Rankings/Amarillo, TX

Amarillo, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 11100Compare

Risk Rank: #203 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Amarillo experienced a market correction from late 2023 through early 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 7 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Amarillo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 7 months. Inventory is growing moderately (-13% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and migration. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p57 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migration

p56 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p55 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-13% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-13.3%p33

Days on Market YoY

-13.9%p24

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.2%p93

Months in status28

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum44

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth55

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita57

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability33

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment20

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration56

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.1%	p44
Permit Growth	+0.1%	p55
Permits/1K Pop	4.78	p57
Affordability	0.25	p33
Employment	+1.0%	p20
Net AGI Migration	+$4K	p56

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+0.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-13.3%

Days on Market YoY-13.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 10 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Amarillo's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Potter County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Randall County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 5 counties scored

Amarillo, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Potter County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Randall County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Potter CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	0	100	100
Armstrong CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Carson County	50	Average	33.3%	100	50	0
Oldham CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Randall CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	53	42	96	31	35	56
2025-09	Rec	50	34	96	31	23	56
2025-06	Rec	46	24	96	31	15	56
2025-05	Exp	47	27	96	31	17	56
2025-03	Exp	51	33	96	33	32	56
2025-02	Hyp	48	36	96	33	13	56
2025-01	Rec	50	38	96	33	18	56
2024-12	Hyp	49	26	96	33	25	56
2024-10	Hyp	45	10	96	33	20	56
2024-07	Hyp	53	17	96	34	60	56
2024-04	Hyp	49	14	96	35	37	56
2024-01	Ress	51	10	96	35	50	56
2023-11	Ress	55	35	96	49	37	56
2023-09	Hyp	54	43	96	49	25	56
2023-07	Hyp	58	49	96	49	44	56
2023-04	Ress	64	50	96	50	77	56
2023-02	Ress	60	38	96	51	64	56
2022-11	Ress	60	35	96	37	79	56
2022-09	Hyp	59	23	96	35	87	56
2022-07	Hyp	60	40	96	35	78	56
2022-06	Exp	59	34	96	37	73	56
2022-04	Exp	54	30	96	37	52	56
2022-01	Exp	64	48	96	40	86	56
2021-10	Exp	58	47	96	48	53	52
2021-07	Exp	62	34	96	46	87	52
2021-04	Rec	57	26	96	48	65	52
2021-02	Rec	48	24	96	48	13	52
2021-01	Exp	48	23	96	48	13	52
2020-11	Exp	48	16	96	55	19	48
2020-10	Rec	48	16	96	55	14	48
2020-08	Rec	45	7	96	54	9	48
2020-07	Exp	46	10	96	54	10	48
2020-05	Exp	47	17	96	58	8	48
2020-04	Rec	50	19	96	58	21	48
2020-02	Rec	55	15	96	58	58	48
2019-11	Rec	53	15	96	59	43	49
2019-08	Rec	55	7	96	59	64	49
2019-05	Rec	52	5	96	59	45	49
2019-04	Exp	52	7	96	58	46	49
2019-02	Exp	58	15	96	61	73	49
2019-01	Exp	61	18	96	61	84	49

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022