US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Bloomington, IN

Bloomington, IN

High RiskTier 1CBSA 14020Compare
Risk Rank: #1 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m): +20
82score
Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Bloomington's housing market shows high risk, ranking 1st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Bloomington experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession
1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

2019202020212022202320242025

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permit growth, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp100
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Permit Growthp85
YoY permit change
Migrationp83
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable
Active Listings YoY
+14.1%p64
Days on Market YoY
-6.5%p35
Months in status1
Data through Dec 2025
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumElevated
+4.2%p72

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk
+26.0%p85

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk
7.71p81

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated
0.30p73

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk
-3.2%p100

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk
-$45Kp83

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards
-5.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-74 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+191 bpsElevated
Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.92High
Completion-Permit Divergence
+1.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1
Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal
YoY Permit Growth
+26.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated
Largest SectorGovernment 27.1%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History
MonthScore
2025-1160
2025-0954
2025-0751
2025-0567
2025-0466
2025-0259
2025-0169
2024-1156
2024-0958
2024-0771
2024-0663
2024-0461
2024-0362
2024-0161
2023-1165
2023-0857
2023-0648
2023-0552
2023-0350
2023-0250
2022-1259
2022-1150
2022-0956
2022-0861
2022-0765
2022-0555
2022-0446
2022-0247
2021-1260
2021-0969
2021-0668
2021-0475
2021-0274
2020-1272
2020-1071
2020-0972
2020-0769
2020-0566
2020-0377
2020-0278
2019-1268
2019-0971
2019-0771
2019-0678
2019-0464
2019-0369
2019-0166
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2025-Q4
Permits2026-01
Income2024
Employment2025-12
Migration2023