Rankings/Birmingham, AL

Birmingham, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 13820Compare

Risk Rank: #137 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Birmingham experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 5 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Birmingham's housing market shows average risk, ranking 137th of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 5 months. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permit growth. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p89 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p74 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p47 (below average risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+12.0%p61

Days on Market YoY

+4.3%p57

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p71

Months in status35

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum34

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth74

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita47

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability22

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment36

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.5%	p34
Permit Growth	+12.9%	p74
Permits/1K Pop	3.58	p47
Affordability	0.24	p22
Employment	+0.6%	p36
Net AGI Migration	-$138K	p89

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+12.9%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+12.0%

Days on Market YoY+4.3%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 8 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Birmingham's 7 counties show moderate divergence — St. Clair County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Walker County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.9

7 of 7 counties scored

Birmingham, AL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. St. Clair County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Walker County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
St. Clair CountyRisk Driver	72	Elevated	14.3%	67	83	67
Jefferson County	61	Elevated	14.3%	17	67	100
Bibb County	61	Elevated	14.3%	83	100	0
Blount County	56	Elevated	14.3%	100	17	50
Shelby County	44	Below Average	14.3%	0	50	83
Chilton County	39	Below Average	14.3%	50	33	33
Walker CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	14.3%	33	0	17

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	47	30	62	21	42	89
2025-09	Exp	49	30	62	21	55	89
2025-07	Rec	55	42	62	21	75	89
2025-05	Rec	60	62	62	24	82	89
2025-04	Hyp	54	54	62	24	59	89
2025-02	Hyp	54	31	62	22	80	89
2025-01	Rec	54	33	62	22	80	89
2024-12	Hyp	56	41	62	24	84	89
2024-10	Hyp	57	49	62	24	78	89
2024-07	Hyp	53	47	62	22	58	89
2024-06	Ress	52	58	62	23	44	89
2024-04	Ress	51	45	62	23	50	89
2024-03	Hyp	53	48	62	25	54	89
2024-01	Hyp	52	38	62	24	61	89
2023-12	Rec	54	38	62	30	63	89
2023-10	Ress	52	46	62	30	48	89
2023-08	Rec	51	31	62	29	53	89
2023-06	Hyp	55	41	62	31	65	89
2023-04	Hyp	54	44	62	31	58	89
2023-01	Ress	57	56	62	35	60	89
2022-11	Ress	57	40	62	29	81	89
2022-08	Hyp	57	51	62	31	70	89
2022-06	Hyp	53	32	62	28	69	89
2022-05	Exp	53	29	62	28	71	89
2022-03	Exp	55	32	62	29	76	89
2021-12	Rec	56	28	62	38	79	91
2021-10	Rec	54	26	62	38	69	91
2021-09	Exp	51	19	62	37	59	91
2021-07	Exp	52	20	62	37	63	91
2021-05	Rec	56	24	62	39	79	91
2021-03	Rec	48	27	62	40	31	91
2021-01	Exp	49	35	62	40	28	91
2020-11	Exp	52	54	62	40	30	90
2020-09	Rec	56	67	62	42	38	90
2020-07	Rec	57	64	62	42	43	90
2020-05	Exp	55	69	62	42	28	90
2020-03	Exp	57	50	62	40	63	90
2020-02	Rec	57	51	62	41	61	90
2019-12	Rec	54	53	62	38	54	76
2019-11	Exp	55	58	62	38	57	76
2019-09	Exp	54	64	62	40	40	76
2019-07	Rec	50	55	62	39	31	76
2019-05	Rec	51	57	62	39	33	76
2019-04	Exp	51	58	62	39	30	76
2019-02	Exp	53	65	62	39	38	76
2019-01	Exp	54	63	62	39	43	76

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022