Rankings/Amarillo, TX

Amarillo, TX

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 11100Compare

Risk Rank: #17 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +18

65score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Amarillo's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 17th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (-26% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Amarillo experienced a market correction from late 2023 through early 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-26% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump90

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp87

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap69

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-26% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-26.5%p21

Days on Market YoY

-11.5%p27

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.0%p79

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+3.4%p90

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+30.0%p87

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.88p69

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p34

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

-0.1%p60

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$10Kp48

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+30.0%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 50.1%

3 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	39	28	54	29	21	48
2025-10	Rec	55	40	96	31	51	56
2025-07	Rec	46	24	96	31	14	56
2025-05	Exp	47	27	96	31	17	56
2025-03	Exp	51	33	96	33	32	56
2025-02	Hyp	48	36	96	33	13	56
2025-01	Rec	50	38	96	33	18	56
2024-12	Hyp	49	26	96	33	25	56
2024-10	Hyp	45	10	96	33	20	56
2024-07	Hyp	53	17	96	34	60	56
2024-04	Hyp	49	14	96	35	37	56
2024-01	Ress	51	10	96	35	50	56
2023-11	Ress	55	35	96	49	37	56
2023-09	Hyp	54	43	96	49	25	56
2023-07	Hyp	58	49	96	49	44	56
2023-04	Ress	64	50	96	50	77	56
2023-02	Ress	60	38	96	51	64	56
2022-11	Ress	60	35	96	37	79	56
2022-09	Hyp	59	23	96	35	87	56
2022-07	Hyp	60	40	96	35	78	56
2022-06	Exp	59	34	96	37	73	56
2022-04	Exp	54	30	96	37	52	56
2022-01	Exp	64	48	96	40	86	56
2021-10	Exp	58	47	96	48	53	52
2021-07	Exp	62	34	96	46	87	52
2021-04	Rec	57	26	96	48	65	52
2021-02	Rec	48	24	96	48	13	52
2021-01	Exp	48	23	96	48	13	52
2020-11	Exp	48	16	96	55	19	48
2020-10	Rec	48	16	96	55	14	48
2020-08	Rec	45	7	96	54	9	48
2020-07	Exp	46	10	96	54	10	48
2020-05	Exp	47	17	96	58	8	48
2020-04	Rec	50	19	96	58	21	48
2020-02	Rec	55	15	96	58	58	48
2019-11	Rec	53	15	96	59	43	49
2019-08	Rec	55	7	96	59	64	49
2019-05	Rec	52	5	96	59	45	49
2019-04	Exp	52	7	96	58	46	49
2019-02	Exp	58	15	96	61	73	49
2019-01	Exp	61	18	96	61	84	49

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023