Bend, OR

NeutralTier 1CBSA 13460Compare

Risk Rank: #86 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +18

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Bend's housing market shows average risk, ranking 86th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Bend experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp96

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap95

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp90

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+3.4%p52

Days on Market YoY

+13.3%p72

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.0%p87

Months in status18

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.5%p27

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+64.9%p96

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

12.02p95

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.34p90

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+2.0%p5

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$378Kp8

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+64.9%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 17.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Bend's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Crook County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Jefferson County anchors the lower end.

Moderate11.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Bend, OR shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Crook County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Jefferson County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Crook CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	10.2%	100	50	50
Deschutes County	62	Elevated	80.0%	50	0	100
Jefferson CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	9.8%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	39	38	15	90	6	9
2025-09	Rec	39	34	15	90	10	9
2025-08	Hyp	40	31	15	90	16	9
2025-06	Hyp	42	20	15	90	44	9
2025-05	Ress	36	8	15	90	16	9
2025-03	Ress	32	2	15	88	3	9
2025-02	Hyp	33	4	15	88	5	9
2024-12	Hyp	36	11	15	89	16	9
2024-09	Hyp	39	14	15	90	30	9
2024-07	Ress	38	14	15	90	21	9
2024-05	Ress	45	61	15	92	16	9
2024-03	Hyp	42	49	15	91	9	9
2024-02	Exp	42	47	15	91	13	9
2023-12	Exp	37	22	15	90	10	9
2023-09	Exp	35	14	15	91	4	9
2023-08	Rec	35	12	15	91	5	9
2023-06	Rec	34	10	15	91	3	9
2023-05	Hyp	36	13	15	91	8	9
2023-03	Hyp	38	11	15	90	28	9
2023-02	Ress	38	9	15	90	27	9
2022-12	Ress	41	15	15	96	31	9
2022-10	Hyp	47	16	15	96	70	9
2022-08	Hyp	49	43	15	97	52	9
2022-06	Ress	52	55	15	97	56	9
2022-04	Ress	55	71	15	97	61	9
2022-03	Hyp	56	86	15	98	52	9
2022-02	Rec	51	90	15	98	18	9
2021-12	Ress	52	96	15	96	15	8
2021-10	Ress	54	97	15	96	32	8
2021-09	Hyp	54	98	15	97	30	8
2021-08	Exp	54	98	15	97	24	8
2021-06	Exp	51	98	15	95	10	8
2021-05	Rec	50	98	15	95	7	8
2021-03	Rec	53	98	15	94	25	8
2021-02	Exp	57	98	15	94	47	8
2020-12	Exp	57	94	15	96	50	8
2020-11	Rec	54	93	15	96	35	8
2020-09	Rec	48	71	15	95	20	8
2020-06	Rec	54	81	15	96	49	8
2020-05	Exp	57	82	15	96	66	8
2020-03	Exp	45	75	15	95	1	8
2020-01	Rec	44	63	15	95	4	8
2019-11	Rec	46	73	15	96	7	9
2019-10	Exp	46	71	15	96	6	9
2019-08	Exp	47	71	15	95	15	9
2019-06	Rec	44	57	15	95	14	9
2019-04	Rec	46	56	15	95	22	9
2019-03	Exp	51	75	15	95	37	9
2019-01	Exp	48	80	15	95	12	9

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023