Rankings/Asheville, NC

Asheville, NC

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 11700Compare

Risk Rank: #261 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -43

37score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Asheville experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 3 months·Previously: Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Asheville's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 261st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p98 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p83 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migration

p14 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +67% YoY with days on market up +2% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+67.2%p95

Days on Market YoY

+2.2%p52

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p77

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum5

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth7

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita83

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability98

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment13

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration14

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-1.9%	p5
Permit Growth	-31.7%	p7
Permits/1K Pop	7.73	p83
Affordability	0.39	p98
Employment	+1.3%	p13
Net AGI Migration	+$262K	p14

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-31.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+67.2%

Days on Market YoY+2.2%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 23 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Asheville's counties diverge significantly — Henderson County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Madison County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High26.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Asheville, NC shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Henderson County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Madison County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Henderson CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	100	100	50
Buncombe County	50	Average	33.3%	0	50	100
Madison CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	50	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	51	3	83	97	13	15
2025-09	Hyp	60	3	83	97	66	15
2025-07	Ress	64	4	83	97	92	15
2025-05	Ress	67	19	83	99	93	15
2025-02	Ress	74	67	83	98	90	15
2024-12	Hyp	80	94	83	99	95	15
2024-10	Hyp	78	75	83	99	100	15
2024-09	Ress	64	50	83	99	43	15
2024-07	Ress	61	39	83	99	34	15
2024-06	Hyp	62	37	83	99	41	15
2024-04	Ress	60	43	83	99	25	15
2024-02	Ress	56	12	83	97	35	15
2024-01	Hyp	56	16	83	97	34	15
2023-11	Hyp	57	35	83	99	17	15
2023-10	Exp	57	35	83	99	17	15
2023-09	Rec	64	44	83	99	48	15
2023-07	Rec	63	53	83	99	32	15
2023-06	Hyp	68	64	83	99	52	15
2023-04	Ress	68	77	83	99	40	15
2023-02	Ress	66	76	83	99	31	15
2022-12	Hyp	73	91	83	99	54	15
2022-10	Exp	73	88	83	99	59	15
2022-08	Exp	70	86	83	99	43	15
2022-05	Exp	68	80	83	99	38	15
2022-02	Rec	68	74	83	99	40	15
2021-12	Rec	68	74	84	99	34	20
2021-10	Exp	64	73	84	99	15	20
2021-08	Exp	62	70	84	99	6	20
2021-05	Rec	62	68	84	99	5	20
2021-03	Rec	67	66	84	99	39	20
2021-02	Exp	69	66	84	99	49	20
2020-12	Exp	65	51	84	99	46	17
2020-11	Rec	66	44	84	99	57	17
2020-09	Rec	68	37	84	99	76	17
2020-06	Exp	71	46	84	99	89	17
2020-04	Exp	70	40	84	99	87	17
2020-03	Rec	68	30	84	99	85	17
2020-01	Rec	65	30	84	99	66	17
2019-10	Rec	67	70	84	100	38	15
2019-07	Exp	61	47	84	100	29	15
2019-05	Exp	66	61	84	100	41	15
2019-03	Rec	64	70	84	100	19	15
2019-01	Rec	62	62	84	100	16	15

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022