Rankings/Amarillo, TX

Amarillo, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 11100Compare

Risk Rank: #60 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +8

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Amarillo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 60th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (-25% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Amarillo experienced a market correction from late 2023 through early 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is declining (-25% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp76

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp75

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap60

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-25% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-24.8%p22

Days on Market YoY

-14.0%p23

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.5%p94

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.5%p56

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+17.4%p75

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

5.03p60

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p31

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.4%p76

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$10Kp48

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+17.4%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 50.1%

3 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	65	93	87	34	58	48
2025-12	Rec	39	28	54	29	21	48
2025-09	Rec	50	34	96	31	23	56
2025-06	Rec	46	24	96	31	15	56
2025-05	Exp	47	27	96	31	17	56
2025-03	Exp	51	33	96	33	32	56
2025-02	Hyp	48	36	96	33	13	56
2025-01	Rec	50	38	96	33	18	56
2024-12	Hyp	49	26	96	33	25	56
2024-10	Hyp	45	10	96	33	20	56
2024-07	Hyp	53	17	96	34	60	56
2024-04	Hyp	49	14	96	35	37	56
2024-01	Ress	51	10	96	35	50	56
2023-11	Ress	55	35	96	49	37	56
2023-09	Hyp	54	43	96	49	25	56
2023-07	Hyp	58	49	96	49	44	56
2023-04	Ress	64	50	96	50	77	56
2023-02	Ress	60	38	96	51	64	56
2022-11	Ress	60	35	96	37	79	56
2022-09	Hyp	59	23	96	35	87	56
2022-07	Hyp	60	40	96	35	78	56
2022-06	Exp	59	34	96	37	73	56
2022-04	Exp	54	30	96	37	52	56
2022-01	Exp	64	48	96	40	86	56
2021-10	Exp	58	47	96	48	53	52
2021-07	Exp	62	34	96	46	87	52
2021-04	Rec	57	26	96	48	65	52
2021-02	Rec	48	24	96	48	13	52
2021-01	Exp	48	23	96	48	13	52
2020-11	Exp	48	16	96	55	19	48
2020-10	Rec	48	16	96	55	14	48
2020-08	Rec	45	7	96	54	9	48
2020-07	Exp	46	10	96	54	10	48
2020-05	Exp	47	17	96	58	8	48
2020-04	Rec	50	19	96	58	21	48
2020-02	Rec	55	15	96	58	58	48
2019-11	Rec	53	15	96	59	43	49
2019-08	Rec	55	7	96	59	64	49
2019-05	Rec	52	5	96	59	45	49
2019-04	Exp	52	7	96	58	46	49
2019-02	Exp	58	15	96	61	73	49
2019-01	Exp	61	18	96	61	84	49

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023