Rankings/Birmingham, AL

Birmingham, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 13820Compare

Risk Rank: #116 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -8

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Birmingham's housing market shows average risk, ranking 116th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Birmingham experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp81

YoY permit change

Price Momentump47

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+8.2%p57

Days on Market YoY

+5.9%p60

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.3%p60

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.5%p47

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+23.7%p81

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.73p46

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.25p24

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.6%p25

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$76Kp89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+23.7%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 25.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Birmingham's 7 counties show moderate divergence — Shelby County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Walker County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.6

7 of 7 counties scored

Birmingham, AL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Shelby County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permits per capita), while Walker County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Shelby CountyRisk Driver	87	High Risk	19.4%	83	83	83
Jefferson County	71	Elevated	56.4%	67	50	100
St. Clair County	58	Elevated	8.0%	50	33	67
Chilton County<5%	42	Below Average	3.9%	0	100	17
Blount County	42	Below Average	5.0%	33	67	33
Walker CountyStabilizer	42	Below Average	5.5%	100	17	50
Bibb County<5%	8	Low Risk	1.9%	17	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	53	49	74	24	37	89
2025-10	Exp	46	26	62	21	40	89
2025-07	Rec	55	42	62	21	75	89
2025-05	Rec	60	62	62	24	82	89
2025-04	Hyp	54	54	62	24	59	89
2025-02	Hyp	54	31	62	22	80	89
2025-01	Rec	54	33	62	22	80	89
2024-12	Hyp	56	41	62	24	84	89
2024-10	Hyp	57	49	62	24	78	89
2024-07	Hyp	53	47	62	22	58	89
2024-06	Ress	52	58	62	23	44	89
2024-04	Ress	51	45	62	23	50	89
2024-03	Hyp	53	48	62	25	54	89
2024-01	Hyp	52	38	62	24	61	89
2023-12	Rec	54	38	62	30	63	89
2023-10	Ress	52	46	62	30	48	89
2023-08	Rec	51	31	62	29	53	89
2023-06	Hyp	55	41	62	31	65	89
2023-04	Hyp	54	44	62	31	58	89
2023-01	Ress	57	56	62	35	60	89
2022-11	Ress	57	40	62	29	81	89
2022-08	Hyp	57	51	62	31	70	89
2022-06	Hyp	53	32	62	28	69	89
2022-05	Exp	53	29	62	28	71	89
2022-03	Exp	55	32	62	29	76	89
2021-12	Rec	56	28	62	38	79	91
2021-10	Rec	54	26	62	38	69	91
2021-09	Exp	51	19	62	37	59	91
2021-07	Exp	52	20	62	37	63	91
2021-05	Rec	56	24	62	39	79	91
2021-03	Rec	48	27	62	40	31	91
2021-01	Exp	49	35	62	40	28	91
2020-11	Exp	52	54	62	40	30	90
2020-09	Rec	56	67	62	42	38	90
2020-07	Rec	57	64	62	42	43	90
2020-05	Exp	55	69	62	42	28	90
2020-03	Exp	57	50	62	40	63	90
2020-02	Rec	57	51	62	41	61	90
2019-12	Rec	54	53	62	38	54	76
2019-11	Exp	55	58	62	38	57	76
2019-09	Exp	54	64	62	40	40	76
2019-07	Rec	50	55	62	39	31	76
2019-05	Rec	51	57	62	39	33	76
2019-04	Exp	51	58	62	39	30	76
2019-02	Exp	53	65	62	39	38	76
2019-01	Exp	54	63	62	39	43	76

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023