Rankings/Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12580Compare

Risk Rank: #183 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +5

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Baltimore's housing market shows average risk, ranking 183rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Baltimore experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +10% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp80

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump61

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +10% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+13.3%p63

Days on Market YoY

+10.0%p67

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p65

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.0%p61

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-24.9%p14

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.94p17

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p4

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.7%p80

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$666Kp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-24.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 21.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Baltimore's counties diverge significantly — Anne Arundel County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Carroll County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High19.7

7 of 7 counties scored

Baltimore, MD shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Anne Arundel County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Carroll County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Anne Arundel CountyRisk Driver	92	High Risk	21.0%	83	100	100
Harford County	58	Elevated	9.3%	100	50	17
Baltimore County	54	Average	29.9%	67	83	33
Howard County	46	Average	11.8%	33	33	67
Baltimore city	38	Below Average	20.1%	50	0	83
Carroll CountyStabilizer	34	Below Average	6.2%	17	67	50
Queen Anne's County<5%	29	Below Average	1.8%	0	17	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Hyp	47	39	44	4	69	99
2025-11	Rec	44	43	21	5	75	96
2025-10	Ress	44	44	21	5	76	96
2025-08	Hyp	42	41	21	5	67	96
2025-06	Hyp	43	45	21	5	66	96
2025-05	Ress	41	47	21	5	52	96
2025-03	Ress	46	53	21	5	81	96
2025-01	Hyp	47	48	21	5	91	96
2024-12	Rec	41	49	21	5	54	96
2024-11	Hyp	42	53	21	5	52	96
2024-09	Rec	40	54	21	5	38	96
2024-08	Hyp	39	49	21	5	41	96
2024-06	Hyp	37	41	21	5	34	96
2024-03	Exp	34	48	21	6	9	96
2024-01	Exp	34	54	21	6	6	96
2023-10	Exp	38	43	21	5	40	96
2023-08	Rec	44	56	21	5	65	96
2023-06	Rec	41	56	21	6	44	96
2023-03	Rec	42	30	21	5	77	96
2023-02	Ress	44	28	21	5	91	96
2023-01	Hyp	43	24	21	5	90	96
2022-11	Exp	43	18	21	6	91	96
2022-10	Rec	42	17	21	6	90	96
2022-08	Rec	37	4	21	6	73	96
2022-07	Exp	37	4	21	6	70	96
2022-05	Exp	38	6	21	8	72	96
2022-02	Exp	37	10	21	10	63	96
2022-01	Rec	37	10	21	10	63	96
2021-11	Rec	35	9	21	7	53	96
2021-10	Exp	34	10	21	7	51	96
2021-08	Exp	32	12	21	7	33	96
2021-05	Exp	37	19	21	8	57	96
2021-04	Rec	39	19	21	8	70	96
2021-02	Rec	40	23	21	8	72	96
2021-01	Exp	40	26	21	8	70	96
2020-11	Exp	41	21	21	7	79	96
2020-09	Rec	41	23	21	7	74	96
2020-07	Rec	39	16	21	7	72	96
2020-04	Rec	38	20	21	8	58	96
2020-01	Rec	42	25	21	7	77	96
2019-10	Rec	39	22	21	7	65	97
2019-09	Exp	43	32	21	8	79	97
2019-07	Exp	40	20	21	8	72	97
2019-06	Rec	38	15	21	8	66	97
2019-04	Rec	38	9	21	8	70	97
2019-03	Exp	36	4	21	8	63	97
2019-01	Exp	36	5	21	8	63	97

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023