County	50	Average	14.3%	33	67	50
Plymouth County	44	Below Average	14.3%	50	50	33
Middlesex County	39	Below Average	14.3%	0	33	83
Essex CountyStabilizer	34	Below Average	14.3%	17	17	67

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	58	70	53	22	84	98
2025-10	Rec	58	72	53	22	80	98
2025-09	Hyp	58	69	53	22	83	98
2025-07	Rec	57	70	53	22	75	98
2025-06	Ress	59	73	53	23	84	98
2025-04	Hyp	58	70	53	23	82	98
2025-02	Exp	58	65	53	21	87	98
2025-01	Rec	58	66	53	21	86	98
2024-11	Rec	57	60	53	21	85	98
2024-10	Hyp	56	60	53	21	82	98
2024-08	Hyp	60	73	53	21	88	98
2024-05	Exp	59	75	53	21	85	98
2024-03	Exp	57	72	53	21	75	98
2023-12	Exp	57	77	53	22	67	98
2023-09	Exp	56	67	53	22	74	98
2023-08	Rec	56	62	53	22	74	98
2023-06	Rec	55	57	53	21	77	98
2023-03	Hyp	50	38	53	21	65	98
2023-02	Ress	50	37	53	21	67	98
2022-12	Ress	50	33	53	23	65	98
2022-11	Hyp	49	30	53	23	65	98
2022-10	Rec	49	30	53	23	67	98
2022-08	Exp	48	33	53	24	58	98
2022-06	Exp	46	31	53	24	48	98
2022-03	Exp	44	29	53	24	37	98
2022-01	Rec	44	31	53	24	36	98
2021-11	Rec	44	35	53	20	35	98
2021-09	Exp	45	44	53	21	32	98
2021-07	Exp	43	44	53	21	16	98
2021-04	Exp	45	44	53	21	31	98
2021-03	Rec	54	43	53	22	86	98
2021-01	Rec	54	44	53	22	85	98
2020-12	Exp	53	42	53	20	84	98
2020-10	Exp	54	44	53	20	89	98
2020-08	Rec	55	47	53	20	89	98
2020-06	Rec	56	46	53	20	94	98
2020-04	Exp	53	45	53	20	81	98
2020-02	Exp	46	45	53	21	37	98
2020-01	Rec	46	44	53	21	38	98
2019-11	Rec	46	38	53	21	39	98
2019-08	Rec	45	39	53	20	34	98
2019-05	Rec	46	41	53	20	42	98
2019-04	Hyp	47	40	53	20	45	98
2019-02	Hyp	49	51	53	21	49	98
2019-01	Hyp	50	50	53	21	52	98

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022