Rankings/Boise City, ID

Boise City, ID

NeutralTier 1CBSA 14260Compare

Risk Rank: #137 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Boise City experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 3 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Boise City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 137th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p94 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p87 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p62 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+14.1%p64

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.5%p83

Months in status19

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum37

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth62

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita94

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability87

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment17

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration6

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.7%	p37
Permit Growth	+5.5%	p62
Permits/1K Pop	11.47	p94
Affordability	0.33	p87
Employment	+1.1%	p17
Net AGI Migration	+$766K	p6

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

+5.5%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+14.1%

Days on Market YoY+0.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Boise City's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Gem County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Owyhee County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.8

5 of 5 counties scored

Boise City, ID shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Gem County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Owyhee County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Ada County	58	Elevated	20.0%	50	25	100
Boise County	58	Elevated	20.0%	100	50	25
Gem CountyRisk Driver	58	Elevated	20.0%	25	100	50
Canyon County	50	Average	20.0%	0	75	75
Owyhee CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	20.0%	75	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	45	40	32	86	12	6
2025-09	Rec	44	43	32	86	3	6
2025-07	Rec	44	45	32	86	5	6
2025-06	Hyp	41	27	32	85	3	6
2025-04	Rec	40	20	32	85	7	6
2025-03	Hyp	45	48	32	86	4	6
2025-01	Hyp	46	60	32	86	3	6
2024-12	Rec	46	48	32	86	13	6
2024-10	Rec	45	34	32	86	20	6
2024-09	Exp	41	27	32	85	3	6
2024-07	Exp	40	25	32	85	2	6
2024-06	Hyp	43	36	32	86	7	6
2024-05	Exp	44	38	32	86	11	6
2024-03	Exp	42	21	32	84	17	6
2024-02	Rec	44	22	32	84	25	6
2023-12	Rec	43	31	32	88	7	6
2023-11	Exp	43	25	32	88	13	6
2023-09	Exp	46	13	32	89	44	6
2023-08	Rec	45	4	32	89	45	6
2023-06	Rec	43	0	32	90	39	6
2023-04	Hyp	41	0	32	90	27	6
2023-02	Ress	42	0	32	88	37	6
2022-12	Ress	39	0	32	88	14	6
2022-10	Hyp	38	0	32	88	12	6
2022-08	Hyp	41	8	32	91	16	6
2022-07	Ress	41	7	32	91	19	6
2022-05	Ress	51	52	32	94	30	6
2022-04	Hyp	53	61	32	94	32	6
2022-02	Hyp	57	80	32	94	37	6
2021-11	Ress	57	97	31	97	17	5
2021-09	Ress	56	100	31	97	11	5
2021-07	Exp	57	100	31	97	15	5
2021-05	Exp	58	100	31	97	23	5
2021-02	Exp	54	100	31	95	3	5
2020-11	Rec	54	100	31	95	2	4
2020-09	Rec	54	100	31	93	2	4
2020-06	Exp	53	100	31	91	2	4
2020-04	Exp	54	99	31	91	4	4
2020-03	Rec	53	100	31	90	1	4
2020-01	Rec	53	100	31	90	1	4
2019-10	Rec	53	100	31	88	2	5
2019-07	Hyp	53	99	31	88	3	5
2019-05	Ress	53	100	31	86	1	5
2019-03	Ress	52	99	31	83	3	5
2019-02	Exp	52	99	31	83	1	5
2019-01	Exp	52	100	31	83	3	5

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022