Rankings/Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA

Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 13980Compare

Risk Rank: #5 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +17

72score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Blacksburg's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 5th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Blacksburg experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+24% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp97

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump94

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp81

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+24% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+24.1%p74

Days on Market YoY

+5.9%p60

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.8%p36

Months in status16

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+6.1%p94

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+0.8%p56

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.69p32

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.32p81

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.4%p97

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$18Kp70

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 64.8%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Blacksburg's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Montgomery County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Giles County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.2

5 of 5 counties scored

Blacksburg, VA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Montgomery County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Giles County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Montgomery CountyRisk Driver	69	Elevated	54.5%	25	75	100
Floyd County	56	Elevated	8.6%	0	100	25
Radford city	50	Average	9.2%	50	25	75
Pulaski County	44	Below Average	18.5%	75	50	50
Giles CountyStabilizer	31	Below Average	9.1%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	67	86	42	79	94	70
2025-10	Rec	65	83	42	79	84	70
2025-08	Rec	58	74	42	79	47	70
2025-07	Hyp	63	69	42	79	83	70
2025-05	Hyp	58	35	42	79	90	70
2025-03	Rec	56	17	42	75	99	70
2025-01	Hyp	58	26	42	75	100	70
2024-11	Hyp	59	36	42	75	96	70
2024-09	Ress	66	76	42	78	100	70
2024-07	Ress	61	88	42	78	55	70
2024-06	Hyp	57	75	42	78	42	70
2024-04	Hyp	50	28	42	78	46	70
2024-03	Rec	50	32	42	77	44	70
2024-01	Hyp	49	57	42	77	13	70
2023-11	Exp	50	79	42	77	1	70
2023-09	Exp	48	65	42	72	10	70
2023-07	Rec	53	36	42	72	65	70
2023-05	Rec	65	93	42	81	72	70
2023-03	Ress	56	83	42	77	33	70
2023-02	Hyp	54	83	42	77	22	70
2023-01	Ress	58	84	42	77	44	70
2022-11	Ress	43	20	42	47	47	70
2022-10	Hyp	43	19	42	47	46	70
2022-09	Rec	52	55	42	54	59	70
2022-07	Rec	50	52	42	54	50	70
2022-06	Hyp	40	38	42	53	2	70
2022-04	Exp	42	33	42	53	22	70
2022-02	Exp	40	14	42	50	35	70
2022-01	Rec	46	15	42	50	66	70
2021-11	Rec	52	19	42	74	70	73
2021-10	Exp	45	20	42	74	30	73
2021-08	Exp	44	18	42	75	23	73
2021-05	Exp	44	23	42	77	16	73
2021-04	Rec	47	24	42	77	33	73
2021-02	Rec	48	30	42	80	33	73
2020-12	Exp	45	32	42	63	31	71
2020-10	Exp	43	29	42	63	23	71
2020-09	Rec	48	30	42	64	53	71
2020-07	Rec	50	40	42	64	52	71
2020-04	Exp	54	58	42	64	61	71
2020-02	Exp	58	62	42	64	76	71
2019-11	Exp	63	88	42	64	90	65
2019-08	Rec	50	73	42	64	27	65
2019-06	Rec	52	38	42	64	70	65
2019-03	Exp	48	36	42	64	53	65
2019-01	Exp	54	41	42	64	82	65

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023