Rankings/Baton Rouge, LA

Baton Rouge, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12940Compare

Risk Rank: #199 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -15

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Baton Rouge's housing market shows average risk, ranking 199th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Baton Rouge experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp86

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap54

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp46

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+1.0%p49

Days on Market YoY

-4.0%p39

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.8%p76

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.1%p45

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-1.9%p46

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.46p54

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p28

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+3.2%p0

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$56Kp86

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-1.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Internal Structure

Baton Rouge's 9 counties show moderate divergence — East Baton Rouge Parish carries the most risk (Elevated) while Livingston Parish anchors the lower end.

Moderate8.7Limited data

9 of 10 counties scored

Baton Rouge, LA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. East Baton Rouge Parish contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Livingston Parish anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Iberville Parish<5%	75	Elevated	3.5%	100	100	38
West Feliciana Parish<5%	72	Elevated	1.8%	75	75	88
East Baton Rouge ParishRisk Driver	69	Elevated	52.4%	38	38	100
Ascension Parish	60	Elevated	15.1%	50	50	50
St. Helena ParishUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Livingston ParishStabilizer	47	Average	17.1%	25	12	75
Pointe Coupee Parish<5%	44	Below Average	2.3%	88	0	62
East Feliciana Parish<5%	34	Below Average	2.2%	62	62	12
Assumption Parish<5%	31	Below Average	2.4%	0	88	25
West Baton Rouge Parish<5%	19	Low Risk	3.2%	12	25	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	55	68	81	29	6	86
2025-12	Exp	57	75	84	30	9	86
2025-10	Exp	58	63	70	28	68	69
2025-09	Rec	56	57	70	28	57	69
2025-07	Rec	54	45	70	28	61	69
2025-06	Hyp	52	53	70	30	35	69
2025-05	Ress	57	47	70	30	74	69
2025-03	Ress	45	13	70	27	40	69
2025-02	Hyp	44	13	70	27	29	69
2025-01	Rec	45	16	70	27	33	69
2024-12	Hyp	42	17	70	28	14	69
2024-10	Hyp	45	35	70	28	16	69
2024-08	Ress	44	41	70	30	4	69
2024-06	Ress	42	28	70	31	2	69
2024-05	Hyp	40	16	70	31	1	69
2024-03	Rec	40	8	70	33	7	69
2024-02	Ress	40	9	70	33	6	69
2023-12	Rec	43	2	70	36	26	69
2023-11	Hyp	44	2	70	36	34	69
2023-09	Rec	48	2	70	37	54	69
2023-08	Hyp	52	3	70	37	81	69
2023-06	Hyp	58	31	70	47	78	69
2023-03	Ress	56	21	70	45	79	69
2023-01	Ress	58	18	70	45	93	69
2022-10	Ress	61	31	70	47	95	69
2022-08	Hyp	49	10	70	41	50	69
2022-07	Exp	48	9	70	41	47	69
2022-05	Exp	54	8	70	43	80	69
2022-02	Rec	49	5	70	46	50	69
2021-12	Rec	55	4	70	53	71	79
2021-11	Exp	52	4	70	53	56	79
2021-09	Exp	55	3	70	55	72	79
2021-06	Exp	52	3	70	59	50	79
2021-05	Rec	51	3	70	59	41	79
2021-03	Rec	54	5	70	65	51	79
2021-02	Exp	54	4	70	65	53	79
2020-12	Exp	49	8	70	49	39	78
2020-11	Rec	51	8	70	49	51	78
2020-09	Rec	53	7	70	50	59	78
2020-06	Rec	57	19	70	51	73	78
2020-03	Rec	59	10	70	51	95	78
2019-12	Rec	60	4	70	52	97	82
2019-11	Exp	59	4	70	52	94	82
2019-09	Exp	59	5	70	53	90	82
2019-08	Rec	59	6	70	53	91	82
2019-06	Rec	60	13	70	54	86	82
2019-04	Hyp	55	12	70	54	61	82
2019-02	Hyp	48	12	70	55	18	82
2019-01	Hyp	49	13	70	55	21	82

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023