Rankings/Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 12420Compare

Risk Rank: #264 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -10

31score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Austin's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 264th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Austin experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap90

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp66

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp13

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-5.0%p43

Days on Market YoY

+8.6%p65

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.1%p46

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.5%p7

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-25.7%p13

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

9.63p90

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p66

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.9%p8

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$2Mp1

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-25.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorProfessional & Technical 15%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Austin's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Hays County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Williamson County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.2Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Austin, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Hays County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Williamson County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Bastrop County<5%	81	High Risk	4.4%	100	100	25
Hays CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	11.1%	75	50	50
Travis County	62	Elevated	54.8%	25	75	100
Williamson CountyStabilizer	31	Below Average	27.7%	50	0	75
Caldwell County<5%	12	Low Risk	2.0%	0	25	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	31	4	11	66	12	1
2025-12	Exp	37	5	21	68	32	1
2025-11	Rec	40	16	21	71	33	3
2025-09	Rec	42	12	21	71	52	3
2025-08	Hyp	42	9	21	71	50	3
2025-06	Hyp	41	4	21	71	53	3
2025-04	Ress	38	2	21	71	34	3
2025-02	Ress	37	3	21	74	28	3
2025-01	Hyp	38	3	21	74	32	3
2024-12	Rec	36	3	21	74	18	3
2024-11	Hyp	36	2	21	74	19	3
2024-09	Hyp	34	4	21	76	8	3
2024-08	Ress	35	2	21	76	11	3
2024-06	Ress	36	1	21	79	16	3
2024-05	Hyp	36	2	21	79	18	3
2024-03	Hyp	38	1	21	82	25	3
2024-02	Exp	36	1	21	82	17	3
2023-12	Exp	36	0	21	76	19	3
2023-10	Rec	36	0	21	76	20	3
2023-08	Rec	36	0	21	78	19	3
2023-07	Hyp	35	0	21	78	13	3
2023-05	Hyp	34	0	21	82	3	3
2023-03	Ress	35	2	21	87	1	3
2023-01	Ress	35	4	21	87	1	3
2022-10	Ress	37	15	21	88	1	3
2022-09	Hyp	47	71	21	91	1	3
2022-07	Ress	46	68	21	91	1	3
2022-05	Ress	51	93	21	92	1	3
2022-04	Hyp	51	95	21	92	1	3
2022-03	Exp	52	97	21	92	1	3
2022-02	Rec	52	98	21	92	1	3
2021-12	Rec	51	100	20	92	1	0
2021-11	Exp	51	100	20	92	1	0
2021-09	Exp	52	100	20	93	2	0
2021-06	Exp	52	99	20	91	5	0
2021-03	Rec	51	95	20	85	13	0
2021-01	Rec	52	94	20	85	15	0
2020-10	Rec	52	93	20	84	18	1
2020-07	Rec	50	79	20	82	22	1
2020-06	Exp	51	83	20	82	23	1
2020-04	Exp	49	81	20	82	16	1
2020-03	Rec	46	77	20	81	3	1
2020-01	Rec	46	79	20	81	1	1
2019-10	Rec	48	88	20	80	2	1
2019-09	Exp	49	93	20	81	3	1
2019-07	Exp	47	84	20	81	2	1
2019-06	Rec	48	86	20	81	2	1
2019-04	Rec	46	79	20	81	1	1
2019-03	Exp	45	76	20	79	1	1
2019-01	Exp	46	77	20	79	4	1

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023