Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
Cycle Phase
Allentown experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.
Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals
Allentown's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.
Executive Summary
Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.
Top Risk Drivers (This Month)
Market Signals
Inventory is roughly flat (-5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
Factor Breakdown
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Underlying Values
| Metric | Value | Pctile |
|---|---|---|
| Price Momentum | +4.7% | p85 |
| Permit Growth | +28.8% | p86 |
| Permits/1K Pop | 2.83 | p35 |
| Affordability | 0.23 | p16 |
| Employment | +1.0% | p20 |
| Net AGI Migration | +$132K | p23 |
National ContextDoes not affect score
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local SignalsDoes not affect score
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
SurgeRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Based on limited permit volume
Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.
Liquidity
Liquidity
Internal Structure
Allentown's counties diverge significantly — Warren County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Northampton County, making the metro average potentially misleading.
Allentown, PA-NJ shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Warren County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Northampton County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).
| County | Score ▼ |
|---|---|
Warren CountyRisk Driver | 89 |
Lehigh County | 55 |
Carbon County | 33 |
Northampton CountyStabilizer | 22 |
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 45 |
| 2025-09 | 44 |
| 2025-07 | 46 |
| 2025-06 | 45 |
| 2025-04 | 45 |
| 2025-02 | 44 |
| 2025-01 | 45 |
| 2024-12 | 38 |
| 2024-10 | 38 |
| 2024-09 | 39 |
| 2024-07 | 40 |
| 2024-06 | 46 |
| 2024-04 | 51 |
| 2024-03 | 53 |
| 2024-01 | 53 |
| 2023-10 | 54 |
| 2023-08 | 55 |
| 2023-06 | 49 |
| 2023-03 | 48 |
| 2023-02 | 47 |
| 2022-12 | 42 |
| 2022-11 | 45 |
| 2022-09 | 44 |
| 2022-08 | 41 |
| 2022-06 | 38 |
| 2022-03 | 40 |
| 2022-01 | 40 |
| 2021-11 | 38 |
| 2021-09 | 38 |
| 2021-07 | 38 |
| 2021-04 | 37 |
| 2021-03 | 47 |
| 2021-01 | 48 |
| 2020-12 | 48 |
| 2020-10 | 49 |
| 2020-08 | 48 |
| 2020-06 | 46 |
| 2020-03 | 41 |
| 2019-12 | 38 |
| 2019-09 | 40 |
| 2019-07 | 38 |
| 2019-05 | 39 |
| 2019-04 | 39 |
| 2019-03 | 36 |
| 2019-01 | 39 |