Rankings/Baton Rouge, LA

Baton Rouge, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12940Compare

Risk Rank: #108 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +11

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Baton Rouge experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 3 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Baton Rouge's housing market shows average risk, ranking 108th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and migration. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p85 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Migration

p70 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p65 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+4.1%p53

Days on Market YoY

-4.7%p38

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.3%p31

Months in status36

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum65

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth85

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita59

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability29

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment9

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration70

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.4%	p65
Permit Growth	+25.3%	p85
Permits/1K Pop	4.91	p59
Affordability	0.25	p29
Employment	+1.5%	p9
Net AGI Migration	-$19K	p70

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+25.3%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+4.1%

Days on Market YoY-4.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 6 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Baton Rouge's 9 counties show moderate divergence — East Baton Rouge Parish carries the most risk (High Risk) while East Feliciana Parish anchors the lower end.

Moderate17.1

9 of 10 counties scored

Baton Rouge, LA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. East Baton Rouge Parish contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while East Feliciana Parish anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
East Baton Rouge ParishRisk Driver	79	High Risk	11.1%	38	100	100
Ascension Parish	63	Elevated	11.1%	88	38	62
Pointe Coupee Parish	63	Elevated	11.1%	50	88	50
Iberville Parish	54	Average	11.1%	100	50	12
West Feliciana Parish	50	Average	11.1%	0	62	88
Livingston Parish	50	Average	11.1%	62	12	75
St. Helena ParishUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Assumption Parish	42	Below Average	11.1%	12	75	38
West Baton Rouge Parish	33	Below Average	11.1%	75	25	0
East Feliciana ParishStabilizer	17	Low Risk	11.1%	25	0	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	57	64	70	28	59	69
2025-09	Rec	56	57	70	28	57	69
2025-07	Rec	54	45	70	28	61	69
2025-06	Hyp	52	53	70	30	35	69
2025-05	Ress	57	47	70	30	74	69
2025-03	Ress	45	13	70	27	40	69
2025-02	Hyp	44	13	70	27	29	69
2025-01	Rec	45	16	70	27	33	69
2024-12	Hyp	42	17	70	28	14	69
2024-10	Hyp	45	35	70	28	16	69
2024-08	Ress	44	41	70	30	4	69
2024-06	Ress	42	28	70	31	2	69
2024-05	Hyp	40	16	70	31	1	69
2024-03	Rec	40	8	70	33	7	69
2024-02	Ress	40	9	70	33	6	69
2023-12	Rec	43	2	70	36	26	69
2023-11	Hyp	44	2	70	36	34	69
2023-09	Rec	48	2	70	37	54	69
2023-08	Hyp	52	3	70	37	81	69
2023-06	Hyp	58	31	70	47	78	69
2023-03	Ress	56	21	70	45	79	69
2023-01	Ress	58	18	70	45	93	69
2022-10	Ress	61	31	70	47	95	69
2022-08	Hyp	49	10	70	41	50	69
2022-07	Exp	48	9	70	41	47	69
2022-05	Exp	54	8	70	43	80	69
2022-02	Rec	49	5	70	46	50	69
2021-12	Rec	55	4	70	53	71	79
2021-11	Exp	52	4	70	53	56	79
2021-09	Exp	55	3	70	55	72	79
2021-06	Exp	52	3	70	59	50	79
2021-05	Rec	51	3	70	59	41	79
2021-03	Rec	54	5	70	65	51	79
2021-02	Exp	54	4	70	65	53	79
2020-12	Exp	49	8	70	49	39	78
2020-11	Rec	51	8	70	49	51	78
2020-09	Rec	53	7	70	50	59	78
2020-06	Rec	57	19	70	51	73	78
2020-03	Rec	59	10	70	51	95	78
2019-12	Rec	60	4	70	52	97	82
2019-11	Exp	59	4	70	52	94	82
2019-09	Exp	59	5	70	53	90	82
2019-08	Rec	59	6	70	53	91	82
2019-06	Rec	60	13	70	54	86	82
2019-04	Hyp	55	12	70	54	61	82
2019-02	Hyp	48	12	70	55	18	82
2019-01	Hyp	49	13	70	55	21	82

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022