Rankings/Asheville, NC

Asheville, NC

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 11700Compare

Risk Rank: #23 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— +2

65score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Asheville's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 23rd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Asheville experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp99

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap93

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp91

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+7.5%p56

Days on Market YoY

+8.2%p64

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.8%p35

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.5%p54

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+47.6%p91

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

11.46p93

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.42p99

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p38

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$212Kp13

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+47.6%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorRetail Trade 19.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Asheville's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Henderson County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Madison County anchors the lower end.

Moderate8.3Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Asheville, NC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Henderson County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Madison County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Buncombe County	62	Elevated	66.2%	100	0	100
Henderson CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	28.6%	50	50	50
Madison CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	5.3%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	60	40	87	99	26	13
2025-12	Ress	37	8	7	99	13	13
2025-10	Ress	49	2	83	97	3	15
2025-09	Hyp	60	3	83	97	66	15
2025-07	Ress	64	4	83	97	92	15
2025-05	Ress	67	19	83	99	93	15
2025-02	Ress	74	67	83	98	90	15
2024-12	Hyp	80	94	83	99	95	15
2024-10	Hyp	78	75	83	99	100	15
2024-09	Ress	64	50	83	99	43	15
2024-07	Ress	61	39	83	99	34	15
2024-06	Hyp	62	37	83	99	41	15
2024-04	Ress	60	43	83	99	25	15
2024-02	Ress	56	12	83	97	35	15
2024-01	Hyp	56	16	83	97	34	15
2023-11	Hyp	57	35	83	99	17	15
2023-10	Exp	57	35	83	99	17	15
2023-09	Rec	64	44	83	99	48	15
2023-07	Rec	63	53	83	99	32	15
2023-06	Hyp	68	64	83	99	52	15
2023-04	Ress	68	77	83	99	40	15
2023-02	Ress	66	76	83	99	31	15
2022-12	Hyp	73	91	83	99	54	15
2022-10	Exp	73	88	83	99	59	15
2022-08	Exp	70	86	83	99	43	15
2022-05	Exp	68	80	83	99	38	15
2022-02	Rec	68	74	83	99	40	15
2021-12	Rec	68	74	84	99	34	20
2021-10	Exp	64	73	84	99	15	20
2021-08	Exp	62	70	84	99	6	20
2021-05	Rec	62	68	84	99	5	20
2021-03	Rec	67	66	84	99	39	20
2021-02	Exp	69	66	84	99	49	20
2020-12	Exp	65	51	84	99	46	17
2020-11	Rec	66	44	84	99	57	17
2020-09	Rec	68	37	84	99	76	17
2020-06	Exp	71	46	84	99	89	17
2020-04	Exp	70	40	84	99	87	17
2020-03	Rec	68	30	84	99	85	17
2020-01	Rec	65	30	84	99	66	17
2019-10	Rec	67	70	84	100	38	15
2019-07	Exp	61	47	84	100	29	15
2019-05	Exp	66	61	84	100	41	15
2019-03	Rec	64	70	84	100	19	15
2019-01	Rec	62	62	84	100	16	15

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023