Rankings/Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12580Compare

Risk Rank: #169 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +6

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Baltimore's housing market shows average risk, ranking 169th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Baltimore experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +25% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp69

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp44

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +25% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+24.8%p75

Days on Market YoY

+12.2%p71

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p67

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+2.4%p39

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-4.0%p44

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.21p25

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.20p4

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.1%p69

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$666Kp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-4.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 21.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Baltimore's 7 counties show moderate divergence — Howard County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Harford County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.3

7 of 7 counties scored

Baltimore, MD shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Howard County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Harford County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Anne Arundel County	71	Elevated	21.0%	50	100	100
Howard CountyRisk Driver	71	Elevated	11.8%	67	83	67
Carroll County	50	Average	6.2%	100	50	50
Queen Anne's County<5%	50	Average	1.8%	83	17	0
Baltimore city	42	Below Average	20.1%	0	33	83
Baltimore County	34	Below Average	29.9%	17	67	33
Harford CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	9.3%	33	0	17

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	43	21	5	75	96
2025-10	Ress	44	44	21	5	76	96
2025-08	Hyp	42	41	21	5	67	96
2025-06	Hyp	43	45	21	5	66	96
2025-05	Ress	41	47	21	5	52	96
2025-03	Ress	46	53	21	5	81	96
2025-01	Hyp	47	48	21	5	91	96
2024-12	Rec	41	49	21	5	54	96
2024-11	Hyp	42	53	21	5	52	96
2024-09	Rec	40	54	21	5	38	96
2024-08	Hyp	39	49	21	5	41	96
2024-06	Hyp	37	41	21	5	34	96
2024-03	Exp	34	48	21	6	9	96
2024-01	Exp	34	54	21	6	6	96
2023-10	Exp	38	43	21	5	40	96
2023-08	Rec	44	56	21	5	65	96
2023-06	Rec	41	56	21	6	44	96
2023-03	Rec	42	30	21	5	77	96
2023-02	Ress	44	28	21	5	91	96
2023-01	Hyp	43	24	21	5	90	96
2022-11	Exp	43	18	21	6	91	96
2022-10	Rec	42	17	21	6	90	96
2022-08	Rec	37	4	21	6	73	96
2022-07	Exp	37	4	21	6	70	96
2022-05	Exp	38	6	21	8	72	96
2022-02	Exp	37	10	21	10	63	96
2022-01	Rec	37	10	21	10	63	96
2021-11	Rec	35	9	21	7	53	96
2021-10	Exp	34	10	21	7	51	96
2021-08	Exp	32	12	21	7	33	96
2021-05	Exp	37	19	21	8	57	96
2021-04	Rec	39	19	21	8	70	96
2021-02	Rec	40	23	21	8	72	96
2021-01	Exp	40	26	21	8	70	96
2020-11	Exp	41	21	21	7	79	96
2020-09	Rec	41	23	21	7	74	96
2020-07	Rec	39	16	21	7	72	96
2020-04	Rec	38	20	21	8	58	96
2020-01	Rec	42	25	21	7	77	96
2019-10	Rec	39	22	21	7	65	97
2019-09	Exp	43	32	21	8	79	97
2019-07	Exp	40	20	21	8	72	97
2019-06	Rec	38	15	21	8	66	97
2019-04	Rec	38	9	21	8	70	97
2019-03	Exp	36	4	21	8	63	97
2019-01	Exp	36	5	21	8	63	97

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023