Rankings/Baton Rouge, LA

Baton Rouge, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12940Compare

Risk Rank: #61 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +15

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Baton Rouge's housing market shows average risk, ranking 61st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Baton Rouge experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-3.0% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp86

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp84

YoY permit change

Price Momentump75

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+4.1%p53

Days on Market YoY

-4.7%p38

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.0%p23

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.3%p75

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+25.3%p84

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.91p59

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.25p30

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.5%p9

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$56Kp86

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+25.3%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Internal Structure

Baton Rouge's 9 counties show moderate divergence — East Baton Rouge Parish carries the most risk (High Risk) while Livingston Parish anchors the lower end.

Moderate10.8Limited data

9 of 10 counties scored

Baton Rouge, LA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. East Baton Rouge Parish contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Livingston Parish anchors the lower end (Elevated).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
East Baton Rouge ParishRisk Driver	84	High Risk	52.4%	38	100	100
Ascension Parish	66	Elevated	15.1%	88	38	62
Pointe Coupee Parish<5%	60	Elevated	2.3%	50	88	50
Livingston ParishStabilizer	59	Elevated	17.1%	62	12	75
St. Helena ParishUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Iberville Parish<5%	47	Average	3.5%	100	50	12
West Feliciana Parish<5%	47	Average	1.8%	0	62	88
West Baton Rouge Parish<5%	40	Below Average	3.2%	75	25	0
Assumption Parish<5%	34	Below Average	2.4%	12	75	38
East Feliciana Parish<5%	12	Low Risk	2.2%	25	0	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	57	64	70	28	59	69
2025-09	Rec	56	57	70	28	57	69
2025-07	Rec	54	45	70	28	61	69
2025-06	Hyp	52	53	70	30	35	69
2025-05	Ress	57	47	70	30	74	69
2025-03	Ress	45	13	70	27	40	69
2025-02	Hyp	44	13	70	27	29	69
2025-01	Rec	45	16	70	27	33	69
2024-12	Hyp	42	17	70	28	14	69
2024-10	Hyp	45	35	70	28	16	69
2024-08	Ress	44	41	70	30	4	69
2024-06	Ress	42	28	70	31	2	69
2024-05	Hyp	40	16	70	31	1	69
2024-03	Rec	40	8	70	33	7	69
2024-02	Ress	40	9	70	33	6	69
2023-12	Rec	43	2	70	36	26	69
2023-11	Hyp	44	2	70	36	34	69
2023-09	Rec	48	2	70	37	54	69
2023-08	Hyp	52	3	70	37	81	69
2023-06	Hyp	58	31	70	47	78	69
2023-03	Ress	56	21	70	45	79	69
2023-01	Ress	58	18	70	45	93	69
2022-10	Ress	61	31	70	47	95	69
2022-08	Hyp	49	10	70	41	50	69
2022-07	Exp	48	9	70	41	47	69
2022-05	Exp	54	8	70	43	80	69
2022-02	Rec	49	5	70	46	50	69
2021-12	Rec	55	4	70	53	71	79
2021-11	Exp	52	4	70	53	56	79
2021-09	Exp	55	3	70	55	72	79
2021-06	Exp	52	3	70	59	50	79
2021-05	Rec	51	3	70	59	41	79
2021-03	Rec	54	5	70	65	51	79
2021-02	Exp	54	4	70	65	53	79
2020-12	Exp	49	8	70	49	39	78
2020-11	Rec	51	8	70	49	51	78
2020-09	Rec	53	7	70	50	59	78
2020-06	Rec	57	19	70	51	73	78
2020-03	Rec	59	10	70	51	95	78
2019-12	Rec	60	4	70	52	97	82
2019-11	Exp	59	4	70	52	94	82
2019-09	Exp	59	5	70	53	90	82
2019-08	Rec	59	6	70	53	91	82
2019-06	Rec	60	13	70	54	86	82
2019-04	Hyp	55	12	70	54	61	82
2019-02	Hyp	48	12	70	55	18	82
2019-01	Hyp	49	13	70	55	21	82

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023