Rankings/Anchorage, AK

Anchorage, AK

NeutralTier 1CBSA 11260Compare

Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +28

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Anchorage experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Expansion

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Anchorage's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p97 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p93 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p81 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-4.6%p44

Days on Market YoY

+3.7%p56

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.8%p53

Months in status47

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum93

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth73

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita4

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability3

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment97

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration81

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.8%	p93
Permit Growth	+12.1%	p73
Permits/1K Pop	0.97	p4
Affordability	0.19	p3
Employment	-1.5%	p97
Net AGI Migration	-$59K	p81

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+12.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-4.6%

Days on Market YoY+3.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 8 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	50	89	34	3	91	81
2025-09	Exp	48	82	34	3	84	81
2025-08	Rec	42	73	34	3	56	81
2025-06	Rec	39	69	34	3	43	81
2025-03	Ress	25	10	34	2	17	81
2025-01	Hyp	28	36	34	2	12	81
2024-12	Rec	30	44	34	2	12	81
2024-10	Hyp	29	44	34	2	8	81
2024-08	Hyp	36	74	34	2	18	81
2024-06	Ress	41	78	34	3	47	81
2024-04	Ress	37	67	34	3	31	81
2024-03	Exp	29	26	34	3	23	81
2024-01	Exp	29	19	34	3	31	81
2023-10	Exp	33	45	34	3	32	81
2023-07	Exp	32	53	34	4	15	81
2023-06	Rec	34	57	34	4	21	81
2023-04	Rec	35	39	34	4	47	81
2023-03	Ress	41	55	34	5	64	81
2023-01	Hyp	40	44	34	5	70	81
2022-12	Exp	38	24	34	3	81	81
2022-10	Rec	38	28	34	3	77	81
2022-08	Rec	33	6	34	4	68	81
2022-07	Exp	35	5	34	4	79	81
2022-05	Exp	32	8	34	4	60	81
2022-02	Rec	35	8	34	4	77	81
2021-12	Rec	30	4	34	5	55	80
2021-10	Exp	32	4	34	5	62	80
2021-08	Exp	26	7	34	5	28	80
2021-05	Exp	34	9	34	7	66	80
2021-02	Rec	32	7	34	7	58	80
2020-12	Rec	36	11	34	8	67	89
2020-09	Rec	40	16	34	9	84	89
2020-07	Exp	39	11	34	9	86	89
2020-05	Exp	35	7	34	9	68	89
2020-04	Rec	36	6	34	9	71	89
2020-02	Rec	39	9	34	9	86	89
2020-01	Exp	37	10	34	9	75	89
2019-11	Exp	36	3	34	10	78	88
2019-08	Rec	36	10	34	10	66	88
2019-06	Rec	40	19	34	10	81	88
2019-03	Exp	39	14	34	10	82	88
2019-01	Exp	40	13	34	10	89	88

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022