Rankings/Athens-Clarke County, GA

Athens-Clarke County, GA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 12020Compare

Risk Rank: #131 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -19

51score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Athens experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 2 months·Previously: Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Athens's housing market shows average risk, ranking 131st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and employment. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p97 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p76 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p70 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +38% YoY with days on market up +38% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+38.0%p85

Days on Market YoY

+37.7%p92

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.6%p91

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum10

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth10

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita70

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability97

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment76

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration42

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.4%	p10
Permit Growth	-27.2%	p10
Permits/1K Pop	5.94	p70
Affordability	0.38	p97
Employment	-0.3%	p76
Net AGI Migration	+$29K	p42

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-27.2%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are already retreating and demand is weak. A correction may be underway — the market is contracting on both the supply and demand side.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+38.0%

Days on Market YoY+37.7%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 9 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Athens's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Clarke County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Madison County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.9Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Athens, GA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Clarke County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Madison County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Clarke CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	25.0%	0	100	100
Oconee County	56	Elevated	25.0%	67	33	67
Oglethorpe County	56	Elevated	25.0%	100	67	0
Madison CountyStabilizer	22	Low Risk	25.0%	33	0	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	68	15	94	97	80	42
2025-10	Hyp	70	24	94	97	79	42
2025-08	Hyp	60	35	94	97	7	42
2025-06	Ress	69	93	94	97	5	42
2025-04	Ress	71	97	94	97	16	42
2025-03	Hyp	73	97	94	97	25	42
2025-01	Hyp	68	91	94	97	4	42
2024-10	Hyp	65	46	94	97	29	42
2024-09	Ress	69	42	94	97	58	42
2024-07	Ress	70	86	94	97	16	42
2024-06	Hyp	63	59	94	95	5	42
2024-05	Ress	63	60	94	95	4	42
2024-03	Ress	66	76	94	95	4	42
2024-02	Hyp	65	76	94	95	3	42
2023-12	Exp	68	94	94	91	2	42
2023-10	Exp	66	87	94	91	2	42
2023-09	Rec	58	42	94	87	3	42
2023-07	Rec	64	54	94	87	24	42
2023-06	Hyp	63	61	94	86	13	42
2023-04	Hyp	64	68	94	86	9	42
2023-01	Ress	70	95	94	85	25	42
2022-11	Ress	79	95	94	91	68	42
2022-08	Hyp	77	88	94	88	67	42
2022-06	Exp	80	89	94	86	88	42
2022-04	Exp	79	83	94	86	86	42
2022-01	Rec	77	68	94	83	94	42
2021-11	Rec	70	82	94	80	40	39
2021-10	Exp	68	81	94	80	32	39
2021-08	Exp	68	67	94	77	51	39
2021-05	Exp	73	79	94	79	64	39
2021-04	Rec	69	77	94	79	44	39
2021-02	Rec	64	48	94	78	41	39
2020-11	Rec	73	65	94	90	61	48
2020-08	Rec	76	77	94	90	64	48
2020-05	Exp	74	93	94	90	39	48
2020-03	Exp	75	97	94	91	36	48
2019-12	Rec	76	74	94	89	74	44
2019-10	Rec	79	85	94	89	81	44
2019-09	Exp	81	91	94	90	87	44
2019-07	Exp	82	85	94	90	98	44
2019-06	Rec	81	79	94	89	98	44
2019-04	Rec	79	78	94	89	87	44
2019-03	Exp	83	89	94	89	98	44
2019-01	Exp	83	93	94	89	96	44

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022