Rankings/Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 10900Compare

Risk Rank: #193 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +6

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Allentown's housing market shows average risk, ranking 193rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Allentown experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump86

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp86

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap34

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-4.8%p43

Days on Market YoY

+3.9%p56

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.0%p33

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.1%p86

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+28.8%p86

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.83p34

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p17

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.0%p20

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$132Kp23

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+28.8%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 24.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Allentown's counties diverge significantly — Warren County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Northampton County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High25.5Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Allentown, PA-NJ shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Warren County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Northampton County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Warren CountyRisk Driver	92	High Risk	12.7%	100	67	100
Lehigh County	58	Elevated	43.4%	33	100	33
Carbon County	33	Below Average	7.5%	67	33	0
Northampton CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	36.5%	0	0	67

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	45	92	87	15	17	24
2025-09	Rec	44	95	87	15	11	24
2025-07	Rec	46	95	87	15	18	24
2025-06	Ress	45	92	87	15	18	24
2025-04	Rec	45	82	87	15	29	24
2025-02	Rec	44	83	87	15	21	24
2025-01	Hyp	45	78	87	15	29	24
2024-12	Rec	38	45	87	13	24	24
2024-10	Rec	38	60	87	13	11	24
2024-09	Ress	39	57	87	12	20	24
2024-07	Ress	40	57	87	12	24	24
2024-06	Hyp	46	79	87	13	39	24
2024-04	Hyp	51	86	87	13	60	24
2024-03	Exp	53	91	87	14	65	24
2024-01	Exp	53	86	87	14	74	24
2023-10	Exp	54	88	87	12	80	24
2023-08	Rec	55	85	87	12	88	24
2023-06	Rec	49	67	87	9	71	24
2023-03	Rec	48	68	87	10	63	24
2023-02	Ress	47	64	87	10	60	24
2022-12	Ress	42	45	87	12	50	24
2022-11	Rec	45	48	87	12	62	24
2022-09	Rec	44	60	87	12	44	24
2022-08	Exp	41	58	87	12	32	24
2022-06	Exp	38	33	87	11	37	24
2022-03	Exp	40	41	87	12	42	24
2022-01	Rec	40	40	87	12	43	24
2021-11	Rec	38	43	87	9	33	20
2021-09	Exp	38	49	87	10	26	20
2021-07	Exp	38	52	87	10	27	20
2021-04	Exp	37	66	87	9	7	20
2021-03	Rec	47	80	87	9	52	20
2021-01	Rec	48	78	87	9	59	20
2020-12	Exp	48	73	87	5	64	23
2020-10	Exp	49	75	87	5	68	23
2020-08	Rec	48	70	87	4	72	23
2020-06	Rec	46	48	87	4	83	23
2020-03	Rec	41	34	87	3	63	23
2019-12	Rec	38	28	87	4	44	30
2019-09	Rec	40	44	87	4	44	30
2019-07	Exp	38	37	87	4	37	30
2019-05	Exp	39	37	87	4	43	30
2019-04	Hyp	39	36	87	4	45	30
2019-03	Exp	36	34	87	3	29	30
2019-01	Exp	39	39	87	3	40	30

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022