Rankings/Anchorage, AK

Anchorage, AK

NeutralTier 1CBSA 11260Compare

Risk Rank: #165 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +5

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Anchorage's housing market shows average risk, ranking 165th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Anchorage experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp83

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp78

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump71

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+7.7%p57

Days on Market YoY

-6.0%p35

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p77

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.3%p71

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-2.1%p45

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.91p4

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p2

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.6%p83

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$32Kp78

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-2.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 18%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	52	88	60	3	79	78
2025-12	Rec	58	95	73	3	97	78
2025-11	Exp	50	89	34	3	91	81
2025-09	Exp	48	82	34	3	84	81
2025-08	Rec	42	73	34	3	56	81
2025-06	Rec	39	69	34	3	43	81
2025-03	Ress	25	10	34	2	17	81
2025-01	Hyp	28	36	34	2	12	81
2024-12	Rec	30	44	34	2	12	81
2024-10	Hyp	29	44	34	2	8	81
2024-08	Hyp	36	74	34	2	18	81
2024-06	Ress	41	78	34	3	47	81
2024-04	Ress	37	67	34	3	31	81
2024-03	Exp	29	26	34	3	23	81
2024-01	Exp	29	19	34	3	31	81
2023-10	Exp	33	45	34	3	32	81
2023-07	Exp	32	53	34	4	15	81
2023-06	Rec	34	57	34	4	21	81
2023-04	Rec	35	39	34	4	47	81
2023-03	Ress	41	55	34	5	64	81
2023-01	Hyp	40	44	34	5	70	81
2022-12	Exp	38	24	34	3	81	81
2022-10	Rec	38	28	34	3	77	81
2022-08	Rec	33	6	34	4	68	81
2022-07	Exp	35	5	34	4	79	81
2022-05	Exp	32	8	34	4	60	81
2022-02	Rec	35	8	34	4	77	81
2021-12	Rec	30	4	34	5	55	80
2021-10	Exp	32	4	34	5	62	80
2021-08	Exp	26	7	34	5	28	80
2021-05	Exp	34	9	34	7	66	80
2021-02	Rec	32	7	34	7	58	80
2020-12	Rec	36	11	34	8	67	89
2020-09	Rec	40	16	34	9	84	89
2020-07	Exp	39	11	34	9	86	89
2020-05	Exp	35	7	34	9	68	89
2020-04	Rec	36	6	34	9	71	89
2020-02	Rec	39	9	34	9	86	89
2020-01	Exp	37	10	34	9	75	89
2019-11	Exp	36	3	34	10	78	88
2019-08	Rec	36	10	34	10	66	88
2019-06	Rec	40	19	34	10	81	88
2019-03	Exp	39	14	34	10	82	88
2019-01	Exp	40	13	34	10	89	88

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023