Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
Cycle Phase
Austin experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.
Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals
Austin's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 244th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity.
Executive Summary
Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.
Top Risk Drivers (This Month)
Market Signals
Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +10% longer to sell — within normal ranges.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
Factor Breakdown
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Underlying Values
| Metric | Value | Pctile |
|---|---|---|
| Price Momentum | +0.1% | p15 |
| Permit Growth | -18.2% | p21 |
| Permits/1K Pop | 11.31 | p94 |
| Affordability | 0.30 | p71 |
| Employment | +0.7% | p31 |
| Net AGI Migration | +$2M | p2 |
National ContextDoes not affect score
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local SignalsDoes not affect score
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
Sharp CoolingRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.
Liquidity
Liquidity
Internal Structure
Austin's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Bastrop County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Caldwell County anchors the lower end.
Austin, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Bastrop County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Caldwell County anchors the lower end (Below Average).
| County | Score ▼ |
|---|---|
Bastrop CountyRisk Driver | 67 |
Williamson County | 58 |
Travis County | 50 |
Hays County | 42 |
Caldwell CountyStabilizer | 33 |
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 40 |
| 2025-09 | 42 |
| 2025-08 | 42 |
| 2025-06 | 41 |
| 2025-04 | 38 |
| 2025-02 | 37 |
| 2025-01 | 38 |
| 2024-12 | 36 |
| 2024-11 | 36 |
| 2024-09 | 34 |
| 2024-08 | 35 |
| 2024-06 | 36 |
| 2024-05 | 36 |
| 2024-03 | 38 |
| 2024-02 | 36 |
| 2023-12 | 36 |
| 2023-10 | 36 |
| 2023-08 | 36 |
| 2023-07 | 35 |
| 2023-05 | 34 |
| 2023-03 | 35 |
| 2023-01 | 35 |
| 2022-10 | 37 |
| 2022-09 | 47 |
| 2022-07 | 46 |
| 2022-05 | 51 |
| 2022-04 | 51 |
| 2022-03 | 52 |
| 2022-02 | 52 |
| 2021-12 | 51 |
| 2021-11 | 51 |
| 2021-09 | 52 |
| 2021-06 | 52 |
| 2021-03 | 51 |
| 2021-01 | 52 |
| 2020-10 | 52 |
| 2020-07 | 50 |
| 2020-06 | 51 |
| 2020-04 | 49 |
| 2020-03 | 46 |
| 2020-01 | 46 |
| 2019-10 | 48 |
| 2019-09 | 49 |
| 2019-07 | 47 |
| 2019-06 | 48 |
| 2019-04 | 46 |
| 2019-03 | 45 |
| 2019-01 | 46 |