Rankings/Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ

Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 12100Compare

Risk Rank: #17 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

66score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Atlantic City's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 17th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Atlantic City experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump96

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp92

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp88

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+4.7%p53

Days on Market YoY

+2.8%p54

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.7%p39

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+7.1%p96

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-4.2%p43

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.08p51

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.35p92

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.6%p88

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$96Kp26

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-4.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorAccommodation & Food 28.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	68	59	100	89	87	27
2025-09	Rec	68	63	100	89	81	27
2025-08	Hyp	74	82	100	89	97	27
2025-07	Rec	76	91	100	89	99	27
2025-06	Hyp	76	94	100	87	97	27
2025-04	Hyp	60	93	100	87	2	27
2025-02	Exp	54	66	100	84	1	27
2025-01	Rec	54	62	100	84	2	27
2024-11	Rec	61	99	100	87	5	27
2024-10	Hyp	62	100	100	87	10	27
2024-09	Ress	70	94	100	83	66	27
2024-07	Ress	73	98	100	83	83	27
2024-06	Hyp	71	96	100	82	72	27
2024-04	Exp	71	92	100	82	74	27
2024-02	Exp	70	98	100	83	63	27
2023-11	Exp	73	98	100	72	92	27
2023-08	Rec	65	85	100	66	62	27
2023-06	Rec	65	89	100	68	54	27
2023-03	Ress	66	75	100	64	83	27
2023-01	Exp	66	76	100	64	76	27
2022-11	Exp	58	64	100	57	50	27
2022-10	Rec	57	68	100	57	39	27
2022-08	Rec	56	79	100	59	25	27
2022-07	Exp	56	79	100	59	25	27
2022-05	Exp	56	75	100	57	28	27
2022-02	Exp	51	71	100	56	3	27
2022-01	Rec	52	72	100	56	8	27
2021-11	Rec	52	79	100	68	3	14
2021-10	Exp	54	82	100	68	11	14
2021-08	Exp	51	78	100	67	1	14
2021-05	Exp	53	88	100	69	0	14
2021-03	Rec	70	93	100	66	98	14
2021-01	Rec	70	93	100	66	96	14
2020-12	Exp	67	83	100	61	97	14
2020-10	Exp	66	76	100	61	97	14
2020-09	Rec	67	84	100	61	96	14
2020-07	Rec	67	81	100	61	99	14
2020-04	Rec	68	88	100	59	99	14
2020-01	Rec	62	82	100	57	72	14
2019-10	Rec	64	87	100	58	65	20
2019-08	Exp	68	94	100	57	89	20
2019-06	Exp	59	53	100	53	75	20
2019-03	Exp	44	37	100	53	1	20
2019-01	Exp	46	49	100	53	2	20

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022