Bend, OR

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 13460Compare

Risk Rank: #26 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +26

62score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Bend's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 26th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Bend experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap96

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp95

YoY permit change

Affordabilityp89

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+25.3%p75

Days on Market YoY

+5.6%p59

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.4%p96

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.7%p4

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+58.4%p95

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

12.75p96

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.35p89

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.6%p79

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$378Kp8

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+58.4%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Building is elevated but demand is cooling. Early warning of supply-demand imbalance — if liquidity continues to soften, this pipeline could become a problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 17.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Bend's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Crook County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Jefferson County anchors the lower end.

Moderate11.2Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Bend, OR shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Crook County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Jefferson County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Crook CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	10.2%	50	100	50
Deschutes County	50	Average	80.0%	0	50	100
Jefferson CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	9.8%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	54	27	96	90	5	8
2025-10	Rec	39	37	15	90	4	9
2025-08	Hyp	40	31	15	90	16	9
2025-06	Hyp	42	20	15	90	44	9
2025-05	Ress	36	8	15	90	16	9
2025-03	Ress	32	2	15	88	3	9
2025-02	Hyp	33	4	15	88	5	9
2024-12	Hyp	36	11	15	89	16	9
2024-09	Hyp	39	14	15	90	30	9
2024-07	Ress	38	14	15	90	21	9
2024-05	Ress	45	61	15	92	16	9
2024-03	Hyp	42	49	15	91	9	9
2024-02	Exp	42	47	15	91	13	9
2023-12	Exp	37	22	15	90	10	9
2023-09	Exp	35	14	15	91	4	9
2023-08	Rec	35	12	15	91	5	9
2023-06	Rec	34	10	15	91	3	9
2023-05	Hyp	36	13	15	91	8	9
2023-03	Hyp	38	11	15	90	28	9
2023-02	Ress	38	9	15	90	27	9
2022-12	Ress	41	15	15	96	31	9
2022-10	Hyp	47	16	15	96	70	9
2022-08	Hyp	49	43	15	97	52	9
2022-06	Ress	52	55	15	97	56	9
2022-04	Ress	55	71	15	97	61	9
2022-03	Hyp	56	86	15	98	52	9
2022-02	Rec	51	90	15	98	18	9
2021-12	Ress	52	96	15	96	15	8
2021-10	Ress	54	97	15	96	32	8
2021-09	Hyp	54	98	15	97	30	8
2021-08	Exp	54	98	15	97	24	8
2021-06	Exp	51	98	15	95	10	8
2021-05	Rec	50	98	15	95	7	8
2021-03	Rec	53	98	15	94	25	8
2021-02	Exp	57	98	15	94	47	8
2020-12	Exp	57	94	15	96	50	8
2020-11	Rec	54	93	15	96	35	8
2020-09	Rec	48	71	15	95	20	8
2020-06	Rec	54	81	15	96	49	8
2020-05	Exp	57	82	15	96	66	8
2020-03	Exp	45	75	15	95	1	8
2020-01	Rec	44	63	15	95	4	8
2019-11	Rec	46	73	15	96	7	9
2019-10	Exp	46	71	15	96	6	9
2019-08	Exp	47	71	15	95	15	9
2019-06	Rec	44	57	15	95	14	9
2019-04	Rec	46	56	15	95	22	9
2019-03	Exp	51	75	15	95	37	9
2019-01	Exp	48	80	15	95	12	9

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023