Rankings/Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC

Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 12260Compare

Risk Rank: #244 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -22

39score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Augusta experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 2 months·Previously: Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Augusta's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 244th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permits per capita and price momentum. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p71 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentum

p54 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Affordability

p39 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +33% YoY with days on market up +1% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+33.1%p82

Days on Market YoY

+1.2%p50

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.2%p62

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum54

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth21

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita71

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability39

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment14

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration35

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.6%	p54
Permit Growth	-17.4%	p21
Permits/1K Pop	6.14	p71
Affordability	0.26	p39
Employment	+1.3%	p14
Net AGI Migration	+$53K	p35

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-17.4%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+33.1%

Days on Market YoY+1.2%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Augusta's counties diverge significantly — Richmond County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Burke County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High25.2

7 of 7 counties scored

Augusta, GA-SC shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Richmond County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by affordability), while Burke County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Richmond CountyRisk Driver	89	High Risk	14.3%	83	83	100
Aiken County	72	Elevated	14.3%	33	100	83
Columbia County	61	Elevated	14.3%	67	50	67
Edgefield County	50	Average	14.3%	100	0	50
Lincoln County	45	Below Average	14.3%	50	67	17
McDuffie County	22	Low Risk	14.3%	17	17	33
Burke CountyStabilizer	11	Low Risk	14.3%	0	33	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	52	63	80	37	20	34
2025-10	Hyp	55	75	80	37	24	34
2025-09	Rec	56	68	80	37	36	34
2025-08	Hyp	58	63	80	37	56	34
2025-06	Exp	48	28	80	32	38	34
2025-04	Exp	53	47	80	32	47	34
2025-01	Rec	68	96	80	40	78	34
2024-11	Rec	58	48	80	35	69	34
2024-10	Hyp	53	24	80	35	64	34
2024-08	Hyp	56	38	80	39	68	34
2024-06	Ress	52	21	80	35	60	34
2024-04	Ress	54	32	80	35	67	34
2024-02	Hyp	54	14	80	29	91	34
2024-01	Rec	56	24	80	29	90	34
2023-11	Rec	65	65	80	45	88	34
2023-10	Hyp	63	52	80	45	90	34
2023-08	Rec	67	73	80	46	91	34
2023-07	Hyp	69	79	80	46	95	34
2023-05	Hyp	68	82	80	44	89	34
2023-02	Ress	60	63	80	39	68	34
2022-12	Ress	66	82	80	45	79	34
2022-09	Hyp	66	76	80	39	90	34
2022-08	Ress	66	78	80	39	86	34
2022-06	Ress	62	61	80	35	82	34
2022-04	Exp	58	55	80	35	66	34
2022-03	Rec	64	61	80	37	96	34
2022-01	Rec	64	59	80	37	94	34
2021-12	Exp	68	58	80	48	93	50
2021-10	Exp	69	62	80	48	95	50
2021-07	Exp	63	52	80	44	74	50
2021-06	Rec	68	64	80	46	92	50
2021-04	Rec	62	57	80	46	60	50
2021-03	Exp	60	64	80	46	44	50
2021-01	Exp	58	58	80	46	36	50
2020-12	Rec	50	34	80	40	28	40
2020-10	Rec	50	33	80	40	27	40
2020-07	Rec	58	79	80	39	29	40
2020-05	Exp	56	77	80	39	24	40
2020-03	Exp	56	85	80	41	14	40
2020-02	Rec	58	91	80	41	15	40
2019-12	Rec	61	98	80	42	19	49
2019-09	Rec	51	43	80	34	21	49
2019-08	Exp	54	55	80	34	27	49
2019-06	Exp	61	82	80	38	38	49
2019-03	Exp	57	23	80	33	77	49
2019-01	Exp	57	24	80	33	80	49

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022