Rankings/Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX

Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 13140Compare

Risk Rank: #222 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +8

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Beaumont experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Beaumont's housing market shows average risk, ranking 222nd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permit growth. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p81 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p47 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Affordability

p43 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-8% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-8.3%p39

Days on Market YoY

+5.2%p58

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+7.0%p99

Months in status37

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum8

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth47

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita29

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability43

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment43

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration81

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.8%	p8
Permit Growth	-3.3%	p47
Permits/1K Pop	2.40	p29
Affordability	0.27	p43
Employment	+0.4%	p43
Net AGI Migration	-$57K	p81

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-3.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY-8.3%

Days on Market YoY+5.2%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 13 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Beaumont's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Jefferson County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Orange County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Beaumont, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Jefferson County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Orange County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Jefferson CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	0	100	100
Hardin County	50	Average	33.3%	100	50	0
Orange CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	35	10	14	41	40	81
2025-09	Rec	41	21	14	41	63	81
2025-08	Exp	37	24	14	41	37	81
2025-06	Exp	46	65	14	48	40	81
2025-05	Rec	46	77	14	48	29	81
2025-03	Rec	48	87	14	54	24	81
2025-02	Exp	42	58	14	54	18	81
2024-12	Exp	34	33	14	49	0	81
2024-11	Hyp	39	63	14	49	0	81
2024-10	Exp	43	86	14	49	1	81
2024-08	Rec	37	51	14	48	0	81
2024-06	Rec	30	19	14	42	0	81
2024-05	Ress	31	22	14	42	1	81
2024-04	Hyp	32	27	14	42	2	81
2024-03	Exp	44	84	14	57	3	81
2024-01	Exp	40	53	14	57	10	81
2023-10	Exp	35	3	14	44	43	81
2023-09	Rec	35	14	14	47	29	81
2023-07	Rec	36	26	14	47	24	81
2023-06	Hyp	35	22	14	45	23	81
2023-04	Ress	35	24	14	45	20	81
2023-02	Ress	38	33	14	54	18	81
2023-01	Hyp	36	29	14	54	11	81
2022-11	Ress	37	40	14	56	5	81
2022-09	Ress	33	12	14	54	10	81
2022-06	Exp	35	4	14	52	34	81
2022-04	Rec	40	10	14	52	60	81
2022-02	Rec	40	13	14	58	49	81
2022-01	Exp	45	8	14	58	82	81
2021-11	Exp	46	8	14	40	98	89
2021-08	Exp	46	7	14	42	99	89
2021-07	Rec	46	6	14	42	100	89
2021-05	Rec	45	2	14	42	99	89
2021-04	Exp	45	2	14	42	97	89
2021-02	Exp	46	9	14	48	95	89
2020-11	Rec	46	15	14	48	89	85
2020-09	Rec	54	64	14	51	87	85
2020-08	Exp	52	62	14	51	74	85
2020-06	Exp	54	84	14	52	66	85
2020-05	Rec	51	80	14	52	49	85
2020-03	Rec	50	55	14	50	74	85
2019-12	Rec	42	19	14	50	59	83
2019-09	Rec	46	29	14	49	78	83
2019-06	Hyp	52	51	14	51	90	83
2019-04	Ress	52	79	14	51	59	83
2019-02	Ress	48	55	14	52	62	83
2019-01	Ress	48	42	14	52	72	83

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022