Rankings/Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 12420Compare

Risk Rank: #247 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +1

37score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Austin's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 247th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Austin experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +10% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap93

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp68

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp32

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +10% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+12.9%p62

Days on Market YoY

+10.0%p67

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.5%p28

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.2%p5

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-18.2%p21

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

11.31p93

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p68

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p32

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$2Mp1

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-18.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorProfessional & Technical 15%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Austin's 5 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low1.9Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Austin, TX shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Hays County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Travis County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Bastrop County<5%	69	Elevated	4.4%	75	100	25
Hays CountyRisk Driver	56	Elevated	11.1%	0	75	50
Travis CountyStabilizer	50	Average	54.8%	25	25	100
Williamson County	50	Average	27.7%	50	50	75
Caldwell County<5%	25	Low Risk	2.0%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	40	16	21	71	33	3
2025-09	Rec	42	12	21	71	52	3
2025-08	Hyp	42	9	21	71	50	3
2025-06	Hyp	41	4	21	71	53	3
2025-04	Ress	38	2	21	71	34	3
2025-02	Ress	37	3	21	74	28	3
2025-01	Hyp	38	3	21	74	32	3
2024-12	Rec	36	3	21	74	18	3
2024-11	Hyp	36	2	21	74	19	3
2024-09	Hyp	34	4	21	76	8	3
2024-08	Ress	35	2	21	76	11	3
2024-06	Ress	36	1	21	79	16	3
2024-05	Hyp	36	2	21	79	18	3
2024-03	Hyp	38	1	21	82	25	3
2024-02	Exp	36	1	21	82	17	3
2023-12	Exp	36	0	21	76	19	3
2023-10	Rec	36	0	21	76	20	3
2023-08	Rec	36	0	21	78	19	3
2023-07	Hyp	35	0	21	78	13	3
2023-05	Hyp	34	0	21	82	3	3
2023-03	Ress	35	2	21	87	1	3
2023-01	Ress	35	4	21	87	1	3
2022-10	Ress	37	15	21	88	1	3
2022-09	Hyp	47	71	21	91	1	3
2022-07	Ress	46	68	21	91	1	3
2022-05	Ress	51	93	21	92	1	3
2022-04	Hyp	51	95	21	92	1	3
2022-03	Exp	52	97	21	92	1	3
2022-02	Rec	52	98	21	92	1	3
2021-12	Rec	51	100	20	92	1	0
2021-11	Exp	51	100	20	92	1	0
2021-09	Exp	52	100	20	93	2	0
2021-06	Exp	52	99	20	91	5	0
2021-03	Rec	51	95	20	85	13	0
2021-01	Rec	52	94	20	85	15	0
2020-10	Rec	52	93	20	84	18	1
2020-07	Rec	50	79	20	82	22	1
2020-06	Exp	51	83	20	82	23	1
2020-04	Exp	49	81	20	82	16	1
2020-03	Rec	46	77	20	81	3	1
2020-01	Rec	46	79	20	81	1	1
2019-10	Rec	48	88	20	80	2	1
2019-09	Exp	49	93	20	81	3	1
2019-07	Exp	47	84	20	81	2	1
2019-06	Rec	48	86	20	81	2	1
2019-04	Rec	46	79	20	81	1	1
2019-03	Exp	45	76	20	79	1	1
2019-01	Exp	46	77	20	79	4	1

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022