Rankings/Boise City, ID

Boise City, ID

NeutralTier 1CBSA 14260Compare

Risk Rank: #106 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +13

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Boise City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 106th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Boise City experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap94

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp88

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump53

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-4.8%p43

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.7%p91

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.8%p53

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-5.6%p44

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

11.11p94

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.34p88

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.5%p32

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$514Kp6

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-5.6%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 21.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	50	32	62	86	18	6
2025-10	Exp	45	43	32	86	10	6
2025-09	Rec	44	43	32	86	3	6
2025-07	Rec	44	45	32	86	5	6
2025-06	Hyp	41	27	32	85	3	6
2025-04	Rec	40	20	32	85	7	6
2025-03	Hyp	45	48	32	86	4	6
2025-01	Hyp	46	60	32	86	3	6
2024-12	Rec	46	48	32	86	13	6
2024-10	Rec	45	34	32	86	20	6
2024-09	Exp	41	27	32	85	3	6
2024-07	Exp	40	25	32	85	2	6
2024-06	Hyp	43	36	32	86	7	6
2024-05	Exp	44	38	32	86	11	6
2024-03	Exp	42	21	32	84	17	6
2024-02	Rec	44	22	32	84	25	6
2023-12	Rec	43	31	32	88	7	6
2023-11	Exp	43	25	32	88	13	6
2023-09	Exp	46	13	32	89	44	6
2023-08	Rec	45	4	32	89	45	6
2023-06	Rec	43	0	32	90	39	6
2023-04	Hyp	41	0	32	90	27	6
2023-02	Ress	42	0	32	88	37	6
2022-12	Ress	39	0	32	88	14	6
2022-10	Hyp	38	0	32	88	12	6
2022-08	Hyp	41	8	32	91	16	6
2022-07	Ress	41	7	32	91	19	6
2022-05	Ress	51	52	32	94	30	6
2022-04	Hyp	53	61	32	94	32	6
2022-02	Hyp	57	80	32	94	37	6
2021-11	Ress	57	97	31	97	17	5
2021-09	Ress	56	100	31	97	11	5
2021-07	Exp	57	100	31	97	15	5
2021-05	Exp	58	100	31	97	23	5
2021-02	Exp	54	100	31	95	3	5
2020-11	Rec	54	100	31	95	2	4
2020-09	Rec	54	100	31	93	2	4
2020-06	Exp	53	100	31	91	2	4
2020-04	Exp	54	99	31	91	4	4
2020-03	Rec	53	100	31	90	1	4
2020-01	Rec	53	100	31	90	1	4
2019-10	Rec	53	100	31	88	2	5
2019-07	Hyp	53	99	31	88	3	5
2019-05	Ress	53	100	31	86	1	5
2019-03	Ress	52	99	31	83	3	5
2019-02	Exp	52	99	31	83	1	5
2019-01	Exp	52	100	31	83	3	5

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023