Rankings/Auburn-Opelika, AL

Auburn-Opelika, AL

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 12220Compare

Risk Rank: #34 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +13

62score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Auburn's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 34th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Auburn experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024.

Inventory has surged +28% YoY with days on market up +10% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap97

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp90

YoY permit change

Price Momentump84

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +28% YoY with days on market up +10% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+28.0%p78

Days on Market YoY

+10.3%p68

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p72

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.1%p84

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+42.9%p90

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

13.46p97

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p62

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+2.5%p3

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$36Kp38

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+42.9%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant overbuilding into weak demand. This is the highest-risk metro combination — new supply is delivering into a market that is already struggling to absorb existing inventory.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 50%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	62	92	81	63	1	37
2025-12	Exp	50	58	26	62	31	37
2025-11	Rec	52	3	82	53	53	32
2025-09	Rec	54	6	82	53	60	32
2025-06	Rec	68	100	82	66	40	32
2025-05	Hyp	67	100	82	66	35	32
2025-03	Exp	69	97	82	62	53	32
2025-02	Rec	72	97	82	62	72	32
2024-12	Rec	71	98	82	64	60	32
2024-11	Ress	70	97	82	64	53	32
2024-10	Hyp	71	96	82	64	64	32
2024-08	Hyp	52	15	82	55	41	32
2024-06	Rec	45	4	82	49	14	32
2024-04	Ress	45	12	82	49	6	32
2024-02	Hyp	50	43	82	53	1	32
2023-12	Hyp	56	55	82	78	2	32
2023-11	Rec	54	42	82	78	3	32
2023-09	Hyp	62	85	82	81	3	32
2023-08	Rec	63	93	82	81	3	32
2023-07	Hyp	64	98	82	81	2	32
2023-05	Hyp	64	85	82	78	21	32
2023-02	Ress	56	41	82	74	20	32
2022-12	Ress	61	76	82	67	21	32
2022-09	Rec	51	29	82	58	15	32
2022-07	Hyp	54	38	82	58	26	32
2022-06	Exp	56	50	82	63	24	32
2022-04	Exp	56	36	82	63	36	32
2022-01	Exp	60	31	82	62	64	32
2021-12	Rec	64	26	82	68	80	39
2021-10	Rec	62	31	82	68	66	39
2021-09	Exp	58	16	82	70	52	39
2021-07	Exp	53	9	82	70	31	39
2021-06	Rec	53	22	82	74	12	39
2021-04	Rec	54	32	82	74	12	39
2021-01	Rec	55	19	82	75	27	39
2020-11	Exp	51	22	82	57	23	35
2020-09	Exp	64	79	82	62	38	35
2020-08	Rec	62	69	82	62	37	35
2020-06	Rec	57	14	82	61	61	35
2020-04	Exp	59	14	82	60	76	35
2020-02	Exp	54	49	82	61	11	35
2020-01	Rec	56	52	82	61	20	35
2019-11	Rec	50	27	82	58	7	35
2019-08	Exp	59	57	82	61	29	35
2019-06	Exp	61	66	82	61	30	35
2019-05	Hyp	60	70	82	61	22	35
2019-04	Exp	60	75	82	61	19	35
2019-02	Exp	62	76	82	62	28	35
2019-01	Exp	59	78	82	62	8	35

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023