Rankings/Ann Arbor, MI

Ann Arbor, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 11460Compare

Risk Rank: #108 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +13

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Ann Arbor experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 3 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Ann Arbor's housing market shows average risk, ranking 108th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permit growth. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p91 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p89 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p50 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +27% YoY with days on market up +11% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+27.4%p77

Days on Market YoY

+11.5%p70

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.4%p60

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum45

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth89

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita50

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability8

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment37

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.1%	p45
Permit Growth	+34.7%	p89
Permits/1K Pop	3.76	p50
Affordability	0.21	p8
Employment	+0.6%	p37
Net AGI Migration	-$191K	p91

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+34.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY+27.4%

Days on Market YoY+11.5%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	39	51	12	7	33	91
2025-09	Rec	37	56	12	7	17	91
2025-07	Hyp	38	55	12	8	20	91
2025-05	Ress	40	71	12	8	20	91
2025-03	Ress	40	60	12	7	28	91
2025-02	Hyp	41	64	12	7	29	91
2024-12	Rec	40	54	12	8	34	91
2024-10	Hyp	42	50	12	8	51	91
2024-09	Ress	46	50	12	8	75	91
2024-07	Ress	45	58	12	8	61	91
2024-05	Exp	45	68	12	8	50	91
2024-03	Rec	45	72	12	9	46	91
2024-01	Rec	47	86	12	9	45	91
2023-12	Exp	49	86	12	11	53	91
2023-10	Exp	46	78	12	11	44	91
2023-09	Rec	45	59	12	10	55	91
2023-07	Rec	34	35	12	10	14	91
2023-04	Rec	46	55	12	10	65	91
2023-03	Hyp	42	24	12	8	74	91
2023-01	Hyp	37	24	12	8	48	91
2022-12	Exp	43	27	12	11	79	91
2022-11	Hyp	42	25	12	11	76	91
2022-10	Exp	43	25	12	11	80	91
2022-08	Exp	42	50	12	15	45	91
2022-05	Exp	32	14	12	12	24	91
2022-02	Exp	36	12	12	13	48	91
2022-01	Rec	32	13	12	13	22	91
2021-11	Rec	32	11	12	9	34	90
2021-09	Exp	34	11	12	11	40	90
2021-07	Exp	32	11	12	11	26	90
2021-05	Rec	34	15	12	11	37	90
2021-03	Rec	42	12	12	11	91	90
2021-02	Exp	42	11	12	11	87	90
2020-12	Exp	42	13	12	7	94	85
2020-11	Rec	41	12	12	7	93	85
2020-09	Rec	41	13	12	8	91	85
2020-07	Exp	40	8	12	8	91	85
2020-05	Exp	39	5	12	8	84	85
2020-04	Rec	38	5	12	8	80	85
2020-02	Rec	37	15	12	9	62	85
2020-01	Exp	35	19	12	9	47	85
2019-11	Exp	35	17	12	9	40	92
2019-10	Rec	34	18	12	9	33	92
2019-08	Rec	33	30	12	9	17	92
2019-07	Hyp	32	27	12	9	15	92
2019-05	Hyp	35	47	12	10	9	92
2019-04	Ress	40	52	12	10	35	92
2019-02	Ress	45	74	12	9	45	92
2019-01	Ress	51	81	12	9	73	92

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022