Rankings/Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12580Compare

Risk Rank: #172 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— +4

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Baltimore's housing market shows average risk, ranking 172nd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Baltimore experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up +9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Expansion

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp83

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump62

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up +9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+15.1%p65

Days on Market YoY

+9.1%p66

Months in status1

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p70

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+1.8%p62

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-21.6%p15

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.94p17

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p4

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.4%p83

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$666Kp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-21.6%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 21.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Baltimore's counties diverge significantly — Anne Arundel County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Carroll County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High19.7

7 of 7 counties scored

Baltimore, MD shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Anne Arundel County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Carroll County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Anne Arundel CountyRisk Driver	92	High Risk	21.0%	83	100	100
Harford County	58	Elevated	9.3%	100	50	17
Baltimore County	54	Average	29.9%	67	83	33
Howard County	46	Average	11.8%	33	33	67
Baltimore city	38	Below Average	20.1%	50	0	83
Carroll CountyStabilizer	34	Below Average	6.2%	17	67	50
Queen Anne's County<5%	29	Below Average	1.8%	0	17	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	46	61	14	4	80	99
2025-12	Hyp	47	39	44	4	69	99
2025-11	Rec	44	43	21	5	75	96
2025-10	Ress	44	44	21	5	76	96
2025-08	Hyp	42	41	21	5	67	96
2025-06	Hyp	43	45	21	5	66	96
2025-05	Ress	41	47	21	5	52	96
2025-03	Ress	46	53	21	5	81	96
2025-01	Hyp	47	48	21	5	91	96
2024-12	Rec	41	49	21	5	54	96
2024-11	Hyp	42	53	21	5	52	96
2024-09	Rec	40	54	21	5	38	96
2024-08	Hyp	39	49	21	5	41	96
2024-06	Hyp	37	41	21	5	34	96
2024-03	Exp	34	48	21	6	9	96
2024-01	Exp	34	54	21	6	6	96
2023-10	Exp	38	43	21	5	40	96
2023-08	Rec	44	56	21	5	65	96
2023-06	Rec	41	56	21	6	44	96
2023-03	Rec	42	30	21	5	77	96
2023-02	Ress	44	28	21	5	91	96
2023-01	Hyp	43	24	21	5	90	96
2022-11	Exp	43	18	21	6	91	96
2022-10	Rec	42	17	21	6	90	96
2022-08	Rec	37	4	21	6	73	96
2022-07	Exp	37	4	21	6	70	96
2022-05	Exp	38	6	21	8	72	96
2022-02	Exp	37	10	21	10	63	96
2022-01	Rec	37	10	21	10	63	96
2021-11	Rec	35	9	21	7	53	96
2021-10	Exp	34	10	21	7	51	96
2021-08	Exp	32	12	21	7	33	96
2021-05	Exp	37	19	21	8	57	96
2021-04	Rec	39	19	21	8	70	96
2021-02	Rec	40	23	21	8	72	96
2021-01	Exp	40	26	21	8	70	96
2020-11	Exp	41	21	21	7	79	96
2020-09	Rec	41	23	21	7	74	96
2020-07	Rec	39	16	21	7	72	96
2020-04	Rec	38	20	21	8	58	96
2020-01	Rec	42	25	21	7	77	96
2019-10	Rec	39	22	21	7	65	97
2019-09	Exp	43	32	21	8	79	97
2019-07	Exp	40	20	21	8	72	97
2019-06	Rec	38	15	21	8	66	97
2019-04	Rec	38	9	21	8	70	97
2019-03	Exp	36	4	21	8	63	97
2019-01	Exp	36	5	21	8	63	97

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023