Rankings/Auburn-Opelika, AL

Auburn-Opelika, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12220Compare

Risk Rank: #133 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -21

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Auburn's housing market shows average risk, ranking 133rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Auburn experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap86

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp62

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump58

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

-0.8%p48

Days on Market YoY

-3.0%p42

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.5%p94

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.5%p58

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-14.8%p26

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.25p86

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.29p62

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p31

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$36Kp37

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-14.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 50%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	52	3	82	53	53	32
2025-09	Rec	54	6	82	53	60	32
2025-06	Rec	68	100	82	66	40	32
2025-05	Hyp	67	100	82	66	35	32
2025-03	Exp	69	97	82	62	53	32
2025-02	Rec	72	97	82	62	72	32
2024-12	Rec	71	98	82	64	60	32
2024-11	Ress	70	97	82	64	53	32
2024-10	Hyp	71	96	82	64	64	32
2024-08	Hyp	52	15	82	55	41	32
2024-06	Rec	45	4	82	49	14	32
2024-04	Ress	45	12	82	49	6	32
2024-02	Hyp	50	43	82	53	1	32
2023-12	Hyp	56	55	82	78	2	32
2023-11	Rec	54	42	82	78	3	32
2023-09	Hyp	62	85	82	81	3	32
2023-08	Rec	63	93	82	81	3	32
2023-07	Hyp	64	98	82	81	2	32
2023-05	Hyp	64	85	82	78	21	32
2023-02	Ress	56	41	82	74	20	32
2022-12	Ress	61	76	82	67	21	32
2022-09	Rec	51	29	82	58	15	32
2022-07	Hyp	54	38	82	58	26	32
2022-06	Exp	56	50	82	63	24	32
2022-04	Exp	56	36	82	63	36	32
2022-01	Exp	60	31	82	62	64	32
2021-12	Rec	64	26	82	68	80	39
2021-10	Rec	62	31	82	68	66	39
2021-09	Exp	58	16	82	70	52	39
2021-07	Exp	53	9	82	70	31	39
2021-06	Rec	53	22	82	74	12	39
2021-04	Rec	54	32	82	74	12	39
2021-01	Rec	55	19	82	75	27	39
2020-11	Exp	51	22	82	57	23	35
2020-09	Exp	64	79	82	62	38	35
2020-08	Rec	62	69	82	62	37	35
2020-06	Rec	57	14	82	61	61	35
2020-04	Exp	59	14	82	60	76	35
2020-02	Exp	54	49	82	61	11	35
2020-01	Rec	56	52	82	61	20	35
2019-11	Rec	50	27	82	58	7	35
2019-08	Exp	59	57	82	61	29	35
2019-06	Exp	61	66	82	61	30	35
2019-05	Hyp	60	70	82	61	22	35
2019-04	Exp	60	75	82	61	19	35
2019-02	Exp	62	76	82	62	28	35
2019-01	Exp	59	78	82	62	8	35

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023