Rankings/Bellingham, WA

Bellingham, WA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 13380Compare

Risk Rank: #71 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Bellingham experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 4 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Bellingham's housing market shows average risk, ranking 71st of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 4 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p87 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p78 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p62 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +23% YoY with days on market up +23% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+22.6%p72

Days on Market YoY

+23.2%p84

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.4%p59

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum39

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth53

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita62

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability87

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration22

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.9%	p39
Permit Growth	-0.6%	p53
Permits/1K Pop	5.23	p62
Affordability	0.33	p87
Employment	-0.3%	p78
Net AGI Migration	+$153K	p22

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-0.6%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are already retreating and demand is weak. A correction may be underway — the market is contracting on both the supply and demand side.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+22.6%

Days on Market YoY+23.2%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 12 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	64	51	81	87	85	23
2025-09	Hyp	65	45	81	87	96	23
2025-08	Ress	63	29	81	87	97	23
2025-06	Ress	64	47	81	88	87	23
2025-05	Hyp	64	57	81	88	78	23
2025-04	Ress	65	60	81	88	79	23
2025-02	Ress	61	56	81	87	58	23
2024-12	Rec	60	36	81	84	77	23
2024-10	Ress	59	53	81	84	53	23
2024-09	Hyp	68	95	81	87	59	23
2024-07	Hyp	68	90	81	87	65	23
2024-06	Exp	64	75	81	86	56	23
2024-04	Exp	67	69	81	86	81	23
2024-03	Rec	64	57	81	85	80	23
2024-01	Rec	64	45	81	85	90	23
2023-12	Exp	59	27	81	92	72	23
2023-10	Exp	62	38	81	92	81	23
2023-09	Rec	61	26	81	92	84	23
2023-07	Rec	57	10	81	92	75	23
2023-06	Hyp	52	7	81	91	50	23
2023-04	Hyp	53	7	81	91	56	23
2023-02	Ress	51	8	81	92	41	23
2022-12	Ress	50	5	81	83	48	23
2022-10	Hyp	46	8	81	83	18	23
2022-08	Ress	55	48	81	87	32	23
2022-06	Ress	60	73	81	90	35	23
2022-05	Exp	60	74	81	90	32	23
2022-03	Rec	57	80	81	89	10	23
2022-01	Rec	57	82	81	89	7	23
2021-12	Exp	56	78	81	90	7	23
2021-10	Exp	58	79	81	90	18	23
2021-07	Exp	64	83	81	90	44	23
2021-06	Rec	64	84	81	90	45	23
2021-04	Rec	68	87	81	90	68	23
2021-03	Exp	72	84	81	89	95	23
2021-01	Exp	71	79	81	89	93	23
2020-12	Rec	71	82	81	88	91	25
2020-10	Rec	71	79	81	88	92	25
2020-07	Rec	70	82	81	87	85	25
2020-05	Exp	66	65	81	87	81	25
2020-03	Exp	61	69	81	86	45	25
2020-02	Rec	57	68	81	86	20	25
2019-12	Rec	64	71	81	86	64	23
2019-11	Hyp	64	78	81	86	60	23
2019-10	Ress	68	80	81	86	78	23
2019-08	Ress	65	71	81	85	72	23
2019-07	Rec	58	70	81	85	33	23
2019-05	Ress	63	87	81	86	40	23
2019-03	Ress	67	93	81	86	60	23
2019-02	Exp	69	95	81	86	69	23
2019-01	Exp	66	96	81	86	48	23

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022