Bangor, ME

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 12620Compare

Risk Rank: #26 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

64score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Bangor's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 26th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Bangor experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025.

Inventory has surged +34% YoY with days on market up +1% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and affordability, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp95

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp85

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp66

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +34% YoY with days on market up +1% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+34.3%p83

Days on Market YoY

+1.2%p50

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p70

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.5%p42

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+7.2%p66

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

3.08p37

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.33p85

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.2%p95

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$2Kp59

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+7.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 22%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	68	65	63	86	100	55
2025-10	Hyp	66	55	63	86	100	55
2025-08	Hyp	62	62	63	86	68	55
2025-05	Rec	65	85	63	86	66	55
2025-03	Ress	64	55	63	83	90	55
2025-02	Hyp	66	72	63	83	89	55
2025-01	Rec	65	84	63	83	71	55
2024-12	Hyp	68	97	63	83	71	55
2024-11	Ress	66	98	63	83	64	55
2024-09	Ress	62	96	63	83	36	55
2024-08	Hyp	62	92	63	83	44	55
2024-06	Ress	55	87	63	84	3	55
2024-04	Ress	57	76	63	84	27	55
2024-02	Rec	54	66	63	78	27	55
2024-01	Hyp	58	81	63	78	32	55
2023-11	Exp	62	87	63	67	63	55
2023-09	Exp	67	99	63	71	78	55
2023-07	Rec	64	99	63	71	58	55
2023-05	Rec	66	97	63	72	74	55
2023-04	Exp	69	95	63	72	92	55
2023-02	Exp	62	72	63	63	81	55
2023-01	Hyp	62	79	63	63	73	55
2022-12	Exp	52	63	63	66	27	55
2022-10	Rec	58	59	63	66	70	55
2022-08	Rec	54	40	63	64	63	55
2022-07	Exp	53	35	63	64	65	55
2022-05	Exp	61	71	63	68	70	55
2022-02	Exp	61	54	63	63	94	55
2022-01	Rec	58	49	63	63	79	55
2021-11	Rec	60	62	63	66	78	53
2021-09	Exp	62	82	63	71	70	53
2021-07	Exp	63	85	63	71	71	53
2021-04	Exp	54	60	63	65	47	53
2021-03	Rec	61	82	63	66	67	53
2021-01	Rec	62	84	63	66	69	53
2020-12	Exp	65	84	63	74	69	64
2020-10	Exp	65	82	63	74	69	64
2020-08	Rec	56	38	63	71	64	64
2020-06	Rec	64	80	63	73	69	64
2020-04	Exp	68	96	63	73	73	64
2020-02	Exp	63	92	63	71	50	64
2019-11	Rec	64	80	63	71	76	63
2019-09	Rec	58	90	63	71	30	63
2019-08	Exp	58	91	63	71	29	63
2019-06	Exp	55	28	63	67	74	63
2019-05	Rec	50	34	63	68	37	63
2019-03	Rec	49	18	63	66	49	63
2019-01	Rec	51	3	63	66	78	63

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023