Rankings/Barnstable Town, MA

Barnstable Town, MA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12700Compare

Risk Rank: #222 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Barnstable Town experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Barnstable Town's housing market shows average risk, ranking 222nd of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p96 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p58 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p38 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+1.3%p50

Days on Market YoY

+9.2%p66

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.1%p79

Months in status15

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum38

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth9

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita37

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability96

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment58

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration16

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.8%	p38
Permit Growth	-27.7%	p9
Permits/1K Pop	2.97	p37
Affordability	0.37	p96
Employment	+0.1%	p58
Net AGI Migration	+$240K	p16

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-27.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+1.3%

Days on Market YoY+9.2%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	51	33	72	96	57	16
2025-09	Rec	53	28	72	96	71	16
2025-08	Hyp	57	28	72	96	98	16
2025-06	Hyp	56	43	72	96	76	16
2025-05	Ress	42	29	72	96	6	16
2025-03	Ress	38	10	72	96	0	16
2025-01	Rec	43	40	72	96	0	16
2024-11	Ress	48	68	72	96	2	16
2024-09	Ress	62	78	72	96	78	16
2024-08	Hyp	66	88	72	96	93	16
2024-07	Ress	66	92	72	96	85	16
2024-05	Ress	68	99	72	97	91	16
2024-03	Hyp	65	79	72	96	91	16
2024-01	Exp	61	62	72	96	87	16
2023-11	Exp	60	69	72	89	82	16
2023-08	Rec	54	42	72	87	72	16
2023-06	Rec	51	51	72	87	47	16
2023-05	Hyp	53	47	72	87	63	16
2023-03	Hyp	58	79	72	88	56	16
2023-02	Ress	62	86	72	88	73	16
2022-12	Ress	58	69	72	77	77	16
2022-10	Exp	54	65	72	77	63	16
2022-08	Exp	51	71	72	78	35	16
2022-05	Exp	60	78	72	80	81	16
2022-02	Exp	48	67	72	76	22	16
2022-01	Rec	49	69	72	76	28	16
2021-11	Rec	52	81	72	78	38	8
2021-10	Exp	54	79	72	78	54	8
2021-08	Exp	47	86	72	78	3	8
2021-05	Exp	46	83	72	76	1	8
2021-04	Rec	46	84	72	76	2	8
2021-02	Rec	58	73	72	74	91	8
2020-11	Rec	52	62	72	58	81	5
2020-08	Rec	53	51	72	57	98	5
2020-05	Rec	51	42	72	55	99	5
2020-03	Exp	49	39	72	56	88	5
2020-01	Exp	48	31	72	56	88	5
2019-12	Rec	52	33	72	57	94	19
2019-10	Rec	51	46	72	57	78	19
2019-07	Rec	42	8	72	55	65	19
2019-05	Hyp	45	22	72	56	66	19
2019-03	Hyp	51	45	72	57	80	19
2019-02	Exp	52	46	72	57	83	19
2019-01	Exp	53	45	72	58	91	19

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022