Rankings/Baton Rouge, LA

Baton Rouge, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12940Compare

Risk Rank: #116 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -5

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Baton Rouge's housing market shows average risk, ranking 116th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Baton Rouge experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp86

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp82

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap58

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+1.0%p50

Days on Market YoY

+3.1%p54

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.7%p74

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.8%p54

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+25.1%p82

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.99p58

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p29

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.8%p5

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$56Kp86

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+25.1%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Internal Structure

Baton Rouge's 9 counties show moderate divergence — East Baton Rouge Parish carries the most risk (Elevated) while Livingston Parish anchors the lower end.

Moderate8.7Limited data

9 of 10 counties scored

Baton Rouge, LA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. East Baton Rouge Parish contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Livingston Parish anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Iberville Parish<5%	75	Elevated	3.5%	100	100	38
West Feliciana Parish<5%	72	Elevated	1.8%	75	75	88
East Baton Rouge ParishRisk Driver	69	Elevated	52.4%	38	38	100
Ascension Parish	60	Elevated	15.1%	50	50	50
St. Helena ParishUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Livingston ParishStabilizer	47	Average	17.1%	25	12	75
Pointe Coupee Parish<5%	44	Below Average	2.3%	88	0	62
East Feliciana Parish<5%	34	Below Average	2.2%	62	62	12
Assumption Parish<5%	31	Below Average	2.4%	0	88	25
West Baton Rouge Parish<5%	19	Low Risk	3.2%	12	25	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	57	75	84	30	9	86
2025-10	Exp	58	63	70	28	68	69
2025-09	Rec	56	57	70	28	57	69
2025-07	Rec	54	45	70	28	61	69
2025-06	Hyp	52	53	70	30	35	69
2025-05	Ress	57	47	70	30	74	69
2025-03	Ress	45	13	70	27	40	69
2025-02	Hyp	44	13	70	27	29	69
2025-01	Rec	45	16	70	27	33	69
2024-12	Hyp	42	17	70	28	14	69
2024-10	Hyp	45	35	70	28	16	69
2024-08	Ress	44	41	70	30	4	69
2024-06	Ress	42	28	70	31	2	69
2024-05	Hyp	40	16	70	31	1	69
2024-03	Rec	40	8	70	33	7	69
2024-02	Ress	40	9	70	33	6	69
2023-12	Rec	43	2	70	36	26	69
2023-11	Hyp	44	2	70	36	34	69
2023-09	Rec	48	2	70	37	54	69
2023-08	Hyp	52	3	70	37	81	69
2023-06	Hyp	58	31	70	47	78	69
2023-03	Ress	56	21	70	45	79	69
2023-01	Ress	58	18	70	45	93	69
2022-10	Ress	61	31	70	47	95	69
2022-08	Hyp	49	10	70	41	50	69
2022-07	Exp	48	9	70	41	47	69
2022-05	Exp	54	8	70	43	80	69
2022-02	Rec	49	5	70	46	50	69
2021-12	Rec	55	4	70	53	71	79
2021-11	Exp	52	4	70	53	56	79
2021-09	Exp	55	3	70	55	72	79
2021-06	Exp	52	3	70	59	50	79
2021-05	Rec	51	3	70	59	41	79
2021-03	Rec	54	5	70	65	51	79
2021-02	Exp	54	4	70	65	53	79
2020-12	Exp	49	8	70	49	39	78
2020-11	Rec	51	8	70	49	51	78
2020-09	Rec	53	7	70	50	59	78
2020-06	Rec	57	19	70	51	73	78
2020-03	Rec	59	10	70	51	95	78
2019-12	Rec	60	4	70	52	97	82
2019-11	Exp	59	4	70	52	94	82
2019-09	Exp	59	5	70	53	90	82
2019-08	Rec	59	6	70	53	91	82
2019-06	Rec	60	13	70	54	86	82
2019-04	Hyp	55	12	70	54	61	82
2019-02	Hyp	48	12	70	55	18	82
2019-01	Hyp	49	13	70	55	21	82

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023