US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Bellingham, WA

Bellingham, WA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 13380Compare
Risk Rank: #127 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m): -13
51score
Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Bellingham's housing market shows average risk, ranking 127th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Bellingham experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession
1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

2019202020212022202320242025

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and employment, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp87
Mortgage payment / income
Employmentp86
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Permits per Capitap58
Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable
Active Listings YoY
+7.9%p57
Days on Market YoY
+8.3%p64
Months in status1
Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced
Rent vs. Price Growth
+0.6%p73
Months in status1
Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumBelow Avg
+0.7%p23

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg
-13.4%p29

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral
4.88p58

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk
0.34p87

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk
-0.9%p86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg
+$98Kp22

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards
-3.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-38 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+199 bpsElevated
Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.90Elevated
Completion-Permit Divergence
-5.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2
Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling
YoY Permit Growth
-13.4%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate
Largest SectorGovernment 17.3%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History
MonthScore
2025-1260
2025-1068
2025-0863
2025-0664
2025-0564
2025-0465
2025-0261
2024-1260
2024-1059
2024-0968
2024-0768
2024-0664
2024-0467
2024-0364
2024-0164
2023-1259
2023-1062
2023-0961
2023-0757
2023-0652
2023-0453
2023-0251
2022-1250
2022-1046
2022-0855
2022-0660
2022-0560
2022-0357
2022-0157
2021-1256
2021-1058
2021-0764
2021-0664
2021-0468
2021-0372
2021-0171
2020-1271
2020-1071
2020-0770
2020-0566
2020-0361
2020-0257
2019-1264
2019-1164
2019-1068
2019-0865
2019-0758
2019-0563
2019-0367
2019-0269
2019-0166
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2026-Q1
Permits2026-05
Income2024
Employment2026-05
Migration2023