Rankings/Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC

Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12260Compare

Risk Rank: #212 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -19

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Augusta's housing market shows average risk, ranking 212th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Augusta experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +33% YoY with days on market up +1% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and migration, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap70

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp57

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump53

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +33% YoY with days on market up +1% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+33.1%p82

Days on Market YoY

+1.2%p50

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.9%p50

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.3%p53

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-17.4%p22

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.14p70

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p38

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.3%p15

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$2Kp57

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-17.4%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 32%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Augusta's 7 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low6.3Limited data

7 of 7 counties scored

Augusta, GA-SC shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Aiken County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Columbia County anchors the lower end (Elevated).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Aiken CountyRisk Driver	79	High Risk	27.9%	33	100	83
Richmond County	71	Elevated	33.0%	83	83	100
Columbia CountyStabilizer	63	Elevated	26.0%	67	50	67
Lincoln County<5%	54	Average	1.3%	50	67	17
Edgefield County<5%	50	Average	4.4%	100	0	50
McDuffie County<5%	25	Low Risk	3.5%	17	17	33
Burke County<5%	8	Low Risk	3.9%	0	33	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	52	63	80	37	20	34
2025-10	Hyp	55	75	80	37	24	34
2025-09	Rec	56	68	80	37	36	34
2025-08	Hyp	58	63	80	37	56	34
2025-06	Exp	48	28	80	32	38	34
2025-04	Exp	53	47	80	32	47	34
2025-01	Rec	68	96	80	40	78	34
2024-11	Rec	58	48	80	35	69	34
2024-10	Hyp	53	24	80	35	64	34
2024-08	Hyp	56	38	80	39	68	34
2024-06	Ress	52	21	80	35	60	34
2024-04	Ress	54	32	80	35	67	34
2024-02	Hyp	54	14	80	29	91	34
2024-01	Rec	56	24	80	29	90	34
2023-11	Rec	65	65	80	45	88	34
2023-10	Hyp	63	52	80	45	90	34
2023-08	Rec	67	73	80	46	91	34
2023-07	Hyp	69	79	80	46	95	34
2023-05	Hyp	68	82	80	44	89	34
2023-02	Ress	60	63	80	39	68	34
2022-12	Ress	66	82	80	45	79	34
2022-09	Hyp	66	76	80	39	90	34
2022-08	Ress	66	78	80	39	86	34
2022-06	Ress	62	61	80	35	82	34
2022-04	Exp	58	55	80	35	66	34
2022-03	Rec	64	61	80	37	96	34
2022-01	Rec	64	59	80	37	94	34
2021-12	Exp	68	58	80	48	93	50
2021-10	Exp	69	62	80	48	95	50
2021-07	Exp	63	52	80	44	74	50
2021-06	Rec	68	64	80	46	92	50
2021-04	Rec	62	57	80	46	60	50
2021-03	Exp	60	64	80	46	44	50
2021-01	Exp	58	58	80	46	36	50
2020-12	Rec	50	34	80	40	28	40
2020-10	Rec	50	33	80	40	27	40
2020-07	Rec	58	79	80	39	29	40
2020-05	Exp	56	77	80	39	24	40
2020-03	Exp	56	85	80	41	14	40
2020-02	Rec	58	91	80	41	15	40
2019-12	Rec	61	98	80	42	19	49
2019-09	Rec	51	43	80	34	21	49
2019-08	Exp	54	55	80	34	27	49
2019-06	Exp	61	82	80	38	38	49
2019-03	Exp	57	23	80	33	77	49
2019-01	Exp	57	24	80	33	80	49

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023