Rankings/Bloomington, IL

Bloomington, IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 14010Compare

Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— 0

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Bloomington experienced a market correction from late 2023 through late 2023. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Expansion

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Bloomington's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and price momentum. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p89 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p84 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p73 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+26% YoY) and days on market are up -9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+25.7%p75

Days on Market YoY

-8.6%p31

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.6%p40

Months in status18

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum84

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth63

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita11

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability1

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment89

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration73

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.5%	p84
Permit Growth	+5.9%	p63
Permits/1K Pop	1.57	p11
Affordability	0.17	p1
Employment	-0.7%	p89
Net AGI Migration	-$25K	p73

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+25.7%

Days on Market YoY-8.6%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	53	72	65	1	99	72
2025-09	Exp	52	72	65	1	93	72
2025-06	Exp	49	50	65	0	97	72
2025-04	Rec	46	29	65	0	100	72
2025-02	Rec	46	32	65	1	99	72
2025-01	Exp	46	39	65	1	88	72
2024-11	Exp	50	82	65	1	74	72
2024-09	Rec	46	49	65	0	82	72
2024-07	Rec	42	53	65	0	56	72
2024-04	Exp	35	46	65	1	18	72
2024-02	Exp	34	53	65	1	4	72
2024-01	Rec	35	61	65	1	3	72
2023-11	Rec	37	54	65	1	22	72
2023-10	Ress	37	62	65	1	13	72
2023-08	Ress	36	64	65	1	4	72
2023-07	Hyp	36	63	65	1	9	72
2023-05	Hyp	40	83	65	1	10	72
2023-04	Ress	39	79	65	1	10	72
2023-02	Ress	40	88	65	1	8	72
2022-11	Hyp	37	71	65	2	5	72
2022-10	Rec	36	65	65	2	3	72
2022-08	Rec	38	66	65	1	17	72
2022-07	Exp	37	67	65	1	7	72
2022-05	Exp	36	63	65	2	5	72
2022-02	Rec	28	15	65	1	4	72
2021-12	Rec	32	28	66	0	12	74
2021-11	Exp	30	26	66	0	7	74
2021-09	Exp	32	18	66	0	27	74
2021-06	Exp	35	23	66	0	36	74
2021-04	Rec	44	20	66	0	92	74
2021-02	Rec	40	12	66	0	78	74
2020-12	Exp	38	6	66	0	73	76
2020-10	Exp	37	5	66	0	64	76
2020-08	Rec	34	4	66	0	47	76
2020-06	Rec	37	1	66	0	68	76
2020-04	Exp	33	2	66	0	45	76
2020-02	Exp	37	7	66	0	65	76
2020-01	Rec	40	11	66	0	79	76
2019-11	Rec	43	9	66	0	97	78
2019-10	Exp	41	9	66	0	86	78
2019-08	Exp	41	5	66	0	89	78
2019-05	Exp	42	3	66	0	95	78
2019-03	Rec	42	1	66	0	99	78
2019-01	Rec	40	3	66	0	87	78

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022