Bangor, ME

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12620Compare

Risk Rank: #138 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -15

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Bangor's housing market shows average risk, ranking 138th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Bangor experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +38% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and price momentum, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp90

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump72

12-month HPI change

Migrationp59

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +38% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+38.4%p85

Days on Market YoY

+16.3%p77

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.0%p87

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.4%p72

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-28.4%p10

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.59p29

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.35p90

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p42

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$2Kp59

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-28.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 22%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Ress	64	42	66	85	95	59
2025-11	Rec	68	65	63	86	100	55
2025-10	Hyp	66	55	63	86	100	55
2025-08	Hyp	62	62	63	86	68	55
2025-05	Rec	65	85	63	86	66	55
2025-03	Ress	64	55	63	83	90	55
2025-02	Hyp	66	72	63	83	89	55
2025-01	Rec	65	84	63	83	71	55
2024-12	Hyp	68	97	63	83	71	55
2024-11	Ress	66	98	63	83	64	55
2024-09	Ress	62	96	63	83	36	55
2024-08	Hyp	62	92	63	83	44	55
2024-06	Ress	55	87	63	84	3	55
2024-04	Ress	57	76	63	84	27	55
2024-02	Rec	54	66	63	78	27	55
2024-01	Hyp	58	81	63	78	32	55
2023-11	Exp	62	87	63	67	63	55
2023-09	Exp	67	99	63	71	78	55
2023-07	Rec	64	99	63	71	58	55
2023-05	Rec	66	97	63	72	74	55
2023-04	Exp	69	95	63	72	92	55
2023-02	Exp	62	72	63	63	81	55
2023-01	Hyp	62	79	63	63	73	55
2022-12	Exp	52	63	63	66	27	55
2022-10	Rec	58	59	63	66	70	55
2022-08	Rec	54	40	63	64	63	55
2022-07	Exp	53	35	63	64	65	55
2022-05	Exp	61	71	63	68	70	55
2022-02	Exp	61	54	63	63	94	55
2022-01	Rec	58	49	63	63	79	55
2021-11	Rec	60	62	63	66	78	53
2021-09	Exp	62	82	63	71	70	53
2021-07	Exp	63	85	63	71	71	53
2021-04	Exp	54	60	63	65	47	53
2021-03	Rec	61	82	63	66	67	53
2021-01	Rec	62	84	63	66	69	53
2020-12	Exp	65	84	63	74	69	64
2020-10	Exp	65	82	63	74	69	64
2020-08	Rec	56	38	63	71	64	64
2020-06	Rec	64	80	63	73	69	64
2020-04	Exp	68	96	63	73	73	64
2020-02	Exp	63	92	63	71	50	64
2019-11	Rec	64	80	63	71	76	63
2019-09	Rec	58	90	63	71	30	63
2019-08	Exp	58	91	63	71	29	63
2019-06	Exp	55	28	63	67	74	63
2019-05	Rec	50	34	63	68	37	63
2019-03	Rec	49	18	63	66	49	63
2019-01	Rec	51	3	63	66	78	63

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023