Rankings/Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12580Compare

Risk Rank: #168 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +6

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Baltimore experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Baltimore's housing market shows average risk, ranking 168th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p96 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p69 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p45 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +25% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+24.8%p75

Days on Market YoY

+12.2%p71

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p74

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum40

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth45

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita26

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability5

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment69

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration96

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.9%	p40
Permit Growth	-4.0%	p45
Permits/1K Pop	2.21	p26
Affordability	0.20	p5
Employment	-0.1%	p69
Net AGI Migration	-$843K	p96

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-4.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY+24.8%

Days on Market YoY+12.2%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Baltimore's counties diverge significantly — Anne Arundel County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Harford County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High22.3

7 of 7 counties scored

Baltimore, MD shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Anne Arundel County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Harford County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Anne Arundel CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	14.3%	50	100	100
Howard County	72	Elevated	14.3%	67	83	67
Carroll County	67	Elevated	14.3%	100	50	50
Baltimore city	39	Below Average	14.3%	0	33	83
Baltimore County	39	Below Average	14.3%	17	67	33
Queen Anne's County	33	Below Average	14.3%	83	17	0
Harford CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	14.3%	33	0	17

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	43	21	5	75	96
2025-10	Ress	44	44	21	5	76	96
2025-08	Hyp	42	41	21	5	67	96
2025-06	Hyp	43	45	21	5	66	96
2025-05	Ress	41	47	21	5	52	96
2025-03	Ress	46	53	21	5	81	96
2025-01	Hyp	47	48	21	5	91	96
2024-12	Rec	41	49	21	5	54	96
2024-11	Hyp	42	53	21	5	52	96
2024-09	Rec	40	54	21	5	38	96
2024-08	Hyp	39	49	21	5	41	96
2024-06	Hyp	37	41	21	5	34	96
2024-03	Exp	34	48	21	6	9	96
2024-01	Exp	34	54	21	6	6	96
2023-10	Exp	38	43	21	5	40	96
2023-08	Rec	44	56	21	5	65	96
2023-06	Rec	41	56	21	6	44	96
2023-03	Rec	42	30	21	5	77	96
2023-02	Ress	44	28	21	5	91	96
2023-01	Hyp	43	24	21	5	90	96
2022-11	Exp	43	18	21	6	91	96
2022-10	Rec	42	17	21	6	90	96
2022-08	Rec	37	4	21	6	73	96
2022-07	Exp	37	4	21	6	70	96
2022-05	Exp	38	6	21	8	72	96
2022-02	Exp	37	10	21	10	63	96
2022-01	Rec	37	10	21	10	63	96
2021-11	Rec	35	9	21	7	53	96
2021-10	Exp	34	10	21	7	51	96
2021-08	Exp	32	12	21	7	33	96
2021-05	Exp	37	19	21	8	57	96
2021-04	Rec	39	19	21	8	70	96
2021-02	Rec	40	23	21	8	72	96
2021-01	Exp	40	26	21	8	70	96
2020-11	Exp	41	21	21	7	79	96
2020-09	Rec	41	23	21	7	74	96
2020-07	Rec	39	16	21	7	72	96
2020-04	Rec	38	20	21	8	58	96
2020-01	Rec	42	25	21	7	77	96
2019-10	Rec	39	22	21	7	65	97
2019-09	Exp	43	32	21	8	79	97
2019-07	Exp	40	20	21	8	72	97
2019-06	Rec	38	15	21	8	66	97
2019-04	Rec	38	9	21	8	70	97
2019-03	Exp	36	4	21	8	63	97
2019-01	Exp	36	5	21	8	63	97

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022