Rankings/Bakersfield-Delano, CA

Bakersfield-Delano, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12540Compare

Risk Rank: #120 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Bakersfield experienced a market correction from late 2024 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Bakersfield's housing market shows average risk, ranking 120th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p86 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p71 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p58 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +18% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.3%p61

Days on Market YoY

+17.9%p78

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.5%p83

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum30

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth58

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita41

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability71

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment23

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration86

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.2%	p30
Permit Growth	+2.5%	p58
Permits/1K Pop	3.21	p41
Affordability	0.30	p71
Employment	+0.9%	p23
Net AGI Migration	-$94K	p86

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+2.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+11.3%

Days on Market YoY+17.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	57	34	81	71	23	86
2025-09	Hyp	57	31	81	71	28	86
2025-06	Hyp	76	83	81	77	83	86
2025-03	Ress	64	64	81	71	38	86
2025-01	Ress	66	54	81	71	56	86
2024-10	Hyp	54	21	81	70	24	86
2024-08	Hyp	62	45	81	72	40	86
2024-07	Ress	63	54	81	72	39	86
2024-05	Ress	62	44	81	70	49	86
2024-03	Hyp	68	70	81	71	55	86
2024-02	Exp	65	69	81	71	36	86
2023-12	Exp	67	77	81	70	45	86
2023-09	Exp	64	36	81	67	73	86
2023-08	Rec	63	32	81	67	67	86
2023-06	Rec	59	17	81	64	60	86
2023-03	Hyp	62	14	81	65	79	86
2023-01	Ress	62	12	81	65	85	86
2022-11	Ress	62	29	81	66	64	86
2022-10	Hyp	61	39	81	66	48	86
2022-08	Hyp	60	61	81	70	15	86
2022-07	Ress	60	64	81	70	13	86
2022-05	Ress	61	69	81	72	15	86
2022-04	Hyp	60	70	81	72	4	86
2022-03	Exp	60	76	81	72	2	86
2022-02	Rec	60	74	81	72	2	86
2021-12	Rec	57	65	81	78	7	69
2021-11	Exp	58	67	81	78	8	69
2021-09	Exp	59	72	81	78	13	69
2021-06	Exp	61	77	81	79	16	69
2021-04	Rec	72	74	81	78	86	69
2021-02	Rec	72	82	81	80	74	69
2021-01	Exp	71	81	81	80	73	69
2020-11	Exp	66	72	81	82	53	67
2020-09	Rec	66	57	81	81	64	67
2020-07	Rec	64	61	81	81	49	67
2020-06	Exp	67	74	81	82	57	67
2020-04	Exp	61	78	81	81	15	67
2020-03	Rec	58	68	81	82	5	67
2020-01	Rec	56	59	81	82	6	67
2019-10	Rec	59	56	81	81	14	81
2019-07	Rec	60	50	81	82	25	81
2019-06	Exp	56	36	81	81	17	81
2019-04	Exp	56	42	81	81	10	81
2019-01	Exp	59	38	81	82	28	81

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022