Rankings/Billings, MT

Billings, MT

NeutralTier 1CBSA 13740Compare

Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Billings experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Billings's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p86 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordability

p77 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p65 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-4.4%p44

Days on Market YoY

+10.0%p67

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.8%p86

Months in status41

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum44

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth22

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita65

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability77

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration52

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.1%	p44
Permit Growth	-16.5%	p22
Permits/1K Pop	5.46	p65
Affordability	0.31	p77
Employment	-0.5%	p86
Net AGI Migration	+$9K	p52

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-16.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-4.4%

Days on Market YoY+10.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	66	39	100	76	50	51
2025-09	Rec	65	31	100	76	50	51
2025-08	Hyp	59	26	100	76	19	51
2025-06	Hyp	58	3	100	71	40	51
2025-05	Ress	62	2	100	71	69	51
2025-03	Ress	67	7	100	75	87	51
2025-01	Hyp	64	21	100	75	55	51
2024-12	Ress	62	17	100	78	47	51
2024-10	Ress	65	9	100	77	71	51
2024-09	Hyp	62	14	100	78	47	51
2024-08	Ress	65	21	100	78	60	51
2024-06	Ress	68	34	100	80	64	51
2024-05	Hyp	68	26	100	80	71	51
2024-04	Rec	70	21	100	80	90	51
2024-02	Ress	71	27	100	77	89	51
2024-01	Hyp	74	44	100	77	92	51
2023-11	Hyp	71	34	100	85	76	51
2023-08	Rec	72	25	100	85	88	51
2023-07	Hyp	73	26	100	85	93	51
2023-05	Hyp	74	39	100	87	87	51
2023-02	Hyp	68	30	100	81	67	51
2023-01	Ress	69	36	100	81	64	51
2022-11	Ress	70	75	100	64	52	51
2022-09	Hyp	72	73	100	61	64	51
2022-07	Ress	74	76	100	61	73	51
2022-05	Ress	71	86	100	63	43	51
2022-04	Exp	72	86	100	63	54	51
2022-02	Exp	70	74	100	58	55	51
2022-01	Rec	71	76	100	58	62	51
2021-11	Rec	70	77	100	66	57	40
2021-10	Exp	72	75	100	66	70	40
2021-08	Exp	67	66	100	64	52	40
2021-05	Exp	70	68	100	63	68	40
2021-04	Rec	64	74	100	63	27	40
2021-02	Rec	56	46	100	61	8	40
2020-11	Rec	58	49	100	76	7	37
2020-08	Rec	60	64	100	78	3	37
2020-07	Exp	61	65	100	78	3	37
2020-05	Exp	51	9	100	75	5	37
2020-04	Rec	54	8	100	75	21	37
2020-02	Rec	57	34	100	78	14	37
2020-01	Exp	63	40	100	78	43	37
2019-11	Exp	68	28	100	78	74	48
2019-10	Rec	68	25	100	78	77	48
2019-08	Rec	68	33	100	78	64	48
2019-05	Rec	74	46	100	81	89	48
2019-03	Exp	66	20	100	80	64	48
2019-01	Exp	60	11	100	80	39	48

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022