Rankings/Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12060Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Atlanta experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Atlanta's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permits per capita. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p95 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p63 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employment

p63 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.6%p61

Days on Market YoY

+7.7%p63

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.1%p88

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum16

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth23

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita63

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability25

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment63

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration95

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.2%	p16
Permit Growth	-16.1%	p23
Permits/1K Pop	5.26	p63
Affordability	0.24	p25
Employment	-0.0%	p63
Net AGI Migration	-$423K	p95

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-16.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+11.6%

Days on Market YoY+7.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	53	18	55	23	55	95
2025-10	Hyp	52	20	55	23	48	95
2025-08	Hyp	56	17	55	23	74	95
2025-05	Hyp	60	25	55	26	82	95
2025-04	Ress	59	30	55	26	74	95
2025-02	Ress	59	45	55	29	58	95
2025-01	Hyp	60	42	55	29	62	95
2024-11	Hyp	57	40	55	28	48	95
2024-08	Hyp	53	42	55	28	26	95
2024-07	Ress	54	42	55	28	28	95
2024-05	Ress	54	42	55	28	30	95
2024-03	Hyp	59	53	55	29	47	95
2024-02	Exp	59	49	55	29	52	95
2023-12	Exp	59	42	55	33	56	95
2023-09	Exp	59	47	55	34	50	95
2023-08	Rec	59	46	55	34	50	95
2023-06	Rec	58	49	55	32	44	95
2023-05	Hyp	58	52	55	32	41	95
2023-03	Ress	60	67	55	36	35	95
2023-01	Ress	59	70	55	36	23	95
2022-12	Hyp	58	76	55	29	22	95
2022-11	Ress	59	80	55	29	20	95
2022-09	Ress	59	86	55	28	18	95
2022-06	Hyp	58	88	55	26	12	95
2022-05	Exp	58	87	55	26	10	95
2022-03	Exp	58	87	55	26	14	95
2021-12	Exp	58	78	55	25	21	93
2021-09	Exp	54	71	55	22	10	93
2021-06	Exp	56	73	55	22	23	93
2021-05	Rec	60	74	55	22	42	93
2021-03	Rec	58	68	55	20	40	93
2021-01	Exp	59	70	55	20	43	93
2020-11	Exp	59	61	55	20	52	94
2020-10	Rec	61	64	55	20	58	94
2020-08	Rec	62	72	55	19	59	94
2020-05	Rec	59	67	55	19	44	94
2020-02	Rec	59	78	55	20	32	94
2019-11	Rec	45	76	55	19	23	24
2019-08	Rec	47	82	55	19	26	24
2019-07	Hyp	45	77	55	19	23	24
2019-05	Hyp	46	86	55	18	20	24
2019-02	Hyp	44	81	55	18	10	24
2019-01	Hyp	44	80	55	18	13	24

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022