Rankings/Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12060Compare

Risk Rank: #140 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Atlanta's housing market shows average risk, ranking 140th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Atlanta experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp95

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap63

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp63

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.6%p61

Days on Market YoY

+7.7%p63

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p78

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.4%p26

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-16.1%p23

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.26p63

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.25p27

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.0%p63

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$423Kp95

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-16.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 38.8%

4 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Atlanta's 29 counties show moderate divergence — Fulton County carries the most risk (Elevated) while DeKalb County anchors the lower end.

Moderate15.3Limited data

29 of 29 counties scored

Atlanta, GA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Fulton County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while DeKalb County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Dawson County<5%	85	High Risk	0.5%	93	89	57
Cherokee County<5%	80	High Risk	4.5%	79	75	86
Forsyth County<5%	73	Elevated	4.3%	71	93	54
Fulton CountyRisk Driver	72	Elevated	17.2%	36	71	100
Morgan County<5%	70	Elevated	0.3%	100	39	75
Barrow County<5%	67	Elevated	1.4%	64	82	25
Newton County<5%	63	Elevated	1.9%	39	96	29
Lumpkin County<5%	62	Elevated	0.5%	96	68	18
Gwinnett County	61	Elevated	15.7%	61	57	93
Bartow County<5%	58	Elevated	1.8%	46	54	39
Heard County<5%	54	Average	0.2%	89	86	4
Paulding County<5%	51	Average	2.9%	25	64	43
Clayton County<5%	49	Average	4.8%	18	100	64
Walton County<5%	48	Average	1.7%	82	18	50
Fayette County<5%	48	Average	1.9%	68	36	79
Coweta County<5%	48	Average	2.4%	32	50	71
Pickens County<5%	48	Average	0.6%	86	14	36
Carroll County<5%	46	Average	2.0%	54	61	21
Rockdale County<5%	44	Below Average	1.5%	7	79	61
Douglas County<5%	40	Below Average	2.4%	50	11	82
Cobb County	38	Below Average	12.4%	57	4	89
Spalding County<5%	37	Below Average	1.1%	11	43	68
Jasper County<5%	36	Below Average	0.3%	0	46	11
DeKalb CountyStabilizer	36	Below Average	12.2%	43	7	96
Butts County<5%	35	Below Average	0.4%	75	25	32
Henry County<5%	35	Below Average	4.0%	4	32	46
Haralson County<5%	28	Below Average	0.5%	14	21	14
Pike County<5%	20	Low Risk	0.3%	21	29	7
Meriwether County<5%	19	Low Risk	0.3%	29	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	53	18	55	23	55	95
2025-10	Hyp	52	20	55	23	48	95
2025-08	Hyp	56	17	55	23	74	95
2025-05	Hyp	60	25	55	26	82	95
2025-04	Ress	59	30	55	26	74	95
2025-02	Ress	59	45	55	29	58	95
2025-01	Hyp	60	42	55	29	62	95
2024-11	Hyp	57	40	55	28	48	95
2024-08	Hyp	53	42	55	28	26	95
2024-07	Ress	54	42	55	28	28	95
2024-05	Ress	54	42	55	28	30	95
2024-03	Hyp	59	53	55	29	47	95
2024-02	Exp	59	49	55	29	52	95
2023-12	Exp	59	42	55	33	56	95
2023-09	Exp	59	47	55	34	50	95
2023-08	Rec	59	46	55	34	50	95
2023-06	Rec	58	49	55	32	44	95
2023-05	Hyp	58	52	55	32	41	95
2023-03	Ress	60	67	55	36	35	95
2023-01	Ress	59	70	55	36	23	95
2022-12	Hyp	58	76	55	29	22	95
2022-11	Ress	59	80	55	29	20	95
2022-09	Ress	59	86	55	28	18	95
2022-06	Hyp	58	88	55	26	12	95
2022-05	Exp	58	87	55	26	10	95
2022-03	Exp	58	87	55	26	14	95
2021-12	Exp	58	78	55	25	21	93
2021-09	Exp	54	71	55	22	10	93
2021-06	Exp	56	73	55	22	23	93
2021-05	Rec	60	74	55	22	42	93
2021-03	Rec	58	68	55	20	40	93
2021-01	Exp	59	70	55	20	43	93
2020-11	Exp	59	61	55	20	52	94
2020-10	Rec	61	64	55	20	58	94
2020-08	Rec	62	72	55	19	59	94
2020-05	Rec	59	67	55	19	44	94
2020-02	Rec	59	78	55	20	32	94
2019-11	Rec	45	76	55	19	23	24
2019-08	Rec	47	82	55	19	26	24
2019-07	Hyp	45	77	55	19	23	24
2019-05	Hyp	46	86	55	18	20	24
2019-02	Hyp	44	81	55	18	10	24
2019-01	Hyp	44	80	55	18	13	24

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022