Rankings/Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA

Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 13980Compare

Risk Rank: #1 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +20

78score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Blacksburg's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 1st of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Blacksburg experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024.

Inventory has surged +30% YoY with days on market up +25% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permit growth, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp94

YoY permit change

Affordabilityp83

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +30% YoY with days on market up +25% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+30.1%p80

Days on Market YoY

+25.0%p86

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.7%p85

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.4%p75

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+60.0%p94

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.95p48

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.34p83

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.3%p96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$18Kp70

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 64.8%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Blacksburg's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Pulaski County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Radford city anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.4

5 of 5 counties scored

Blacksburg, VA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Pulaski County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Radford city anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Pulaski CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	18.5%	100	100	50
Floyd County	62	Elevated	8.6%	50	75	25
Montgomery County	62	Elevated	54.5%	25	50	100
Giles County	31	Below Average	9.1%	75	25	0
Radford cityStabilizer	19	Low Risk	9.2%	0	0	75

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	78	86	94	80	93	70
2026-05	Rec	80	90	94	80	99	70
2025-12	Hyp	72	94	56	81	97	70
2025-10	Rec	65	83	42	79	84	70
2025-08	Rec	58	74	42	79	47	70
2025-07	Hyp	63	69	42	79	83	70
2025-05	Hyp	58	35	42	79	90	70
2025-03	Rec	56	17	42	75	99	70
2025-01	Hyp	58	26	42	75	100	70
2024-11	Hyp	59	36	42	75	96	70
2024-09	Ress	66	76	42	78	100	70
2024-07	Ress	61	88	42	78	55	70
2024-06	Hyp	57	75	42	78	42	70
2024-04	Hyp	50	28	42	78	46	70
2024-03	Rec	50	32	42	77	44	70
2024-01	Hyp	49	57	42	77	13	70
2023-11	Exp	50	79	42	77	1	70
2023-09	Exp	48	65	42	72	10	70
2023-07	Rec	53	36	42	72	65	70
2023-05	Rec	65	93	42	81	72	70
2023-03	Ress	56	83	42	77	33	70
2023-02	Hyp	54	83	42	77	22	70
2023-01	Ress	58	84	42	77	44	70
2022-11	Ress	43	20	42	47	47	70
2022-10	Hyp	43	19	42	47	46	70
2022-09	Rec	52	55	42	54	59	70
2022-07	Rec	50	52	42	54	50	70
2022-06	Hyp	40	38	42	53	2	70
2022-04	Exp	42	33	42	53	22	70
2022-02	Exp	40	14	42	50	35	70
2022-01	Rec	46	15	42	50	66	70
2021-11	Rec	52	19	42	74	70	73
2021-10	Exp	45	20	42	74	30	73
2021-08	Exp	44	18	42	75	23	73
2021-05	Exp	44	23	42	77	16	73
2021-04	Rec	47	24	42	77	33	73
2021-02	Rec	48	30	42	80	33	73
2020-12	Exp	45	32	42	63	31	71
2020-10	Exp	43	29	42	63	23	71
2020-09	Rec	48	30	42	64	53	71
2020-07	Rec	50	40	42	64	52	71
2020-04	Exp	54	58	42	64	61	71
2020-02	Exp	58	62	42	64	76	71
2019-11	Exp	63	88	42	64	90	65
2019-08	Rec	50	73	42	64	27	65
2019-06	Rec	52	38	42	64	70	65
2019-03	Exp	48	36	42	64	53	65
2019-01	Exp	54	41	42	64	82	65

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023